With the National Hunt Season fast approaching we have highlighted 11 horses that we think will be very hard to beat in their respective races and feel there are a few Cheltenham Festival winners in this list.

Vautour: Vautour was highlighted the day before he made his British debut as being one of the horses that would be a main player in the Novice hurdle division and this turned out to be true with Vautour being unbeaten all season including winning the Supreme Novices Hurdle at Cheltenham in very impressive fashion in a time that was quicker than both Champagne Fever and Al Ferof who both won this race and went on to do just as well over fences. Josses Hill finished 2nd and went on to frank the form by winning the Grade 2 hurdle at Aintree.

Vautour was then stepped up to 2m4f in Tattersalls Ireland Champion Novice Hurdle which he appeared to relish and he was never in danger. Having stepped up in distance, he showed that he would stay further in time and could well be aimed at the 3m RSA Chase .

Vautour’s sire Robin Des Champs has a 22% strike rate at 2 miles and this is roughly maintained all the way up 3m1f with a 26% strike rate at 3 miles and the RSA Chase looks like being the right choice.
Willie Mullins has only had 2 Robin Des Champs progeny go chasing in recent years with one being Sire Des Champs who went on to finish 2nd in a Gold Cup behind Bobs Worth. The other has had one run in a Beginner chase and was a short head 2nd.

Whatever distance he tackles and if he is sent over fences he will be very hard to beat.

Predicted Cheltenham Festival Target: RSA Chase

Faugheen: Faugheen is another Willie Mullins novice hurdler that was unbeaten last season which included very impressively winning at the Cheltenham Festival in the Neptune Investment Management Novices’ Hurdle. He too went to the Punchestown festival and doubled up by winning the 2m Herald Champion Novice Hurdle by 12 lengths. On strict form lines using Sgt Reckless and Josses Hill (Faugheen beat Josses Hill by 22 lengths in a bumper), his form is probably better than Vautour’s and is the one that is likely to be kept over hurdles.

Wins between 2m and 3m means he is really versatile with distance and could be aimed at anything from the Champion Hurdle to the World Hurdle at Cheltenham. I think due to having the stamina having won over 3m he should be aimed at the 2 mile Cheltenham Champion Hurdle and asked to try and make all which worked really well at Punchestown.

Again whatever distance and race type he is sent over he should be very hard to beat as he has a devastating turn of foot and high cruising speed.

Looking at her breeding, she is out of Germany whose progeny have a 19% strike rate at 2 miles (14/72) and whilst they also have an 18% strike rate at 3 miles the dataset is very limited (2/11).
As well as showing that staying over the shorter distance is the premium option, Germany progeny also have a much better record in non-handicap hurdles than they do in non-handicap chases.

Predicted Cheltenham Festival Target: Champion Hurdle

Shaneshill: Finished last season with 3 wins and 1 2nd with his only defeat coming in the Cheltenham Bumper where he was beaten by Silver Concorde. He reversed this form at Punchestown and was probably the better of the 2 overall. He looks the sort that will stay further than 2 miles and he is likely to be targeted at either the 2m5f Neptune or the 3m Albert Bartlett.

He looks like a big strong horse and is probably not going to be at his best until he starts chasing but in the meantime he should run some very big races in all the Grade 1 Novices over 2m4f+

Looking at statistics his Sire’s (King’s Theatre) progeny have a 13% strike at 2 miles including Cue Card who placed in the Supreme Novices Hurdle before being stepped up in distance. The New One, Menorah, Voler La Vedette, Fingal Bay are all out of King’s Theatre and all of these have run over further and it’s still debateable whether 2 mile is the optimum trip for The New One.

Again the statistics back up our suggestion that he won’t be seen to his best when going chasing . King’s Theatre progeny have a 18.1% strike rate in non-handicap hurdles compared a 22% strike rate in non-handicap chases.

Predicted Cheltenham Festival Target: Neptune Novices Hurdle

Analifet: Analifet could be the forgotten horse this year after a near career ending injury put an early end to her season last year. Before this injury she had been winning in very impressive fashion including beating Noble Inn and Clarcam who had close form lines with the likes of Tiger Roll and Guitar Pete. It will be a great site if Analifet does make it back to the track and if she retains all of her ability then she should be able to make her presence felt.

