Royal Ascot Day 1

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Queen Anne Stakes

The first race of the week and a Group 1 to start and what a race it looks like being.

Solow has come out TOP RATED and this is off the back of 5 consecutive wins since being dropped back in distance. After winning a Group 3 in really impressive fashion at Deauville he stepped up to Group 2 class at Longchamp when beating Veda by half a length. A trip to Meydan for the Dubai Turf proved fruitful when a very easy winner beating The Grey Gatsby by over 4 lengths and this form looks strong. A recent win in the Prix D’Ispahan was very impressive when beating Gailo Chop who had come into the race off the back of an easy win in a Group 2. The drop back in distance shouldn’t be a problem and he looks the one to beat.

Night of Thunder was a good winner of the Lockinge recently and appears to be the home team main protagonist. The form of the Lockinge has worked out really well with Arod (3rd), Cable Bay (5th) and Top Notch Tonto (10th) all winning since. Night of Thunder has run twice at Ascot and finished 2nd on both occasions to Kingman and Charm Spirit who are proven top class Group 1 performers. Both Night of Thunder and Solow are likely to be settled in mid-division and this race may come down to who has the best turn of foot and handles the course the best. With Night of Thunder being out of Dubawi he should handle this course well and probably looks the value in the race currently at 5/1 e/w.

Able Friend is coming over from Hong Kong after winning a sequence of Group 1 races over there. It’s not totally clear how strong this form is although the speeds of these races are generally slower than those in the Britain and it may be that Able Friend is taken out of his comfort zone by a strong pace. If he can keep up initially then he is likely to sit just behind Solow and Night of Thunder and will be running them down all the way to the line.

Toormore is one who may be playing for place money having already been beaten 4 times in his career by Night of Thunder but if any of the big guns fail then Toormore is likely to capitalise. He appeared to improve at the back of end of last season and finished 3rd behind Charm Spirit and Night of Thunder at Ascot before again finishing just behind Night of Thunder at Newbury in the Lockinge. With both now likely to be fit and the course appearing to suit Night of Thunder more the placings should be maintained.

Solow looks the one to beat @ 13/8 and with a dead 8 in the race currently the 5/1 about Night of Thunder almost looks like an e/w to nothing.
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Coventry Stakes

This race has been won by some really smart horses in the past including Henrythenavigator, Canford Cliffs, Dawn Approach, War Command and last year by The Wow Signal.

Buratino has come out TOP RATED and has recently been purchased by Godolphin and so William Buick gets the ride. With 5 runs under his belt already he is the most experienced horse in the race and any good performance would be promising for King of Rooks and Log Out Island who have both beaten Buratino so far in his career. One of these defeats came at Ascot and his hold up style may not work quite as well here as other tracks. He does look a smart horse but may find one or two of the unexposed horses too good for him.

Air Force Blue looks really well bred and made a winning debut at Curragh when beating Rockaway Valley and Tonkinese who have both won on their subsequent starts in good style. Travelling really well he quickened up smartly to go a few lengths clear before getting tired late on and only just hanging on. The subsequent form boosts probably indicate this was a really good effort on debut and with more likely to come with this run under his belt and this colt could give Ryan Moore and Aiden O’Brien their first Royal Ascot winner with Ryan as the official number one jockey for Coolmore. Being out of War Front he is sure to handle the track and can follow in the footsteps of fellow War Front colt War Command to win this race.

Beaverbrook took a while to get a win to his name only winning on his 4th start but he has been improving steadily. After an eyecatching 4th at Windsor when staying on once the penny had dropped he finished 2nd to Steady Pace before another 2nd to Birchwood. Birchwood has since been purchased by Godolphin and it looks like based on the jockey booking of James Doyle that Beaverbrook may also be in the Godolphin silks by the end of the year. James Doyle rides Ascot well and he may well be overpriced at 33/1.

Round Two is another Godolphin entry in this race and his 2 victories have been very impressive and the form has been franked. Winning on debut at Naas he beat Argentero who had previously won and has since won again in a Listed event. Round Two was then stepped up to Listed level himself and again won well beating Washington DC of Aiden O’Brien who should know where he stands with Air Force Blue against this one. Whilst the form looks strong the statistics for Trainer, Jockey and Sire here would be a worry and the 9/4 looks too short on this account.

Eltezam runs for Richard Hannon and the rejuvenated Frankie Dettori. After finishing 3rd on debut behind Birchwood and Buratino he stepped up on this to win at Haydock albeit in a race where anything less than a win would have been very disappointing. He looks to be improving for each run although whether he is a Coventry winner at this stage in his career we are not so sure.

Round Two has great form but the stats are a worry and looks too short at 9/4. Buratino has been purchased by Godolphin and they will be wanting to recoup some of this money and at 9/1 he looks a reasonable e/w bet along with Air Force Blue who’s debut win has been really well franked. Air Force Blue is available @ 8/1.
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King’s Stands Stakes

The King Stand’s Stakes sees Sole Power looking to win this race for the 3rd consecutive time and looking at the race he could well do this.

