Cheltenham (Friday 14th November) Review

Normally, our Big Race Reviews are reserved for Premium and Pro Members only — the people who like to get under the skin of every performance, spot future winners early, and understand why races unfold the way they do.

But today, we’re doing something different. We’re sharing the full Cheltenham Big Race Reviews (for Friday) with everyone — including our Free Members and visitors — so you can see the depth of insight that goes into every post-race breakdown.

These aren’t summaries. They’re analysis. We look at who was backed and why, who got the right ride, and who’ll be worth following next time. Premium and Pro Members get these for most big races and even some mid-week events that have produced interesting performances.

? Race 1 — 2m5f Conditional Jockeys’ Handicap Hurdle 

Pre-race:
Rain-softened ground added an early layer of intrigue to the opening race of Cheltenham’s three-day meeting. The pace looked strong on paper, with King of the Road under Beau Morgan going forward, stretching the field out quickly. One of the market principals, Marlacoo, was dropped right out the back under cautious handling, while most appeared to settle pretty well.

In-running:
Despite the ground, they went an honest gallop. As they turned for home, a wall of horses still held chances: Walkadina, A Pai De Nom, Lucky Manifest, and As Legends Have It were all pressing forward, with Marlacoo trying to come widest of all. Walkadina travelled best at one stage but flattened out late, leaving A Pai De Nom and As Legends Have It to fight it out up the hill before the latter got tired and faded back to 3rd.

Post-race analysis:
A Pai De Nom, under a composed Tristan Durrell, straightened up well after wandering on the run-in and found plenty to score — franking the form of Gentleman Toboot, who’d beaten him at Newton Abbot last time. Lucky Manifest ran on well for second, and As Legends Have It held third after briefly threatening.

One More Chance:
? Norman Fletcher — caught the eye making good ground before fading late. Dropping him back in trip on better ground could unlock more.

Trainer takeaway:
A winner straight on the board for Dan Skelton, who continues to make his intentions clear. As mentioned in yesterday’s email, this team looks set to challenge, if not surpass, Nicholls and Henderson as Britain’s top training force in the next few seasons.

? Race 2 — 2m4f Veterans’ Handicap Chase (Cheltenham)

Pre-Race:
In the final 10 minutes before the off, it wasn’t clear whether Fugitif or Gunsight Ridge would head the market — both trading as favourite at various points. In the end, punters called it right: they jumped off joint-favourites at 7/2.

Early Stages:
As expected, Eldorado Allen and Escaria Ten went forward.
Can You Call, Fugitif, Gunsight Ridge, and Numitor formed a midfield line, while Dreal Deal (ridden with trademark patience) and Mister Coffey were dropped out the back.

Most jumped soundly on the first circuit, barring a minor mistake from Escaria Ten at the last on the first circuit.

Mid-Race:
With four to jump, Eldorado Allen began to apply pressure. Horses behind him started to come off the bridle:

• Gunsight Ridge moved into second,

• Can You Call travelled into third,

• Fugitif held fourth but looked one-paced,

• Escaria Ten struggled,

• Mister Coffey crept closer,

• Dreal Deal still hadn’t latched on.

Turning In:
Eldorado Allen kept stretching them with another fluent jump. Everything in behind was being asked for effort — including Gunsight Ridge and Fugitif.
The ones travelling best were Can You Call, and coming from way back, Mister Coffey who was making his customary relentless late headway.

Finish:
Despite the closers, Eldorado Allen produced a faultless round of jumping and effectively jumped them into submission.
He was never stopping.

Official placings:
? El Dorado Allen
? Mister Coffey (eye-catching, again…)
? Can You Call
4️⃣ Gunsight Ridge
5️⃣ Fugitif

Post-Race Takeaway:

• El Dorado Allen bounces back to winning ways — his first win since the 2022 Denman Chase. His jumping made the difference.

• Mister Coffey… what can you say? Still winless, still travelling like a dream, still finishing second.
  He’ll always be a hostage to pace and track position — and 3m3f would have suited him far better today.

• Fugitif was disappointing.

