The Melbourne Cup – The Race that stops a nation!

It really does! In Australia they have a bank holiday and Melbourne Cup parties. Do we have the same for the Gold Cup or the Grand National?

The main contenders

Deauville Legend

Deauville Legend won the Group 2 Voltigeur over 1m4f at York on his last start having also won the Bahrain Trophy over 1m5f. The 2m trip shouldn’t be a problem and you can understand why he’s 5/2 but is he worth backing at that price?

Without A Fight

Without A Fight has been beating John Leeper this season and I’m not sure that’s the strongest form. His 2^nd in the 1m4f Godolphin Stakes was a good effort (arguably better than a Listed race) but again is that form strong enough. Personally I think he’s a bit of a plodder.

Realm Of Flowers

I quite like Realm of Flowers and think the 2m trip will bring out the best of him. His effort last season at the track when 6^th staying on over 1m4f looked quite good and surely over 2m he would have been much closer. Last time out in the Metropolitan at Randwick he again ran a cracker over 1m4f when finishing 3^rd. Had it been over 1m5f he would have won. He really looks like a horse that will be even better over the 2m trip. He’s won over 1m6f and finished 5^th over 2m when he got shuffled back turning into the straight before again running on well.

Montefilia

Arguably ran her best race last time out when 4^th. He was 14^th turning into the final straight and ran into trouble. With a clear run she would have arguably won and suggests she’s bang in form coming into this race in similar style to last years winner.

Vow And Declare

Won this race in 2019 before finishing 18^th in 2020. He won carrying 8-3 and was well beaten carrying 9-0. This year he’s carrying 8-7 so 7lb lower than when being well beaten but only 4lb higher than when winning. It doesn’t take a lot of weight here to make a difference and I think Vow and Declare has been running some good races and just needs some luck. He was very unlucky in the Bart Cummings over 1m4f when finishing best of all for a never nearer 5^th. His effort in the Caulfield Cup was also good and I certainly think he can go well again this year.

Knights Order

Knights Order is interesting here as he’s 2 from 2 over 2m and both have been very impressive. He also gets his going (needs soft) and he’s probably not as classy as some of those above but he could well be tough to peg back from the front in the ground.

Gold Trip

Gold Trip finished 2^nd in the Caulfield Cup (in front of MANY of rivals here) but for me he was starting to paddle late on and that was over 1m4f. He does have a piece of form (3^rd in a Group 1) that is arguably the strongest of all the form but again this was over 1m4f. I’m not sure the 2m trip will suit him. He disappointed last time out over 1m2f and that wouldn’t give me much confidence.

Hoo Ya Mal

Has been long targeted at this race after his 2^nd in the Derby in England. He moved to a different trained for a few runs but his aim has been this race. His 3^rd over 1m4f looked an ideal prep race but his disappointing run in the St Leger when only 8^th of 9 doesn’t suggest he was as good as they had hoped. He also looks like he wanted better ground than he will get here.

Lunar Flare

Won 2 runs ago over 1m4f at Flemington before finishing 2^nd over 1m4f at Moonee Valley behind the horse who he had beaten at Flemington. We could take a line through Grande Promenade and Lunar Flare that arguably suggests Realm of Flowers will beat Lunar Flare. I don’t think Lunar Flare’s form is as strong as some of the others in this race.

Smokin Romans

Won over 1m2f at Flemington so has course form and beat Knights Order and Gold Trip that day however I think Knights Order will reverse this form over this 2m trip. Smokin Romans stepped up to 1m4f last time out and was fading late on and that doesn’t suggest to me that a further step up in trip will suit.