Muthmir has come out TOP RATED after a fine win at Chantilly when quickening up really well to beat the talented Catcall and Spirit Quartz (who reopposes). A highly progressive handicapper last year he made a reasonable reappearance this year when 5th (3/4 length behind the winner) in a Group 2 at York. The drop back in distance really suited at Chantilly and staying over 5f should allow him to run a good race again. This fast improving horse needs to step up now in Group 1 company however at just 5 he certainly has the potential to do this.

Meccas Angel is another who is improving at a rate of knots and after winning a Listed then went on to finish 5th at Maisons-Lafitte. Returning to Doncaster she went and easily won a Listed event beating Reckless Abandon before comfortably winning a Group 2 at Newbury. A further win later on in the season at Longchamp when beating the likes of Hot Streak, Catcall, Spirit Quartz and Pearl Secret means she is deserved of her place in this race and if she has any more improvement in her this season then she should run a very big race.

Sole Power is only RTR 3 however some of this would have been down to some poor efforts when stepped up to 6f. Over 5 furlongs however he has won 2 Nunthorpes, 2 Kings Stand Stakes and an Al Quoz Sprint at Meydan and is surely the one to beat back at Ascot. This smooth travelling horse has to be played late but Richard Hughes appears to have mastered this aboard Sole Power and with their likely to be plenty of pace in this race he is sure to be finishing late and fast.

G Force is last years’ Betfred Sprint Cup winner and it’s interesting to see Middleham Park racing keep hold of this one instead of selling to the highest bidder. He is another that is rapidly improving and although his last but one effort was poor the soft ground wouldn’t have suited that day. He made a reasonable reappearance when 8th to Pearl Secret as he was just making his effort and moving stylishly into the race when stumbling and losing his chance and wasn’t given a hard race after that. He’s sure to appreciate the fast run race however his sire stats of 0/18 would be a big concern.

Wind Fire has come out higher rated than both Jack Dexter and Pearl Secret who both beat him last time however Wind Fire got no run that day and was finishing really well after eventually being switched. With a clear run he may well have won that day and with her Fillies allowance once again coming into play she may well be able to reverse the placings from this race and put herself in with a big chance in this race. His only other previous appearance over course and distance was when finishing 3rd to No Nay Never in the Norfolk stakes who then went on to win the Prix Morny and finish 2nd in a Breeders Cup. This race could play into his hands and he may be somewhat of a forgotten horse.

Meccas Angel gets the Filly allowance and has been really improving and already proven herself at a decent level where as Muthmir hasn’t quite reached these heights yet. If either is going to improve again it should be the 4 year old and so Meccas Angel looks a decent bet at 7/1. Sole Power is surely the one to beat and a saver at 4/1 looks a good way to place this with a speculative bet on Wind Fire e/w @ 25/1.
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St James Palace Stakes

Gleneagles is likely to start a short priced favourite for this and staying over 1m should really suit.

Gleneagles was beaten on debut as a 2 year old but since then has finished first past the post on his next 7 runs (disqualified and placed 3rd at Longchamp). These victories include winning both the English and Irish 2000 Guineas despite not getting a clear run in the latter. Aiden O’Brien stated after the race that he won despite the ground and a faster surface tomorrow is likely to suit. Out of Galileo he should be able to handle the course and Ryan Moore just needs to time his challenge.

Consort won a decent maiden on debut before initially being entered for the Dante at York. After missing that race he raced at Sandown in a Listed event and despite being pushed along halfway down the straight he always looked like picking up if he got a clear run, when the gaps eventually opened he quickened up nicely and won going away and stepping up to Group company is certainly warranted. He will need to improve again though to beat either of Gleneagles or Make Believe.

Make Believe could be the one to shake up Gleneagles in this race and his win in the French 2000 Guineas was very impressive and the form has been franked with runner up New Bay winning the French Derby. Make Believe was able to dominate in the French 2000 Guineas and with only 6 runners in the race even if you are last then you shouldn’t be that far behind Make Believe. He may not get away with a free lead today and looks vulnerable to Gleneagles.

Gleneagles looks the one to beat and despite the price is probably worth a bet @ 8/11
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Ascot Stakes

The Ascot stakes is run over the same distance as the Ascot Gold Cup and interestingly the last 5 winners had all been hurdling.

TOP RATED Clondaw Warrior is also a dual purpose horse who’s last run on the flat was a winning one at Leopardstown when beating Spacious Sky. The step up in distance over hurdles would probably suit so the step up on the flat could also suit. His latest win on the flat he was staying on well to win and it could all be down to whether he stays this far. The booking of Ryan Moore is very encouraging as he is the usual go to jockey for Simenon and Pique Sous who have both won at Royal Ascot in these types of races.