Analyst’s Note — A Correction on Mister Coffey

Racing TV suggested that Mister Coffey’s second today was “his best run in a long time.”
That’s simply not true — and anyone who’s followed him properly will know it.

Let’s compare:

? Two runs ago at Cheltenham, he finished second to Stumptown, a 157-rated horse.

• He was only beaten a length.

• That was a far deeper race, against a far higher-rated rival.

? Before that, he finished second to Sweet David, a highly promising five-year-old coming over from France — not an ageing veteran.

• Again, a performance of much more substance than today.

? Today, he finished second to Eldorado Allen, an 11-year-old rated 142.

• Solid run, yes.

• But nowhere near the level of his efforts behind Stumptown and Sweet David.

So no — this was not Mister Coffey’s “best run in a long time.”
It was simply the latest chapter in a long-running theme with him:

travels strongly, does everything right… but finds one too good.

It also shows the Racing TV pundit clearly hasn’t been watching his cross-country runs.

? 2:20 – 3m1f Novices’ Chase

Pre-Race:
This looked a straightforward four-runner novice chase after Double Powerful departed very early, effectively leaving a tactical three-way between Leave of Absence, Isaac Des Obeaux, and One Big Bang, with Wade Out in last as wasn’t jumping well.

During the Race:
Leave of Absence went forward with Isaac Des Obeaux travelling strongly on his girth. However, approaching three out, Leave of Absence found absolutely nothing and dropped away alarmingly tamely — clearly something not right there.

That left the race at the mercy of the front two.

• Isaac Des Obeaux

• One Big Bang

Wade Out had been struggling, off the bridle a long way from home, but credit to Sean Bowen — he kept him grinding.

And then came the moment that completely changed the result.

The Tactical Error

Between the third-last and the second-last, Harry Cobden (Isaac Des Obeaux) and Alex Chadwick (One Big Bang) both stopped riding.

They looked at each other.
They waited.
It became a staring contest, not a horse race.

While this was happening, Sean Bowen was pushing, driving, and closing relentlessly on Wade Out — the only jockey actually riding a finish.

By the last:

• Wade Out had gone from nowhere to a length behind

• One Big Bang was only just edging past Isaac Des Obeaux

• The front pair had thrown away all their advantage

From there, Wade Out surged past and won easily, a result that — on paper — looks like an improved, impressive performance.

But the reality?
He was gifted the race by tactical misjudgement up front.

Post-Race Thoughts:

• Wade Out deserves credit — he stayed, he rallied, he responded despite jumping poorly

• But this should never have unfolded the way it did.

• If the front two had simply kept racing instead of waiting for the other to blink, One Big Bang likely wins, as he did beat Isaac Des Obeaux once they actually engaged.

This was:

• a very good ride from Sean Bowen,

• and two very poor ones from Cobden and Chadwick.

Punters will look at the result and think Wade out was the best horse.

He wasn’t — he was the only one ridden properly when the race mattered.

? 2:55 The Shloer Chase – A Frantic, Tactical Test

This year’s Shloer Chase was run at a relentless pace from flagfall, almost an exercise in who could survive the early burn-up.

Matata tore away in front, doing what he does best — attacking every fence. Jonbon occasionally went up to eyeball him, but crucially, L’Eau du Sud was given a textbook ride by Harry Skelton. He never chased the pace, never got drawn into the madness, and instead stalked the front pair without committing.

Skelton’s patience won the race.

Around seven furlongs from home, he let L’Eau du Sud glide up to Matata, and the moment he did, the race changed.
The pace lifted again, and Jonbon was immediately on the back foot.

And that aligns with what we already know — Nicky Henderson has openly discussed stepping Jonbon up in trip, so a furious two-mile fight on rain-softened ground was always a risk.

The Ride on Jonbon

Nico de Boinville’s ride was… moderate.
It looked like he had absolutely no interest in trying to win the race once L’Eau du Sud went past.

He didn’t chase.
He didn’t ask.
He didn’t drive Jonbon the way a jockey like Sean Bowen unquestionably would have.

