Royal Ascot Day 4

Day 4 features the newly created Commonwealth Cup and looks to be one of the races of the whole meeting.

Albany Stakes

Laxfield Road is our TOP RATED runner and her win on debut was a good one when showing blistering speed over 4f in the USA. She steps up in distance here but the American horses have looked fantastic this week and have so much early speed this could be very vital in a race of 2 year olds. Frankie rides this one and she should go well. Quality Road has only had one runner here and it won which is encouraging.

Azhar was only moderate on debut but stepped up nicely on her 2nd run at Kempton on the all weather when stepped up to 6f and whilst this improvement was good she will certainly need to improve again to get involved here against 2 or 3 of the unbeaten sorts.

Illuminate beat the highly regarded Great Page on debut with Sixties Sue back in 3rd. They have both won since including Great Page in a Listed race at Navan in very impressive fashion. Illuminate was outpaced early over 5f but stayed on really well to win convincingly and this step up 6f should really suit. She should run a really big race and we can understand why she is the short priced favourite.

Back at the Ranch is Wesley Ward’s other run in the race and this is ridden by stable jockey Joel Rosario. Back at the Ranch was only 2nd on debut over 4f before she improved for the step up to 5f. Stepping up further to 6f should suit and she should run well. Both Wesley’s horses have been blinkered for the first time which worked with Acapulco yesterday.

Ashadihan is one lower down the ratings that takes the eye. A winner on debut over 6f at Haydock she is one that has already proven herself at this distance at the first time of asking. She was held up that day and travelled into the race really well before kicking clear inside the final furlong and won in very impressive fashion. She is a Kyllachy Filly and should handle the course and could be a winner for less well known connections.

With Laxfield Road TOP RATED she has to be a selection at 8/1 and Ashadihan would be much shorter if with one of the leading trainers. A small e/w bet at 11/1 looks a good bet.
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King Edward VII Stakes

Stravagante stepped up significantly last time out at Epsom when winning very impressively and stepping up to a Group 2 is just deserved. He was running all the way to the line at Epsom and the step up in distance shouldn’t be a problem. Frankie Dettori takes the ride as Ryan Moore has been retained by the Coolmore team with Ol Man River.

Magic Dancer finished 2nd on his last start behind Kilimanjaro in the Lingfield Derby trial however how strong this form is in in debate. Kilimanjaro could only finish 6th a full 13 lengths behind Golden Horn which on a strict form line with Golden Horn he has a lot to turn around with Festive Fare. The trainer, jockey and sire stats don’t give us that much confidence on this one.

Festive Fare won his first 2 runs before finishing 4th in a hot Listed event at Newmarket behind Golden Horn who has since gone and won the Dante and the Derby and this form has to be marked up. He was very keen that day and also hung under pressure late on and with a straighter run he may well have finished 2nd and would be thought of in much higher regard. Teofilo don’t have a great record here however and this would be a concern.

Mr Singh runs for connections who won this race last year with Eagle Top. Eagle Top had been beaten on his previous start when finishing only 4th in a handicap. Mr Singh made his reappearance this year in the same race as Eagle Top won and he duly followed suit and could well improve for his recent defeat and go close in a race that looks a bit on the weak side.

Ol Man River is the dark horse in the race having been regarded as a Derby horse at the beginning of the season having won the Juddmonte Beresford Stakes which had been won by some very smart types in the past. He ran an absolute shocker in the 2000 Guineas when connections felt he was bit overawed before a similar poor performance in the Dante however he came there travelling well before failing to pick up and the step up in distance may suit.

A very tricky race and there doesn’t seem to be much value in anything at the head of the market. With the route already having worked with surprise winner Eagle Top it may be worthwhile a small e/w bet on Mr Singh @ 10/1.
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Commonwealth Cup

This could well be the race of the week with any number of 6 or 7 that could win here.

Anthem Alexander won the Queen Mary last year when just beating Tiggy Wiggy over 5f when travelling really well and just hanging on late on. Stepped up to 6f on her next 2 starts she was beaten on both occasions by Tiggy Wiggy and this could be a similar story however she is sure to played later today. She made a very impressive reappearance and looks cherry ripe to win again at Royal Ascot. Starspangledbanner progeny have a great record here and she should go very close.

Limato won his first 5 starts without coming off the bridle before running below par last time out to only finish 2nd. The slower ground than hoped was surely a reason for the failure to pick up as Limato still came there travelling really well. With lightning fast ground expected he should go very close and it wouldn’t be a surprise if this gelding can bounce back to winning ways.

Tendu has finished 2nd on his last 2 runs but these were to Limato and Profitable and on both occasions she has been finishing really well. She is sure to run a decent race now back up to 6f but there may be 2 or 3 superstars in this race and even with the Fillies allowance she may not be quite good enough.

Adaay could only finish 3rd on his reappearance when behind Limato and Tendu before reversing the placings with Limato on good ground at Haydock. The softer ground probably suited Adaay and this lightning fast ground may just catch him out again as it did on his reappearance. He shouldn’t be too far away though and there could be 5 or 6 split by a few necks.

Hootenaany was a super impressive winner of the Windsor Castle last season at Ascot when showing blistering pace. She proved this was no fluke when stepping up to 1 mile at the Breeders Cup to win the Juvenile Turf. She has blistering pace and is another that could be bang there at the finish. Ryan Moore takes the ride and so should go close.

Tiggy Wiggy was 2nd at Royal Ascot last year behind Anthem Alexander when just failing to reel in Anthem Alexander. She stepped up to 6f on her next 2 starts and won both really impressively beating Anthem Alexander on both starts. She then stepped up to 7f on her reappearance and 1m for the 1000 Guineas where she ran a fantastic race and only faded back to 3rd late on. The drop back in distance is sure to suit and she should be bang there.

