John Smith’s Racing Stakes

Musaddas is having only his 2nd start of the season having won on his reappearance beating Jacob Black (1st, 2nd and 5th since and raised 7lb), Express Himself (1st since and raised 5lb) and Master The World (4th, 3rd and 1st since and raised 7lb) and although Musaddas has been raised 7lb himself this may not be enough to stop his progression as he should both be fitter for that run. Exceed and Excel progeny don’t often run well at York however that was the case at Newmarket as well and yet he won very nicely there. She has been priced up favourite but our ratings make her clear TOP RATED and she is the rightful favourite.

Birdman has been revitalised since moving to David O’Meara winning 4 times and placing on the other 2 runs. He has been raised from his early season mark of 70 up to 99 but that is still 9lb lower than his career high of 108 achieved when with David Simcock. The manner of his recent win at Haydock suggested that he hadn’t finished going back up the handicap and whilst that was off a 6lb lower mark he still might run a big race. Through a strict formline through Express Himself he may however struggle to beat Musaddas. Danehill Dancer progeny also have a very poor record here and unlike Musaddas who has won at courses that didn’t suit, Birdman has been winning at courses that have suited.

Wilde Inspiration has been slowly progressing up the ranks with just 3 efforts in his
last 11 has he failed to place although one of these was last time out when finishing last of 8 at Newcastle. If you could forgive him that run the he would be in with a chance on form however his sire Dandy Man progeny have not run well at York so far and this would be enough to put us off selecting him.

Dream Spirit has some smart form to his name as a 3 year old including finishing 3rd to Moohaarib (now rated 115) when giving him 2lb and made his return this season in a very competitive handicap at Ascot and was unable to get cover and came largely down the near side on his own and was never involved. Ascot for Invincible Spirit progeny rarely suits and York should do much better. William Haggas always has winners at York and Dream Spirit could be the sort to improve enormously for that run and may have more to come. He looks overpriced at his current price.

Basateen is making his reappearance this season and he could be very unexposed and well ahead of his mark. He improved for each run last season and his form look strong with his debut defeat to Lexington Times (now rated 105) and then 3rd to Toocoolforschool (rated 112) and Dutch Connection (rated 113) means his opening mark of 104 might be very lenient. He also gets the 3 year old allowance so is effectively running off a mark of 95. The step up in distance to 1m should suit as he was staying on well at York on his last start as a 3 year old. If he is fit then he will probably be the one to beat however fitness isn’t 100% guaranteed.

Arrowzone hadn’t really shown much before turning at Pontefract and surprising 2 runs ago when winning at 16/1 before running well again next time out at Lingfield and although only by ½ she was comfortably beaten by Donncha. She will need to significantly improve to win here and this looks unlikely with others in the field looking more likely to improve.

Musaddas has come out a clear TOP RATED and despite running at a course that isn’t guaranteed to suit, he handled Newmarket well enough and with that run under his belt he may well be good enough to win again. 13/2 currently available. Dream Spirit looks overpriced off the back of just one poor run at Ascot. If that run has brought him on enough then he should run well over this extra furlong. 16/1 available for this one.
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Johns Smith Silver Cup

Being a long distance race hopefully there shouldn’t be as many hard luck stories.

Urban Castle has been very consistent including 2 3rd places behind Watersmeet at Newmarket (ran well since) and 3rd behind Sound Reflection when staying on well after appearing well beaten with 3 furlongs to run. The step up in distance to 1 mile 6 furlong should suit as Street Cry progeny are 13% over 1m4f and 18% over 1m6f and although a 3lb rise isn’t ideal it may be overcome through the step up in distance. Although James Tate hasn’t had a winner at York in recent years both Luke Morris and Street Cry progeny do well at York and he could well spring a surprise.

Astronereus won at Newmarket when advised by the blog before finishing a good 3rd at Royal Ascot behind Arab Dawn and Ajman Bridge who both go in the main event. His form looks very strong as when winning at Newmarket he beat Quest For More, Arab Dawn and Watersmeet who have all won since and although 9lb higher he looks to still be improving and the step up to 1m6f could suit. The concern would be now switching to York from Newmarket and Ascot as both of those courses were going to suit whereas the course at York isn’t as likely to suit. He may be worth taking on as he has been priced up as 5/1 favourite.

Famous Kid was 6th at Royal Ascot behind Astronereus but was probably a shade unlucky as was hampered by Astronereus coming inside the final couple of furlongs before running on well again and may well have gone much closer had he got a clear run. The step up in distance, a clear run and running at York which should suit and 2lb better off with Astronereus should be enough to turn the tables on him and possibly should be the clear favourite, James McDonald has made a good return to riding in the UK and a big handicap win is surely just round the corner.

Great Hall was fancied by some to win last week at Haydock and although the race may not have been run to suit the two in front for most of the way stayed 1st and 2nd at the end. He probably needs to improve to get involved here and this could be a step to far too quickly after disappointing.

Dashing Star was backed off the boards at Royal Ascot when only finishing 9th in the race that Astronereus and Famous Kid were in front. He was tried to be kept wide that day before moving in just before the bend and this tactic didn’t appear to work. The Ascot course however wasn’t likely to suit and whilst York isn’t great too, it is more likely to suit than Ascot and connections were obviously keen last time so similar support may arrive.

Urban Castle is worth a bet at decent odds at 12/1 with Famous Kid looking the one to beat at 13/2. Dashing Star could well be another gamble and 12/1 could be much bigger than what he goes off.
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Bunbury Cup

Unforgiving Minute failed to make an impact on the turf after winning on debut as a 3 year old at Kempton. After 2 poor runs on the turf he reverted back to the AW and won 3 times in very good style. If he can convert this form back to the turf then he would have a very big chance and this is the course to try at as Cape Cross progeny have a very good record here. He also has to prove his fitness but it’s unlikely he has been left short for a big race like this. The booking of James Doyle is very eyecatching and he looks a decent price.

Firmdecisions squeezes into this race off a mark of 96 after winning his last 2 races both of which were over CD and the form has worked out well particularly with Saigon City who was only 5th since finishing 2nd to the progressive Lightning Spear at Salisbury. Dean Ivory wouldn’t have pitched this one in this race without feeling he had a very big chance and Dean Ivory’s record at Newmarket is very good. Captain Rio progeny generally run well here and the advantage of being of a CD winner can only be a positive. He should run a big race and is another that looks to be a decent price.

Jallota was a very smart 2 year old finishing behind the likes of Astaire, Toofi, War Command for Mick Channon before a brief stint at Meydan for Mike De Kock before returning to the UK for Charlie Hills. After some disappointing results he dropped down to a mark of 97 and showed he was coming back to himself when 2nd to the well handicapped Loving Spirit. He showed this was no fluke when winning next time out at York in a competitive handicap beating One Word More , Alfred Hutchinson and others who re-oppose. He’s been raised 4lb for that win but Jim Crowley rides this track well and he is likely to run another big race.

Ayaar was a good winner of a handicap at Newbury beating some progressive horses including Spark Plug, Big Baz and Loving Spirit before running reasonably well at Royal Ascot behind GM Hopkins when possibly getting there a bit soon. That said he was unable to get past Bronze Angel who was even more prominent than Ayaar and this course isn’t likely to suit as much as Ascot did. He doesn’t appeal at the prices.

At the prices it may be worth taking the top 3 in Unforgiving Minute @ 20/1, Firmdecisions @ 14/1 and Jallota @ 14/1.