A very speedy type who has a very good hurdling technique she could well be kept at 2 miles and even in the Mares events where despite having Annie Power as a main danger, I have a feeling Annie Power will be tried over fences. With Annie Power out of the way the Mares division would be hers to dominate and she could well be the next Quevega.

Analifet is out of Califet who is a relative new Sire and whilst he has a good record with Juvenile hurdlers none have really continued progressing which is why we feel that Analifet should take the slightly easier option of the Mare’s events than taking on her male counterparts in her first few runs back from her injury.

Predicted Cheltenham Festival Target: Mares Hurdle

Boston Bob: When Boston Bob finished 2nd in the Albert Bartlett hurdle a few years ago, some of our team instantly said he was the ideal type for the RSA Chase and the Gold Cup. After making his way into the lead in the RSA Chase he fell at the last when probably getting the better of Lord Windermere who went on to win the Gold Cup. After falling twice in succession he was reverted to hurdles to get his confidence back but he was poor and finished last of 6th. A return to fences over 2m5f at Cheltenham followed but he was badly outpaced before running on at the end.

After appearing to have list his way slightly he was sent to Aintree where despite trailing for most of the race he picked up late on and sprinted clear in very taking fashion. Back at Punchestown he was stepped up in distance again to 3m1f where he excelled and comfortably beat First Lieutenant and Long Run.

With his confidence now back he should be aimed at the Grade 1 chases over 3m+ including the Hennessy Gold Cup at Leopardstown and the Cheltenham Gold Cup. If he jumps round safely then he should go close in both of these.

Being out of Bob Back means he is out of the same sire as Back In Focus (4 mile chase winner at Cheltenham) and Bobs Worth (Gold Cup winner at Cheltenham) so stamina shouldn’t be an issue and staying over 3 mile+ does look likely.

Predicted Cheltenham Festival Target: Cheltenham Gold Cup

Wonderful Charm: Wonderful Charm is a horse who has shown enough potential to warrant being included in this list and if he can continue improving then he could yet make his name at the top of the tree in Graded races. After racking up decent victories at Fakenham, Wincanton and Newbury he was beaten by Oscar Whiskey at Cheltenham giving the victor 8lb and was then unable to keep up at the Festival in the JLT Novices Chase. Stepping up to 3 miles looks a decent plan for this horse and a race such as the Hennessy Gold Cup at Newbury looks like a race that would suit him.

Running in this race would give connections an idea as to whether he is good enough to compete at the highest level or whether he should be aimed at some decent handicaps or be campaigned over further in time for the likes of the Welsh National. We think he should be able to hold his own in a race such as the Hennessy.

Interesting the stats don’t really back up this claim that may be better at 3 miles + and they suggest that dropping down to 2 mile might be a better option. A 19% strike rate at 2 miles is considerably better than a 9% strike rate a 3 miles. The drop in distance may bring his jumping into play as he has impressed with his jumping to date however despite this we would still like to see him at least given a chance over 3 miles+

Grand Crus: Grand Crus looked to have the world at his feet when starting his career over fences which included winning the Feltham at Kempton where he beat Silviniaco Conti and Bobs Worth. However after disappointing at Cheltenham in the RSA Chase he hasn’t looked the same horse since. That said if he is kept in training and with his mark now tumbling he could well be off a winnable handicap mark. If over the summer David Pipe has managed to straighten him out then he would be a force to be reckoned with.

The Paddy Power Gold Cup Chase at Cheltenham in November could be an ideal target again as something was clearly amiss in 2012 when he stopped to nothing on very soft ground. If he could get there in one piece with the ground on the good side then he would surely run a very big race.

Grands Crus is out of Dom Alco meaning he should jump well which to date he has and his strike rates are high at most distances between 2 and 3 miles. Interestingly his strike rates are better on Good to soft or good going and this would explain why he went out like a light in the Paddy Power Gold Cup Chase a few seasons ago when appearing to be travelling well for most of the race.

