Royal Ascot Day 5
The final day of Royal Ascot and it’s been great for the ratings!

Chesham Stakes

Tonkinese finished 3rd on debut when not really fancied before stepping up on this really nicely next time out to win at Leopardstown on faster ground which he is likely to run on again. The step up in distance also appeared to suit. When 3rd he chased home Air Force Blue (2nd at Royal Ascot) and Rockaway Valley (easy winner since) and the form looks very strong. Authorized progeny have a good record at Ascot and James Doyle should give this Godolphin owned Colt a good ride.

Ballydoyle is expected to be a decent horse given his name however he was somewhat disappointing on debut when sent off odds on however a lot of Aiden O’Brien horses have been improving for their runs at Royal Ascot and with Ryan Moore riding he can’t be ignored especially as despite only finishing 4th on his debut he showed lots of signs of greenness and was nudged out hands and heels and this would have taught him a lot.

Dessertoflife was only 4th on debut behind Raaqy and other than Dessertoflife winning on her next start, the form hasn’t really worked out that well yet. She improved for that run however when winning just days ago at Doncaster and is quickly turned out for this race. She will probably need to improve again to win but her experience might be very useful.

Force has only had the one run to date and that was when finishing 3rd at Goodwood in a race that the form had a strong feel to and ties in with runners such as Riflescope who was 4th in the Group 2 Norfolk Stakes at Royal Ascot. With this run under Force’s belt he should be much more clued up as he was slowly away and travelled well before the front 2 got first run. Any improvement and he should play a big part in this race. Raven’s Pass progeny have done very well at Ascot in it’s first few seasons.

Ballydoyle looks like being a short price favourite and therefore represents no value. Tonkinese has shown the best form to date and the 10/3 looks a reasonable win bet. Force could well improve to get involved in this race and at 12/1 looks a nice price.
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Wolferton Handicap

Mahsoob surprisingly stays in Handicap company after winning his last 2 in the style of a Group horse in a handicap. He’s needed every yard of the 1m2f on both his last starts but the long straight should suit his running style. John Gosden has won this twice in the last 4 years and both were very progressive handicappers who went on to run and Gatewood has won a few Group races in Australia. With the likes of Fire Fightning and Sennockian Star he should get a fast pace to run at and is clearly the one to beat.

Ayrad has contested some high class races in career so far including the Qipco Champion Stakes last season over CD and was duly outpointed. After finishing last in a 5 runner Group 3 behind some smart horses he was dropped to Listed level and was a good winner back at this grade. His mark is unchanged at 105 and with Frankie in the plate he should go well. Dalakhani progeny don’t have a good record here however and this would be a concern.

Provenance has run 3 good races in Fillies listed events on her last 3 runs including when dropped back to 1m on her reappearance. Had that race been over 1m2f then she may well have won as she was closing all the way to the line and was beaten less than a length in 3rd. Ryan Moore gets the ride as Coolmore don’t have a representative and this Filly should go very close.

First Flight runs at his 2nd Royal Ascot having been sent off 14/1 for the Brittania last year where he could only manage 9th. That was over 1 mile and he was still running on at the death and this step up in distance should suit as it showed when he finished a close 3rd on his reappearance when just run down by Mahsoob. First Flight is 5lb better off with Mahsoob for that run and can’t be discounted.

Dick Doughtywylie was last seen finishing 7th in this race and has obviously been saved to run in this race again. Travelling wide that day he was also a bit keen and pulled his way to the front. He kicked on turning into the straight and was still bang there with a furlong or so to go before his early exertions took their toll and he faded back into 7th. He is 3lb lower today and this could be enough to give him a big chance of making the frame this time.

Collaboration has been a revelation since being gelded winning all 3 starts at Windsor, Epsom and Chester and has been raised from 75 to 102. He won well last time out at Chester off a mark of 95 and the 7lb rise is about right. He could still have more to come however being a Halling gelding would be a major concern as they are 0/16 in recent years at Ascot.

Mahsoob is the one to beat and everything looks right for him however he is only 9/4. Looking at 2 or 3 each way alternatives may be the way to go. Provenance looks to have a big chance on the back of her reappearance and can be backed at 10/1. First Flight could reverse the form with Mahsoob with his 5lb pull and looks more appealing at 10/1 and Dick Doughtywylie looks very overpriced at 25/1 as he should be fit for this race.
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Hardwicke Stakes

Telescope was a very easy winner of this race last year when beating Hillstar by 7 lengths and he should confirm the placings with Hillstar. Sir Michael Stoute is looking to win this for the 6th time in 10 years. After a surprising defeat on his reappearance when he was probably in front too soon he made amends at Newbury in a Listed race and the step back up to Group 2 company is the one to beat.