If Bowen had been on Jonbon, he’d have been pushing and roaring down the hill trying to close — and Jonbon probably would have closed. Instead, Nico seemed to accept defeat early, perhaps thinking:

“It’s soft ground, this isn’t the target — save it for the Grade 1s.”

That’s the difference in riding styles.
Bowen rides to win today.
Nico rides for later.

The Finish

L’Eau du Sud powered clear in impressive style , nothing was going to beat him the way he travelled.

Matata made a horrible mistake at the last, showed how hard he’d gone early, and only just clung on to third, which to be fair to his jockey, was a small victory on its own.

Jonbon stayed on but never looked like getting to the winner — more through lack of urgency from the saddle than lack of ability.

Post-Race Notes

• L’Eau du Sud: Impressive. Perfectly ridden. He travelled like a serious two-mile soft-ground chaser.

• Jonbon: Expect excuses. Nicky Henderson will talk about the ground, the pace, the time of year , everything except the ride.

• Matata: Ran his race in 90 seconds and paid the price late.

This was a brilliant ride from Harry Skelton and a tame one from Nico de Boinville.

The Matata Myth (Why the Racing TV Commentary Was Nonsense)

After the Shloer Chase, the Racing TV pundit served up another baffling piece of post-race analysis — claiming that Matata is “better over two-and-a-half miles.”

That statement isn’t just wrong.
It’s objectively, provably, wildly incorrect.

A quick bit of form reading , the bare minimum you’d expect on a racing broadcast , would show:

1️⃣ Matata has run over 2m4f once in his life.

What happened?

• Winner: Jonbon

• 2nd: Protektorat (3¼ lengths behind Jonbon)

• 3rd: Matata

• Beaten distance: 46 1/4 lengths

Forty-six.
That’s not “better over 2½ miles.”
That’s “please never run him over that trip again.”

2️⃣ All of Matata’s best form is at 2 miles.

Actual evidence:

• Won by 10 lengths at Windsor over 2 miles, thrashing Unexpected Party.

• Won by 26 lengths at Cheltenham over 2 miles, beating Third Time Lucki out of sight.

• Finished 2nd to Calico (who won the race again this year) over 2 miles.

• Multiple sharp, aggressive, front-running wins at the minimum trip.

The horse is a genuine, high-cruising-speed, two-mile chaser.
He is not a stayer.
He’s not built for it.
His form screams it.
His stride pattern screams it.
His entire racing profile screams it.

3️⃣ What happened today is simple: he went too fast.

This is what actually beat him:

• A blistering early pace.

• A high-class rival tracking him and applying pressure.

• A dreadful jump at the last when he was empty.

That’s it.
Not the trip.
Not stamina.
Just pure pace burnout , exactly what happens when a naturally fast two-miler overcooks it early on soft ground.

4️⃣ The problem: lazy punditry.

Instead of analysing:

• Sectionals

• Historical form

• Visual markers

• Conditions

• Tactical shape

…they opted for the easiest, most inaccurate line possible: “is better over further”

It’s the go-to phrase when a front-runner gets tired, even when the entire formbook says the opposite.

Conclusion

Matata is a very good two-mile chaser who ran his race in 90 seconds today and paid the price late.
Suggesting he’s “better over 2½ miles” is not just wrong — it shows a complete failure to even glance at his form.

3:30 Cheltenham – Grade 2 Albert Bartlett Trial (2m5f)

This was a fascinating renewal of the Albert Bartlett Trial — run over 2m5f instead of the Festival’s full 3 miles — and it produced exactly the sort of clues you want at this stage of the season.

Heads Up set the tone early, tearing off into a clear lead, about five lengths in front of Imperfectlyperfect, who in turn had pulled five clear of the pack led by Great Fleet and Destination Dubai.
Mark McDonagh gave Heads Up a breather midway down the back, but the damage had been done: he’d gone hard early, and although he rallied again at the top of the hill, the writing was on the wall.