We could genuinely pick any of Anthem Alexander, Limato, Hootenaany or Tiggy Wiggy to win this. Anthem Alexander @ 8/1 travelled so well last year that if she’s waited with this year a bit longer then she should go well. That is our only bet of the race and we will watch the race in admiration.
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Coronation Stakes

Found looks to get back to winning ways having been chinned on the line in an upset on her return when reportedly having had a setback just before. She then came back in the Irish Guineas and ran a cracker to finish 2nd to Pleascach when the winner probably got the run of the race and the 2 pacemakers surely helped. Found was quite unlucky that day as well as she was boxed in for fair way before finishing really well. Ryan Moore will be riding and she get a very good ride and go very close.

Ervedya won the French 1000 Guineas in impressive fashion and this looks the ideal race. She has taken on Found before and was only 2nd beaten by 2 ½ lengths albeit she was eased once Found had gone past. She will need to have strengthened up over the winter to reverse the placings with but this isn’t out of the question. Christophe has yet to have a winner year in recent years and will need to get the timing of his challenge spot on otherwise she is likely to be run down by Found again.

Sperry didn’t show that much last season despite winning on her last start before winning on her reappearance when winning nicely enough. She was stepped up to Listed class next time out and continued her improvement when winning again beating Yasmeen in the process. She is sure to be a decent Filly in time but might be found wanting here.

Lucida runs for the Bolger/Manning partnership who had a disappointing run from Round Two earlier this week. Lucida has always been highly regarded and has beaten Found as a 2 year old in the Moyglare. Her only run this season was a very good 2nd to Legatissimo at Newmarket in the 1000 Guineas as she pulled clear of the rest. The only concern would be the record of trainer and jockey at Ascot.

This looks to be between Found and Lucida and with the negative stats for Kevin Manning and Jim Bolger it is probably worth retaining faith with in form Ryan Moore and Aiden O’Brien with Found. Found can be backed at 15/8.
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Duke of Edinburgh Stakes

Watersmeet threw away his chance of racking up a 4 time at Newmarket two runs ago when hanging badly left handed inside the final furlong and was beaten far. He came back to Newmarket and this time ran straight and true and compensation awaited and he won by 1 ¾ lengths from Dashing Star who had previously finished 5th in this race last year. He’s been raised 6lb for that win however he is clearly still improving and may be good enough to win again under a strong front running ride from Joe Fanning.

Warrior of Light has had 2 runs this season with 2 placed efforts to date including when a very close 2nd to Mutatis Mutandis who has since come out and won again off a 5lb higher mark. Warrior of Light has been raised 2lb for his 2nd and so could be ahead of his mark based on the the new mark of the winner. David Lanigan doesn’t send many runners to Royal Ascot and has a good record when he does and the fitting of first time cheekpieces may eek out that little bit of improvement to win this race.

Ajman Bridge won his first 2 starts of his career before being a well backed loser on his subsequent 9 races including when 3rd at York just over a month ago. It paid to be prominent last time out at York and Ajman Bridge was probably a bit too far back as the winner and runner up were 1st and 2nd the whole way. Ajman Bridge travelled into the race well before only picking up late on and a truer run 1m4f race might suit. Dubawi progeny generally run well at Ascot and we think this Gelding can follow suit.

Dashing Star who finished 5th in this race last year has run some really good consistent races since then including when 2nd on his last start behind Watersmeet. Ryan Moore takes over from Tim Clark and he should get a very good ride and should be bang there and is 1lb lower than when 5th last year.

Igider is really unexposed in this race and is still a colt and was a comfortable winner last time out and has only been raised 9lb for that race. He is likely to sit relatively prominent and may well be close enough to make his challenge at the right time. Graham Lee hasn’t ridden this track that well yet but is only now getting some very good rides.

With lots of places at the bookmakers (5 in places), it is probably worth having 3 or 4 in this race. Watersmeet @ 12/1, Warrior of Light @ 9/1, Ajman Bridge @ 8/1 and Dashing Star @ 16/1 are our 4 against the field.
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Queens Vase

Aloft is TOP RATED and rightly so after finishing 2nd in the Racing Post Trophy as a 2 year old on his 3rd start. The marked step up in distance from 1m to 2m is not unusual from Aiden O’Brien who did something similar last year with Century who was very unlucky in this race. Out of Galileo he is sure to stay this far and is surely the one to beat especially with Aiden O’Brien and Ryan Moore going really well.

Future Empire looked a horse with real potential after finishing 2nd in the Derby Trial at Epsom before running below par on soft ground at Chester. The return to quicker ground should suit and he’s already been Gelded. Out of New Approach he both should stay and run well at the course and should run a good race. If you forgive him his last run then he would be much shorter in the market.

Antiquarium has won his last 3 runs after being beaten on debut and he was a very impressive winner last time out when stepped up to 1m4f. He made all that day and the extra distance should suit. Another out of New Approach he should continue improving and should be there or thereabouts.

Yarrow was beaten by some smart sorts including Star of Seville as a 2 year old and this season by Fabricate who has since won again and is due to reoppose and Yarrow is 4lb better off. Out of Sea The Stars he should go well over this 2 mile trip and Pat Smullen who rides these long distance really well has been booked to ride with Ryan Moore claimed by Coolmore again. He is likely to run a big race and could be one who has been somewhat forgotten in this race.

As a potential shock winner would be Tommy Docc, this horse has won this season over 5f, 1m and 1m4f in 3 of his last 4 races and this distance might be right up his street. At the prices he has to be backed for small stakes.

Aloft is a short price at 15/8 but is worth a bet at that. Yarrow looks very unexposed and is a decent price at 14/1 and Tommy Docc @ 66/1 deserves a few pennies each way.
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