One of our Novice Chasers to follow this season made his chase debut on Saturday at Wincanton in the Grade 2 Rising Stars Novice Chase. Despite going off favourite at 13/8 he was fairly weak in the market. The late money came for Junction Fourteen who had won on chase debut at Uttoxeter just under a month ago when making all. Dropping back 2 furlongs he once again made nearly all the running to win. On first impressions it would appear that Arpege D’Alene was disappointing to not be able to win however there are a number of factors that probably were against him and we feel he will end up being the better of the 2 here.

Lay Off: Arpege D’Alene was having his first run for 266 days whereas Junction Fourteen had run just 23 days before.

Chase Debut: Junction Fourteen had already run and won over fences where as Arpege D’Alene was having his first run over fences.

Experience: Arpege D’Alene had only had 3 previous runs under rules compared to 13 for Junction Fourteen.

Rest of the field: L’unique was a good animal over hurdles having been rated as high as 149 however she was 34 lengths behind the front 2.

Dom Alco: Although being out of Dom Alco should mean that Arpege D’Alene will appreciate fences more, in the last 5 years in Novice Chases in races between 2m3f and 2m5f, Dom Alco progeny have won just 1 race from 7. That winner was Unioniste in a Novice Chase. Horses including Silviniaco Conti and Al Ferof have been beaten.

Where could he go next?

At the end of this month there is another Grade 2 Novice chase at Newbury won last year by Carraig Mor with the Paul Nicholls trained Southfield Theatre finishing 2nd. In the last 6 years Paul Nicholls has trained the winner 3 times and 2 2nd’s from his 5 runners. Dom Alco progeny in Chases at Newbury between 2m5f and 3m2f are 5/8 and this improves to 4/5 when limiting to Novice events with the only defeat coming when 2nd of 2 with Vivaldi Collognes when beaten by Kings Palace by 1 length. Should Arpege D’Alene turn up for this race then you would have think he would run a very big race.