Newcastle 15:45 John Smith's Northumberland Plate

Newcastle 15:45 John Smith’s Northumberland Plate

The feature race at Newcastle is the Northumberland Plate which Dr Koukash owned the first 2 home and both are back this year.

Oasis Fantasy was one of the eyecatchers of the Epsom Derby festival when a fast finishing 3rd behind Blue Surf. After being drawn wide he was dropped in by Richard Hughes and was travelling well turning into the straight but was met by a wall of horses and it took a long time before Hughes was able to switch out wide and finish really well. This good effort backed up his previous 2nd over 1m6f at Goodwood when he was just unable to catch Quest for More who reopposes on 1lb worse terms. At Goodwood Oasis Fantasy made rapid late ground to reel in Quest For More but just ran out of time to get past. The Newcastle course should suit as Oasis Dream progeny have a good record at this course and the long straight of over 3 furlongs should suit as this should give him plenty of time to get a clear run.

Gabrials Star represents last years winning trainer and owner in Richard Fahey and Dr Marwan Koukash and this horse has been saved for this race since finishing a staying on 5th in the Chester Cup. He was probably a bit unlucky in the Chester Cup as he was unable to get a clear run and was shuffled back just as they coming into the straight which cost him both ground and momentum. After switching out wide he then ran into the back of Angel Gabrial but once straightened up he was finishing just as well as anything including the winner Trip to Paris who has since won the Ascot Gold Cup at Royal Ascot. The drop back in distance shouldn’t be a problem as he has won over 1m4f and 1m6f on the turf and the long straight should mean they get racing early enough to bring his stamina into the race. Being out of Hernando the course shouldn’t be a problem and as we have said the long straight again should suit and we think he should go very close.

Aramist has won and placed twice in his last 3 runs and probably deserves a step up to a competitive handicap as such. He was a very impressive winner at Hamilton on soft ground when requiring significant riding from Kieren Fallon and he ran in similar fashion on his next start when a staying on 2nd to Elidor. He looked to be a real handful of a ride that day and this could be a struggle for David Allan. If he gets himself too far behind in a such a big field there may be a few that have flown before he gets into top gear.

Seamour is highly regarded by Brian Ellison and after winning a competitive handicap at Haydock he steps up to this handicap as one of the most unexposed horses in the race. A rise of 8lb means he has to improve again to get involved here but being only a 4 year old this could well be possible. He sat just behind the front few at Haydock on the inside so saved ground throughout and was always travelling well. Silvestre De Sousa takes over riding and whilst he should go well this race is likely to be run at a much faster pace than his previous races and this may take him out of his comfort zone. If he can go with this faster pace then he would be a big player as Azamour progeny generally run well here.

Buthelezi won at Musselburgh after being switched back from fences and he made all that day over 1m6f. He stepped up to 2m2f at Chester for the Chester Cup and again attempted to make all but got tired late on but as already mentioned this was a strong Chester Cup. He dropped back to 1m4f at Epsom at a course that was unlikely to suit and probably went too hard despite having the stamina for this. He got caught late on but was only 2 lengths behind the winner and is 1lb better off with Oasis Fantasy and 5lb better off with Blue Surf. The step back up to 2m should suit and it’s interesting to see Ben Curtis jump off Seamour and onto Buthelezi. This course should suit and we think he will go well.

Gabrials King finished 4th in the Chester Cup over 2m2f and travelled prominently that day before getting tired late on. The form of that race has worked out really well with the winner Trip to Paris since winning the Ascot Gold Cup. A change of tactics were employed next time at Haydock and again he travelled well before failing to pick up as well as Jamie Spencer had hoped. He may lack a turn of foot and racing prominently might suit better. A Hurricane Run Gelding the course statistics indicate he should go better here at Newcastle (15.4%) than at Chester (13.6%) and a poorer run was expected at Haydock (11.4%). Paul Hanagan takes the ride and he is one of the better jockeys at this course and should know roughly where to position Gabrials King to get the best out of him. Whilst he is 2lb higher than when running at Chester he still looks feasibly handicapped for this race. Last year the Koukash colours with the Blue cap won this race and hopefully this can happen again this year.

Top Rated can’t be ignored as there doesn’t appear to be any negative and the 11/1 about Oasis Fantasy looks a reasonable price. Gabrials Star should go well if the long straight means he can get rolling early enough. The 2m trip is likely to suit Buthelezi and the return to being ridden prominently should see Gabrials King go much better. These are available at 11/1, 16/1, 25/1 and 10/1 respectively and are all worth small wagers.