Green Flag: Green Flag was highlighted last year after winning at Ayr that he would be an ideal Scottish National or Cheltenham 4 mile type and this looked to be spot on when he hit the front in the Scottish National with 2 to jump. He got very tired late on and ended up finishing 6th but I’m sure connections were very pleased with this effort and will be coming back this year for another crack.

Green Flag jumps really well and needs to as he appears to be a plodder more than anything else. With this National experience under his belt and a year older he should be a big force in these staying events and could even take in the Midlands National on his way to this race. As his jumping is normally very good he could be aimed at the Grand National at Aintree but being a 7 year old there should be no rush for this.

Green Flag is out of Milan who is the same sire as last year’s Welsh National 1st and 3rd in Mountainous and One In A Milan, Grimthorpe Chase winner Night in Milan, Cross Country winner Big Shu and Grand National current favourite Double Seven so stamina shouldn’t be an issue.

Statistics also agree with a 20% strike rate for Milan progeny at 3m2f. Over 3m5f in recent years there have been 5 runners of which 2 have won (40% strike rate).

Suntiep: Suntiep has only had 6 runs in his career despite being 8 with 4 of these being wins. He appeared to be very unlucky at Cheltenham when he was a fast finishing 3rd in the 4 mile race. Patrick Mullins in hindsight probably should have kept him closer and in contention turning for home but being as inexperienced as he is this was a very pleasing run.

Having shown he stays 4 miles then the extreme distance races have to be on his agenda including the Grand National at Aintree and the Irish Grand National at Fairyhouse. He could however be switched into the Cross Country scene where it has looked for the past few years that Willie Mullins has been trying to find a horse who can cope with these types of races and Suntiep looks perfect for this.

Suntiep is out of Ungaro who is a relative unknown as a Sire in the UK however one horse that is known having raced at Cheltenham in the Cross Country Chase is Sacree Tiepy. Having finished a decent 6th he showed that stamina wasn’t an issue and hopefully Suntiep will be the same. With very little to go on we have to trust our judgement.

Milsean: Had 3 runs in bumpers for Willie Mullins and these resulted in 2 wins and 1 2nd behind No More Heroes (who also makes this shortlist). He comfortably Bonzo Bing on debut with this having previously finished 3rd behind Silver Concorde by a similar distance and then Milsean took on No More Heroes where he had to settle for a 2 ¼ length 2nd which was a very good run considering he was giving away 5lb (jockey claim on No More Heroes). Milsean bounced back to winning ways on his next start when winning by 25 lengths and surely looks a horse to follow this season over hurdles. Having won bumpers over 2m3f on heavy going he is likely to be campaigned over 2m4f – 3m with the Albert Bartlett probably his target at the Cheltenham Festival.

Statistics once again agree with our form and visual analysis. Out of Milan this horse could be a future staying hurdler or chaser but a 13% strike rate at 2m4f and 14% at 3m is a decent strike rate and although stats suggest he will be better as a chaser (15.65% compared to 12.2% hurdling), he should still be able to make his presence felt as a hurdler.

Predicted Cheltenham Festival Target: Albert Bartlett Novices Hurdle

No More Heroes: Fits in the same category as Milsean and had these not both been owned by Gigginstown then surely they would have been contesting all the Grade 1 novice events over 2m4f+.

After a disappointing hurdles debut when only 4th over 2m he was dropped back to the flat and stepped up in distance which worked wonders. After winning by a huge 39 lengths he took on Milsean and came out on top in what looked like a race of 2 future champions.

Between Milsean and No More Heroes, Gigginstown could well dominate the novice division over 2m4f +.
No More Heroes is out of Presenting who has sired some smart hurdlers who have gone on to be very smart chasers including Denman, War of Attrition and Weapon’s Amnesty (the latter two owned by Gigginstown) and statistics agree that he won’t be at his best until he’s sent over fences. A 9% strike rate at 2 mile compared to 13% at 3 mile indicates that they probably lack the pace for 2 mile events and the Neptune or further should be an ideal Cheltenham Festival target.

Predicted Cheltenham Festival Target: Neptune Novices Hurdle