We asked Aaron the lead Horse Racing Data Analyst at RatingTheRaces what he thought of objective data for race placement:
“Horse racing is one of those sports with a lot of variables contributing the outcome of a race, so many variables that many people overlook the use of statistics and objective data analysis to help them with their decision making. We (ratingtheraces) can clearly and objectively see the trainers and owners who are making best placement decisions and unsurprising to us, those seem to align with who is taking the most prize money home with them at the end of the day. I think the example given here is an interesting one as Dan Skelton does take home a fair few prizes, however even if he is looking at statistics I would guess we can help him due to our being a specialist in this space. (Horse Racing analytics)”
How could Dan Skelton win £100,000 more?
Results Achieved since January 1st 2016
Dan Skelton has 71 winners in UK and Ireland since January 1st 2016 from 399 runners at a strike rate of 17.79% which overall is quite a good strike.
Using our ratings we can break this down further.
When his horses have been TOP RATED on RatingTheRaces Ratings he has had 41 winners from 119 runners at a very good 34.45% strike rate.
When his horses have been 2nd or 3rd rated on RatingTheRaces Ratings he has had 20 winners from 127 runners at a strike rate of 15.74%.
When his horses have been lower than 3rd rated on RatingTheRaces Ratings he has had 10 winners from 153 runners at a strike rate of 6.53%
68 of his horses have been rated 2nd on our ratings and with clever placement and looking for races which suit statistically we are confident that we could place 30 of these in races when they would be Top Rated.
A total of 43 of his horses have been rated 4th on our ratings and again with clever placement and looking for races which suit statistically we are confident that we could place 20 of these in races where they would be 3rd rated or higher.
After the initial 5 day declaration stage we can assess to see how high on the ratings the horse is likely to come out and can then decide whether to wait until a weaker race comes up or whether to take our chance.
Potential Results that could have been achieved
If we were able to place 30 of those 2nd rated horses into races where they become Top Rated this would mean Dan would have a total of 149 TOP RATED runners.
Based on winning an average of 34.45% of these he would achieve 51 winners. This is 10 more than what he did achieve.
If we were able to place 20 of those 4th rated horses into races where they become 3rd or 2nd rated this would mean Dan would have a total of 117 (127 – 30 + 20) 2nd or 3rd rated runners.
Based on winning an average of 15.74% of these he would achieve 18 winners.
His lower than 3rd rated horses would be reduced by 20 and he would therefore achieve 9 winners from these.
This would be a grand total of 78 winners compared to his 71 achieved. Whilst this is only an increase of 7 winners, this is a 9.85% INCREASE in his winners and his overall strike rate would be INCREASED to 19.54%.
A 9.85% increase in terms of prize money would be an additional £100,074.00!
Not only could he therefore achieve more winners and win more prize money but finding races which his horses can win can keep them in good form and high in confidence. A horse and jockey with more confidence will in itself bring more winners!
Harry Skelton would be likely to ride most of these and we in a previous blog analysed Harry’s rides and he has an excellent record on Top Rated and Top 3 rated runners.
Any business or company that could find a way to increase results by nearly 10% would jump at the opportunity. I wonder whether Dan Skelton will?