Turning into the straight, several travelled well enough — but none travelled better than No Drama This End, who cruised down the hill under a motionless Harry Cobden. He breezed past Heads Up without being asked, and it was all very straightforward for Paul Nicholls’ improving hurdler. Heads Up, despite doing too much too soon, clung on bravely for second.

Two big takeaways going forward: Moneygarrow & Great Fleet

While the winner was impressive, the horses you want going forward are both Skelton runners:

1️⃣ Moneygarrow

Held up right out the back, made a couple of novicey errors, but was running on very strongly before Tristan Durrell realised he was getting too close and had to stop riding. He looked nailed-on to finish third.
He screams Coral Cup / Martin Pipe type.
A very workable profile for Festival handicaps.

2️⃣ Great Fleet

Forget this run entirely.
The form behind Conman John on his previous two starts is far superior to what he showed today.
He has been handed a mark of 126, and with three runs now under his belt, he’ll need one more to get into a Festival handicap.
That surely is the plan.

Heads Up – a winner waiting to happen

He’ll win next time under a slightly more patient ride. The early tearaway tactics cost him — but the raw ability is definitely there.

Verdict

A strong Nicholls winner, a brave front-runner in second…
…but the long-term handicappers to follow out of the race are Moneygarrow and Great Fleet, both of whom look primed for the big spring handicaps.

? 4:00 Handicap Hurdle – Tactical Madness, Bowen Brilliance

This was meant to be all about Alphonse Le Grand, a horse who could genuinely be very well handicapped. When does a horse ever run over hurdles off almost the same mark as on the Flat? It’s outrageous, and it’s the sort of thing you very rarely see unless connections know something.

That made the late withdrawal of Fortune de Mer for the Skeltons extremely interesting. Are they protecting a mark? They might very well be.

But any hopes of Alphonse Le Grand showing his ability evaporated almost immediately. He made a dreadful mistake at the first, a sloppy jump at the second, and you could see the alarm bells ringing straight away. He then carried his head a bit high, travelled keenly, and never really got rolling.

The pace didn’t help.
They absolutely dawdled.

Shades of Winter and The Expensive One were allowed to potter around on the front end, with Jack Hyde tucked in and Frontier Prince far too keen for his own good in mid-division. Alphonse Le Grand stayed in that same 7th/8th position… making mistakes, not being asked, and basically being ridden as if the race didn’t exist.

Race Turns Into a Sprint — And Riders Fail to React… Again

Down the hill, they finally quickened, and that sudden injection of pace completely wiped out anything wanting a stamina test. Jack Hyde and Frontier Prince kicked on; Alphonse Le Grande was caught flat-footed, exactly as you’d expect in a race shape that didn’t suit him.

At the last:

• Frontier Prince bungled it,

• Jack Hyde bungled it,

• and French Emperor, travelling smoothly in behind under James Bowen, cut through them like butter.

And that was the race.
Another winner for the Bowens after Wade Out earlier in the day for Sean Bowen. James Bowen judged this perfectly.

Jack Hyde finished second, Frontier Prince third, Aeroplane Blonde likely fourth, and Alphonse Le Grande back in 6th.

The Frustration: No Tactic Change, No Reaction, No Initiative

This is the recurring problem.

A race crawls for a mile and a half.
Everyone knows it’s going to turn into a sprint.
And what happens?

Nothing.
No jockey moves early.
No one adapts.
No one says, “My horse stays further — maybe I should drag something out of these.”

Alphonse Le Grande has Flat form over two miles and further.
The two-mile trip over hurdles was already borderline sharp for him.
A stop–start crawl–sprint gave him no chance.

Connections will surely step him up in trip.
And perhaps — just perhaps — next time the jockey might react to the pace of the race instead of following a preset plan to the letter.

That’s your inside look at how we break down the biggest races — and how we spot the horses others overlook.

Every week, our Premium and Pro members get reviews just like this, plus early race previews, value-odds updates, and daily ratings built to highlight the smart bets before the markets react.

If you found this useful, it’s worth imagining what having that insight before everyone else could do for your betting and strategy.

? Upgrade to Premium or Pro today — and start seeing the races differently.