Postponed has improved significantly since being beaten at Ascot last year in the Tercentenary Stakes behind Cannock Chase. 2 subsequent wins were followed by 2 good performances this year when beaten by
Western Hymn at Sandown when trying to make all and then by Al Kazeem and Fascinating Rock in a Group 1 at Curragh. Again he tried to make all and whilst he has clearly improved by leading he is always going to be there to be shot at. He is sure to run well but it may come down to the jockeys instead of the horses.

Snow Sky has a bit to find with a few of these including Eagle Top who beat him last year at Royal Ascot in the King Edward VII Stakes and Postponed who beat him at York last season. He made a very pleasing reappearance when winning the Yorkshire Cup at York but that was over 1m6f and he took all of this distance to get on top. He was also in receipt of weight to many of his rivals which he won’t get here. Ryan Moore has also chosen to ride Telescope of the 2 Sir Michael Stoute runners.

Eagle Top was a surprise winner at Royal Ascot last year having been sent off 12/1 for the King Edward VII Stakes. After winning at Royal Ascot he was sent for a Group 1 back at Ascot and finished 4th of 8 when Telescope was 2nd. Eagle Top is 11lb better off with Telescope for being beaten by about 2 lengths. His comeback run at Sandown over 1m2f can only be described as disappointing however John Gosden made it clear that day that Frankie was going to look after him and once his chance was gone he was nursed home and with this run under his belt he should run a much better race.

Telescope is the one to beat and with Ryan Moore in the saddle he is sure to be given a good ride. Despite Eagle Top winning at Royal Ascot his sire progeny stats at Ascot are not great and it’s probably a safer bet to take the favourite and leave it at that. A win bet on Telescope @ 5/4.
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Diamond Jubilee Stakes

Mustajeeb won the Jersey Stakes last year over 7f and is back this year for a 6f race. After finishing 2nd in a Group 2 over 1m he was then disappointing in France and on his reappearance he was dropped back to 6f. Sitting in mid-division he was ridden along with a furlong to go but responded really well and his stamina came to the fore as he comfortably beat his rivals. In this big field there is likely to be plenty of pace and this is only one of a handful of runners from Dermot Weld sent to Royal Ascot and he should go close.

Due Dilligence is very lightly raced having been initially trained in USA. After a 3rd and 2 wins for Aiden O’Brien he was pitched in at the deep end in this race last year but after racing prominent on the near side he was soon behind as the far side group was clearly in front. After being ridden along he responded really well and was closing all the way to line despite being hampered. If he is drawn more towards the pace this time he may go even closer. On his reappearance he was stepped up in distance, held up and the tongue tie was removed and he finished a disappointing 7th, however with the tongue tie re-fitted and the drop back to 6f he should go well.

Moviesta is now trained by Eddie Lynam who is best known for his exploits with Sole Power and Slade Power who won this race last year. Former winner of a Group 2 at Goodwood, he also finished a close 3rd in that race the following season as well as a 4th in a Nunthorpe so obviously possesses plenty of ability however he had rather inconsistent form with Bryan Smart. Now with Eddie Lynam he should have been trained with this race in mind and he might surprise a few.

Tropics was a good winner at Windsor recently having been dropped down to Listed level but has also posted some very good efforts in Group races including a 2nd in a July Cup behind Slade Power. With the fast pace likely to suit he should run a decent race and if held up then he is likely to be finishing late and fast.

Brazen Beau comes over from Australia where is a Dual group 1 winner, he is very impressive over there and generally the Australian sprinters have good records in this race however due to the slight lack of knowledge about this horse we can’t be saying too much about him.

Pearl Secret only ran 4 days ago at Royal Ascot over 5f when making eyecatching progress from the back of the field and this step up to 6f should really suit. When racing over 5f it was those prominent that fared best so for this one to finish as close as he did was probably a very good effort. If his earlier effort this week hasn’t taken too much out of him he may well go close again.

