Royal Ascot Analysis

Tacarib Bay has today (30th April 2024) been dropped 2lb to 101 which looks perfect with the Royal Hunt Cup in mind

Tacarib Bay ran arguably his only disappointing effort at Ascot on his first run at the track when a well beaten 11th of 15th in the Jersey Stakes in 2022. That said there were a few reasons you could give him for his poor run. He was hampered mid-race and shuffled back towards the rear of the field and he was more towards the middle of the track than the rail (which was vital in this race). The only horse who was wider than Tacarib Bay to make any late gains was Alflaila who was still only good enough for 10th (did go on to win a Group 2 and ended career finishing 5th in the 2023 Champion Stakes).

Only the 10 runners in this handicap but Tacarib Bay ran an absolute cracker for 2nd despite racing a bit keenly and seeing plenty of daylight. After eventually getting in behind Random Harvest, he was then blocked at a crucial time by Random Harvest & Dubai Mirage coming together and closing the gap that Rossa Ryan wanted. Stuck in behind whilst Tempus kicked for home, he had to be switched out from behind Random Harvest and move to the stand side to get a run and did well to get back up for 2nd. Tempus was winning off 103 that day before going on to win his next 2 runs at Salisbury in a Group 3 & then Deauville in another Group 3. Tacarib Bay was running off a mark of 106 (5lb higher than he is now).

A 20 runner race this time and another great run from Tacarib Bay finishing 3rd when travelling nicely in behind Johan. It’s very possible that they went too fast this day as 4 of the front 5 came from a long way back. After 2 furlongs, the front 4 were Johan (placed 16th), Symbolize (placed 17th), Stormy Antarctic (placed 18th) and Tacarib Bay (placed 3rd). We could extend on this further with the next few being Magical Morning (placed 14th), Casanova (placed 13th) and Perotto (placed 9th). It definitely looks like being held up that day was the place to be and we can upgrade the performance of Tacarib Bay for this run. This run came off a mark of 104 (3lb higher than his new mark)

A change of tactics this time over 7f with Sean Levey holding up the horse up and sitting 4th last in his group of 14 over the far side. Moving over to the far side of that group at the 2 pole he came there travelling and picking up really strongly. Hitting the front and going clear with just over 1f to go he kicked away from Fresh, Spangled Mac, Montassib, Popmaster and Bless Him all of whom have run well at Ascot before including winning at Royal Ascot or feature handicaps at Ascot. He won his side by nearly 2 lengths. This came off a mark of 103 (2lb higher than his new mark).

Having shown form over both 7f & 1m he could be aimed at either the Buckingham Palace Stakes or the Royal Hunt Cup but I feel the Royal Hunt Cup is worth going for. The prize money from last year was £51k for the Buckingham Palace Stakes & £90k for the Royal Hunt Cup. His 2nd over 1m behind Tempus looked a very strong run and in a big field he’s likely to get in the Royal Hunt Cup he should be able to get covered up & I think it would be worth dropping him out the back. Granted he would need luck in running but being over 1m, he doesn’t want to be playing his hand too early anyway and by the time he should be making his effort gaps will start appearing with horses getting tired/running poorly etc.

You really should be signed up for the BEST RATINGS & Analysis around!