Almandin:

The obvious starting point to the race as not only is he TOP RATED again but he also won the race last year when TOP RATED. He’s had 3 runs since which included a win at Flemington in September when easily winning a Listed race. Only 4^th last time out when sent off the 6/5 favourite he was probably not really going for it as the winner of this race wins nearly 20 x as much prize money!

Frankie has been booked to ride this year and although 10lb higher, if we took out Heartbreak City (who was well handicapped) he would have won easily. He is sure to go close again.

Max Dynamite

Max Dynamite was 2^nd in this race 2 years ago when ridden by Frankie Dettori when I think he should have won and would have won with a clear run. Frankie switched wide and wider still in the final straight before finishing really well but lost too much ground on the winner by making these switches. He closed to within ½ length and would be running here of 3lb lower.

10^th in Group 1 and 9^th in a Galway Hurdle when sent off the 7/2 favourite haven’t been great performances but I feel this has been the target and a confidence boosting win at Killarney when quickening away in a race run in a similar style to what we are likely to get was very encouraging.

Zac Purton rides this year and he’s a great jockey and riding really well at the moment with a 25% strike rate (8/32) in the last 14 days. Drawn in 2 he is likely to go forward and sit in 4^th or 5^th on the inside and hope the gaps appear.

Rekindling

Rekindling has some smart 3 year old form including when 4^th in the St Leger and 2^nd in the Irish St Leger behind Order of St George. He clearly has ability and the distance won’t be an issue and with his owners being Australian this could well have been the long term plan.

As a 3 year old he gets all the allowances and only carries 8-2 despite being rated 114 which gives him a great chance. Having contested all the big races including the St Leger and the Derby he shouldn’t lack for experience and I can see him going close if they go fast enough as I think he stays well and wants a good pace to run at. Drawn in 4 helps as he shouldn’t be caught wide but may need gaps to appear as he’s likely to be held up more than Max Dynamite.

Hartnell

Hartnell looks overpriced. He was 3^rd last year off a 4lb lower mark and whilst he has a lot to do to turn the form around with Almandin, the pair who beat Hartnell were both well ahead of their marks.

Hartnell was sent off the 9/2 favourite last, has proven himself over the distance and possibly hit the front too soon last year as he came there looking like he was going to win. At 25/1 he looks a good each way bet from a draw that should suit.

He’s with James Cummings now and if that trainer switch improves him a bit then I wouldn’t be surprised to see him run another big race here.

US Army Ranger

US Army Ranger is a love me or hate me horse and is likely to be either given a peach of a ride by Jamie Spencer or a terrible ride where he runs into every bit of trouble possible.

He finished 2^nd in the 2016 Derby behind Harzand but hasn’t hit those heights since however has been contesting some of the Top Group races since. His best run recently came over 2m5f when 3^rd at Royal Ascot. Dropped back to 2m for a Group 1 at Goodwood he was only 8^th but that was a group race and the hood that was on has quickly been dropped.

He’s been given a mark which would be 10lb lower than last year had he come here and under a jockey who can ride these hold up horses really well I may be inclined to have a ‘buck’ each way on him!

Thomas Hobson

Thomas Hobson is the 2^nd Mullins/Ricci horse and has a chance as we know he still stay this far. A winner at Ascot in June over 2m4f he finished 2^nd again at Royal Ascot just 4 days later. He wasn’t beaten far at York when those at the front probably went too hard.

His 2^nd at Doncaster recently behind Desert Skyline when held up again was a good run as he was trying to give a very talented 3-year-old 12lb. Although drawn wide, the aim is to get covered up and hope they go quick out front.

If they do then he should travel through the race well and would be finishing well. The Ricci’s appear to have one of each (fast pace, slow pace) horses and one of these should be in the finish!

Marmelo

Marmelo has form with Thomas Hobson through Desert Skyline and on these form lines there really isn’t much between these.

Marmelo was last seen finishing a staying on 6^th over 1m4f and the extra trip is bound to suit and I would expect Marmelo to reverse the form with Johannes Vermeer who finished in 3^rd but only just in front in the aforementioned race.

Marmelo has run his best races to date when going prominent and drawn in 16 isn’t ideal for this tactic and I think this could be a crucial negative for Marmelo which is why I am going to discount from my selections.

Selections:

Cases could also be made for Humidor (2nd to Winx last time out), Johannes Vermeer (Group form in Ireland) , Wall of Fire (should appreciate the trip) but I’m hoping the winner is in the above 7 and more importantly in the below 4!

My 4 against the field this year are:

Almandin @ 9/1

Max Dynamite @ 15/1

Rekindling @ 12/1

Hartnell @ 30/1

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