Statutory won on his last start at Pontefract and having won over 2m2f this puts him at an advantage as he is proven over long distance races. He was sent off just 5/1 for the Queen Alexandra Stakes last year and made his move 3 wide down the far side, coming into the straight he got very tired and was eased once his chance was gone with a furlong or so to go. The drop back in distance should suit and he is now rated 97 having been 100 that day. With James Doyle riding he should be given a good ride and may surprise a few at a decent price.

Fun Mac made a mockery of his handicap mark last time out at Salisbury when beating the in form William of Orange by 11 lengths and is raised 14lb for that win however he is deserved of his chance in a big race such as this one. Still lightly raced he is likely to have more to come however it is unclear whether the extra distance will suit or not. Richard Hughes should give this one a good ride and again his chance may be determined by his ability or not to stay this 2m4f trip.

Ray Ward has probably had this race as his target after a very unlucky 6th last year. After travelling on the inside for most of the race a few front runners who were struggling fell back into his lap and he had nowhere to go and was shuffled all the way to the back of the field. His 5th also to Leading Light is very good form at Ascot and he should have a good chance of at least placing this year. He made a very eyecatching and pleasing reappearance when staying on over just 1m2f.

Hurricane Higgins is the first of the Nicky Henderson duo and will have to carry round top weight of 9 stone 10 to win this. After 2 and ½ years off the track he made a winning reappearance at Lingfield before finishing 5th on Finals day. A subsequent win in a Novice hurdle should have him cherry ripe for this and he has won a similar handicap over 2m5f at Goodwood so the distance shouldn’t be an issue. Despite being top weight he is only rated 99 currently having prevuiously been as high as 109 and ran in a Group 1 event.

Broxbourne returns to the flat after not running on the flat for over 600 days. After progressing nicely for Mark Johnston he appeared to have found his level when disappointing in both the Cesarewitch Trial and the main event itself before being sent to Nicky Henderson to go hurdling. With 2 wins to his name he has made a good fist of hurdling including a 2nd in a Listed event at Cheltenham. Reverting to the flat probably isn’t ideal and his mark of 90 may be slightly high.

Clondaw Warrior has to be selected with everything looking right for him and at 8/1 you should get a run for your money. Statutory may be played later and at 25/1 looks overpriced as does Hurricane Higgins at 20/1 who may continue his march back up the ranks in the flat sphere.
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Windsor Castle Stakes

Twice in the last 6 years this has been won by raiding party Wesley Ward including with impressive winner Hootenaany last year. This year he sends across Ruby Notion who won impressively on debut.

Washington DC is TOP RATED and is one of the more experienced runners in the race with 3 runs under his belt. After finishing 2nd on debut to Blood Moon he stepped up on that effort to win easily at Tipperary before finishing 2nd to Round Two in a Listed race at Curragh. This looks to be one of the best performances so far and if Round Two goes well earlier on in the Coventry Stakes then the price about Washington DC is likely to dramatically shorten. Out of Zoffany (who pushed Frankel close at Royal Ascot in 2011) he should handle the course and with Ryan Moore riding he is sure to be given a good ride. Drawn in stall 6 isn’t great however and he may have to stay down the centre of the track which hasn’t been good in recent years.

Soapy Aitken comes into this race unbeaten having won on debut at Leicester before following up at Windsor when beating Silver Wings with ease and he should maintain these places. He was slowly into stride that day but finished his race really well but if he is slowly away again today then he might not be able to get back into the race as easily as at Windsor. Drawn in stall 4 isn’t ideal and he too may have stay in the centre of the track.

Steady Pace has a bit of a better draw in 14 and made his debut over CD and beat both Beaverbrook and King of Rooks who are both going to be tried in better races than this one. He was unable to maintain this positions with King of Rooks on his 2nd start at Sandown however he was trapped out wide that day and back at Ascot he is likely to fair much better as Dark Angel progeny do run well here.

Nelspruit appears to be the Hannon 2nd string based on jockey bookings and whilst has performed with credit so far looks to have to improve significantly to get involved at the finish here. After a 2nd on debut he won at Goodwood despite having to be ridden along before finishing 2nd at Epsom to Buratino. He was well beaten by Buratino however and it’s likely there are a few too good here.

Orvar is one that catches the eye from further down the ratings, having won impressively on debut despite appearing very green and has also been selected by Richard Hughes as his ride in the race. Being out of Dandy Man he should handle the course well and is well drawn in stall 17. With that experience under his belt he should improve and could be a major player in this race.

Washington DC has the form in the book and looks a worth favourite and although poorly drawn he should be given a good ride by Ryan Moore. The 11/2 is just about big enough. Steady Pacewon well on debut here and should bounce back and with a decent draw he should go well. 7/1 looks a decent bet.