Mustajeeb will have come on for his reappearance this season and with the race likely to be set up for him he should be finishing really well. A small bet at 5/1 looks a decent bet. Due Dilligence and Pearl Secret are both likely to be suited to the switch to 6f and both can make their presence @ 9/1 and 16/1 respectively.
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Wokingham Stakes

Interception made a very pleasing comeback run at Haydock when running a Fillies and Mares Listed event. Held up she travelled really well and had to wait for a gap to appear, when it did the winner had already got first run and despite closing down on her she was unable to get there in time. This was a perfect prep run for this race and with fitness now assured she is likely to go well. David Lanigan as previously mentioned doesn’t send many here so this one must have a chance and being a Raven’s Pass mare she should handle the course as she showed when finishing 3rd here on her last start last season.

Huntsmans Close has continually improved over the last 2 seasons and made a very good comeback when a short head 2nd to Eastern Impact (holds an entry in the July Cup). The form of that hasn’t worked out that well however as of yet and the negative sire stats 0/21 in recent seasons would be a worry.

Polybius is one the least experienced in the field and yet has shown some smart form including when 3rd at Lingfield in a fast track qualifier. He was disappointing on his return to the turf when well beaten but this run would have brought him on significantly. He will need to improve again to get involved here and doesn’t look like the first string from David Lanigan with George Baker opting to ride Interception.

Basil Berry arrives to this race in great form having won his last 2 races including over CD last time out when finishing well to get up on the line. The is a step up in class and with a 9lb rise to contend with he may find one or two of these better handicapped.

Tatlisu looks very interesting for Middleham Park racing with him just squeezing in at the bottom of the handicap. After a good win at Doncaster he ran well again to finish 3rd at Ripon before Ryan Moore rode him again at York. He ran on that day and wasn’t stopping at the line and may have just got caught out at the crucial time. Ryan Moore has form figures of 1334 on this horse and Richard Fahey had the winner last year in Baccarat who had previously finished 2nd in the same race as Tatlisu was 4th.

Zarwaan is one towards the bottom of the ratings that we feel is still due to run a big race. Zarwaan finished 5th in a handicap last year at Royal Ascot off a mark of 101 and is just 1lb higher today on 102 despite running reasonable races in the Lincoln and Victoria Cup. He was well backed in the Victoria Cup and went off just 9/1 and raced prominently. All of those that beat him were held up and he probably did too much early on. He is dropped back to 6f and should try and use his stamina he has built up and race prominently and may not be coming to his rivals this time.

Interception should strip fitter for her reappearance run and looks a good bet at 25/1. Tatlisu has the assistance of Ryan Moore and is likely to go off much shorter than his 12/1 current odds and Zarwaan is another who we feel is overpriced at 16/1.
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Queen Alexandra Stakes

The Final Race of Royal Ascot is also the longest with this one run over 2m5f and NH horses have a good record in this race.

Wicklow Brave was sent off favourite for the Imperial Cup at Sandown but planted himself before bouncing back to win the County Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival in really impressive fashion. The runner up that day who was well beaten has since come out won a very competitive handicap at Punchestown on his next start (Clondaw Warrior was 3rd). Wicklow Brave was then switched to the flat sphere and contested a 2m maiden race at Gowran Park where despite giving away weight he was still far too good for his rivals and looked a natural on the flat. He was then dropped in distance to 1m6f at Listowel where once again he was far too classy for his rivals and arrives to this race with a huge amount of potential and could even be a Gold Cup horse of the future. He needs to prove he gets the distance but with Ryan Moore and Willie Mullins teaming up again in a long distance you would think he will go very very close.

Marzocco is a surprise entrant in this conditions race as has been very highly tried in the past and run well including a 5th in a St Leger and a 3rd in the Queens Vase back in 2014. He looks to have a bit of class about him and with John Gosden and William Buick teaming up with this Godolphin he is sure to go close and looks the big danger to Wicklow Brave.

Teak has been campaigned in these long distance races on the flat and was 7th last year in the Cesarewitch at Newmarket. He has won over this distance at Goodwood so the distance shouldn’t be a problem for this horse and probably looks a safe bet compared to his rivals who are not guaranteed to stay this far.

Rawaki has to give away weight to all his rivals having won a conditions race at Salisbury before. This is significant step up in distance for Andrew Baldings horse having been campaigned around the 1m4f for most of his career. If he stays then this could bring out the improvement needed to get involved.

Wicklow Brave is short at 5/4 but a small win bet on is deserved as he could be Group class running in a conditions race. Teak at 20/1 looks a decent price for a horse that is guaranteed to stay.
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