First up, the best Trainer is not necessarily the trainer with the most winner. Some trainers get a stock of horses worth a fair few million, some have a stock of horses worth a few hundred thousand. It would be like comparing two racing car teams where one was stocked with a bunch of Lamborghini’s and the other was stocking some humble Skoda’s. What represents a great trainer, in our eyes, is a trainer who can train his horses, whatever calibre they may be, and place them in races where conditions they are most likely to win.
This can be assessed by a trainer’s performance with our Top Rated horse in each race (affectionately known as RTR1 or RTR Top rated). Considering the fact that each of our Ratings takes into account hundreds of statistics, a trainer managing to place their horse in a race where it comes out top rated is probably more than dumb luck.
As in previous blog posts about our ‘Best courses for the Ratings’ see these 1,2,3 , best could be interpreted as the highest strike rate, it could be the highest profitability or it could be the highest ROI (return on investment.)
So we will use the newly launched ProStats to help us dig into the data, and we will slice it all three ways. By strike rate. By P&L. By ROI. If a trainer comes in the top 10 we will give them arbitrary points, 10 for being Top Ranked, 1 for being 10th Ranked. Also to avoid a trainers who have had a too few RTR top rated runs, we will limit our query to those trainers with more than 50 qualifiers (depicted by the ‘Runs: >= 50’ below)
By Strike Rate – 10 Points to Roger Charlton
By Profit and Loss – 10 Points to William Haggas
By ROI – 10 Points to G M Lyons
This is going to be close… time to create a trusty excel table to help us find this year’s top Flat trainer!
Well a dead heat is not what I was expecting, so we will have to throw in a 4th metric, ‘Number of Winners’. Considering we are only interested in the, three trainers on 23 points we might as well add a filter to only include those three trainers.
By number of winners – and the winner is William Haggas
Just for fun – the Top 3 Flat Trainers 2017 as a Betting System
Hakeem was the biggest TOP RATED winner for William Haggas. On debut he was allowed to go off at 17.84 BFSP and under a strong ride he stayed on well to beat his stablemate and shorter priced runner Alwahsh. This shows how the ratings don’t take the market into account which is why we land plenty of big priced TOP RATED winners!
Daphne was another great TOP RATED winner for William Haggas. In a competitive Newbury handicap , Ryan Moore got a great tune out of Daphne in the Queen’s colours and she stayed on well enough to beat the Frankie Dettori ridden Weekender who was the bookies favourite. A great straight forecast for the ratings!
If you want to be able to run your own ProStats queries like this and take advantage of our statistics based Ratings check out the various membership levels.