With the flat season now in full swing and 2 of the 5 classics already run, the next big features to look forward to are the Epsom Oaks and Derby and the Royal Ascot meeting. Having seen many of the below have at least one run, we believe that these horses if run over our suggested distances are horses to watch out for in the remaining months of the season and hopefully will include a few Royal Ascot winners.

Flat Season 2015 – Horses To Follow

Tiggy Wiggy – after running a poor effort in the Fred Darling when only 3rd @ 11/10 she was stepped up in distance to 1 mile for the 1000 Guineas at Newmarket. Another 3rd place finish was a better effort in the context of the race however she once again showed blistering speed and was bang there with a furlong or so to go. Both Lucida and Legatissimo had too much stamina for her in the end and she was getting very tired late on. It would appear that Richard Hannon and Richard Hughes both now feel that she’ll be better as a sprinter as statistics agree. Kodiac Progeny have a 14% strike rate at 5f, 11% at 6f, 10% at 7f and just 7% at 1m. This clearly shows that the sprint distances will suit more and for Tiggy Wiggy to have finished 3rd in the 1000 Guineas over 1 mile was probably a very good effort. There are plenty of potential races for Tiggy Wiggy including the Darley July Cup at Newmarket (July Course) where Richard Hannon does well with his runners with a 15% strike rate in the last 5 years. She could also be aimed at the Nunthorpe at York although with Richard Hannon not having a great record here with only a 9% strike rate here in the last 5 years the Darley July Cup would probably be the more favourable option. Richard Hannon also has a very good 17.7% strike rate with his sprinters whereas this decreases to 10.7% over middle or long distance races.

Limato – looked very impressive last season winning all 4 runs comfortably culminating in an effortless display in the Two-Year-Old Trophy at Redcar. Before his reappearance this season, his trainer felt he may need the run however he won the Pavilion Stakes at Ascot again in really easy fashion. The form has worked out well with Adaay winning since and Tendu finishing an unlucky 2nd at York. Limato is a Tagula colt and statistics suggest that he should stay in the sprint races with a 11% strike rate at both 5f and 6f races. He may well come up against Tiggy Wiggy in some of these races and this would really test him. Being trained by Henry Candy he should do well with him as his record with sprinters is good as he has shown previously with the likes of Markab and Mister Music. His 13.8% strike in sprint events decreases to 9.2% with his runners in races of 1 mile or further.

Hootenaany – was a very impressive winner at Royal Ascot last year over 5f before a 2nd in the Prix Morny behind The Wow Signal before winning at the Breeders Cup in the Juvenile Turf race. After a decent comeback run this season at Keeneland he looks like Colt that can come back to Royal Ascot and be a big challenger in a Group 1 event. The Commonwealth Cup has been suggested as a target where he would probably take on both of the above and this would make this race a great spectacle. After the Commonwealth Cup, the likes of the Darley Cup could also be on his agenda before returning for another crack at the Breeders Cup. Wesley Ward has always had a good record with his sprinters and his 18.9% strike rate in sprint events decreases to just 4% when over 1 mile or further.

Found – ran a reasonable race on her comeback before a much better effort when 2nd in the Irish 1000 Guineas. This was a very good run and the winner probably got first run on her as Found had to wait to get a clear run. Being out of Galileo she should get further in time (16% strike rate at 1 mile and 16% strike rate at 1m4f) and there has been talk of her running in the English Derby at Epsom. Although Golden Horn was very impressive in the Dante, the rest of the probable field haven’t really set the world alight and with this in mind and Aiden O’Brien appearing to have a good string for the Oaks then taking on the Colts might not be a bad idea. Epsom should suit as Galileo progeny have a good record here and she could be the one to take on the boys and beat them. Leopardstown is another track that should suit and so targeting one of the feature races at the Irish Champions Weekend is also an option. Aiden O’Brien is renowned for dominating middle distance races including winning the Derby for the last 3 years and his runners maintain a 16% strike in races over 1m2f or further.

Cursory Glance – beat Lucida (2nd in English 1000 Guineas), Found (2nd in Irish 1000 Guineas), Malabar (4th in English 1000 Guineas) last season at the Curragh and her targets this year could range from 6f (20%) to 1m4f (14%). We think she is probably a very good miler and the Coronation Stakes at Ascot is the target whilst a similar event at Curragh over Champions Weekend would also be high on her agenda before possibly going abroad to the Breeders Cup. Roger Varian does really well with his runners that are campaigned between 7f and 1m2f with a very impressive 20.8% strike rate from his last 5 years of runners.

Very Special – is a Godolphin filly that could be just that, Very Special. After winning on debut at Yarmouth, she looked green and in need of further when 3rd at Newmarket. Her 3rd place to Osaila now looks better form than at the time and the further she goes the better she will be. Her Dam is by Danehill and we think she could be a future 1m4f to 1m6f filly. She has an entry in the Oaks but it’s unlikely she will go here without a true prep race but Royal Ascot we think is very much on the agenda. Once again the course layout of Leopardstown (33.3% strike rate for Dam Sire Progeny) and she could be one to pop up in a decent race without too much hype about her. Saeed Bin Suroor and Godolphin have struggled in recent years and do not dominate like they used however his runners still maintain an 18.1% strike rate over 1m2f or further.

Air Pilot – is now a 6 year old but has only had 7 runs in his career. After wins at Newbury and Newmarket last year he looks a group horse and despite never travelling at Chester he still ran a respectable 3rd and Royal Ascot is definitely the plan after a run at Sandown later this week. He should handle Sandown better than Chester and put his name into the reckoning for one of the bigger events at Royal Ascot. Currently campaigned at 1m2f he could well step up in distance in the future as the 1m6f (24%) could suit better than 1m2f (11%). Ralph Beckett has a good record in Oaks and Derby trials including with Secret Gesture a few years ago who went on to place in the Oaks and has continued her good form this season and so can clearly train older horses.

Century – is a horse we are waiting for at Royal Ascot. After an eyecatching run at Chester last year, a good 2nd at Royal Ascot in the Queens Vase followed. We felt he denied a run on multiple times and was also hampered by the winner who drifted out into Century inside the final furlong that day and should have won and with the winner Hartnell now winning Group races abroad, we feel Century may have been overlooked. 2 miles and further (2 miles = 10%, 2m1f = 12%, 2m2f = 10%, 2m3f = 14% and 2m4f = 11%) are certainly options and a tilt at the Ascot Gold Cup is probably the target and again he looks very overpriced for this race. Races such as the Irish St Leger could also be on his radar with the Curragh course likely to suit. Races over 2 miles+ are quite limited however in recent years, Aiden O’Brien has a 20.5% strike rate and hopefully Century can increase this in the coming season.

Forgotten Rules is a horse we feel could end up the season unbeaten as having won over a distance probably on the short side last time out and without fitness on his side shows how talented he is. 4 wins from 4 races including in a 2 mile bumper means this potentially dual purpose horse could be winning at Royal Ascot in June and Cheltenham in March with the World Hurdle the possible target. He could also be aimed at the Prix Cadran at Longchamp on Arc day in October. Any cut in the ground which is likely at Cheltenham and probably at Longchamp would suit as Nayef progeny have a 10% strike rate on good compared to a 14% strike rate on heavy. Dermot Weld is also a master of these long distance races with a 21.1% strike rate at races over 1m6f (Flat races only).