Using our statistical analysis and our knowledge we have found some hurdlers and chasers that we feel will have big seasons running in handicaps or when they are sent to handicap events.

Kris Spin: Kris Spin has been handicapping in hurdle races already and has finished 2nd on 7 of his last 8 runs with 4 of these handicaps. His 2nd place finishes have been to some classy horses including Silsol who went on to win the Welsh Champion Hurdle and 2nd in the Grade 2 National Spirit Hurdle. His most recent 2nd was to Broadway Buffalo giving him 4lb. Broadway Buffalo has since finished in a Chase at the Cheltenham Festival as well as 6th in the Scottish National. Kris Spin last finished 2nd off a mark of 140 but looks to have bumped into some decent sorts and could well land a big handicap this year.

Mister Miyagi: This is a bold selection considering he has already won a maiden hurdle however the previous winners of that race included Lac Fontana and Court Minstrel who have both won high class hurdles including Lac Fontana winning a race at the Cheltenham Festival in 2013. Mister Miyagi is a Zagreb Gelding and they have a 11.6% strike rate in handicap hurdles compared to just 5.1% in Novice and Graded hurdles.

Count Danilo: Count Danilo has failed to complete his last 2 hurdle races having won his first in impressive fashion when beating the 133 rated Saffron Wells. He then went to Haydock and was still travelling really well when overjumping at the 3rd last and falling. This appeared to really knock his confidence and he never travelled the same on his next run when once again he came down 2 from the finish. He hasn’t run since his last fall in March 2014 and hopefully he has simply been schooled at home before making his return this season although he isn’t on David Pipes books anymore.

Tell Us More: Tell Us More could well do something similar to Wicklow Brave this year. Having won both his bumper and maiden hurdle impressively he was sent off 4/5 for a Grade 1 hurdle at Naas but finished ¾ length 2nd in which we feel Bryan Cooper may have been caught napping. He then didn’t run again until the Cheltenham Festival where he finished a good 6th to Douvan in the Supreme Novices Hurdle. He turned into the straight in a great position but just wasn’t able to live with some very smart horses however he has been given a mark of 138 for this run. Wicklow Brave won at the Cheltenham Festival in the Vincent O’Brien off this exact mark. Tell Us More is by Scorpion who have a 8.1% strike rate in Novice and Graded hurdles compared to a much improved 17.4% strike rate in handicaps.

Might Bite: Might Bite has had 2 runs in hurdle races and won them both. A very easy win at Newbury was followed up by winning at Cheltenham beating Souriyan and has also been given a mark of 138 and therefore eligible to run in some good handicaps. The previous winners of the race at Cheltenham include Bensalem, Restless Harry, Whisper and Garde La Victoire. Off a mark of 138 he should be very competitive and could be saved for a big handicap before going chasing next year. Running in handicaps should suit as once again he is by Scorpion meaning an improved strike rate for handicaps than Novice and Graded hurdles.

Vintage Vinnie: Vintage Vinnie was a very easy winner on chase debut beating Upswing by 29 lengths before falling on his 2nd start over fences at Cheltenham. He’s not yet been given a mark however the handicapper may not be too harsh as Upswing is rated just 136. Anything around the 146 mark would look lenient and he could well be saved now for a big handicap at the Cheltenham or Aintree festivals. Vinnie Roe progeny also generally improve for running in handicaps having a 11.5% strike rate in Novice or Graded chases compared to a 17.9% strike rate in handicap chases. Having had a fall, hopefully connections will be patient with him and school him well at home before coming back for a big handicap.

Emcon: Emcon is similar to Vintage Vinnie with a very impressive win on chase debut when beating Carrigmoorna Rock who had won a Grade 3 hurdle last year at Leopardstown. This form looks strong and given that Emcon was only rated 122 over hurdles then she might be leniently judged on her win on chase debut. Should she be sent handicapping then she should improve for this as she is also a Vinnie Roe mare and handicap chases are statistically more suited. We will look out for her getting a handicap mark.