Liam’s 3 selections for the Melbourne Cup including one who is currently 150.0 on the Exchanges. 

Is Liam worth following though?

A few weeks ago, Liam highlighted that Champagne Well dropping 5lb for being pulled up at Chepstow was very generous. 

Today Champagne Well won on his next start at 20/1!

At the very least you should be following Liam for his posts like these!

Spanish Mission is one of only a few runners representing UK based trainers and with all the restrictions that were in place, you can’t imagine he was sent over without thinking they had an excellent chance of winning the race. This season his form has been very good.

He finished 5th in a Group 2 at Meydan, he then won over 1m5f at York in front of Sir Ron Priestley and Santiago before finishing a really good 3rd over 2m4f in the Ascot Gold Cup showing that this 2m trip at Flemington will not be an issue. 

He then arguably ran his best race when 2nd to Stradivarius in the Lonsdale Cup when pushing Stradivarius all the way and only going down by a head.

This is for me the strongest form in the race and it’s proper Group 1 stayers form rather than top class handicap form or Group 1 form over shorter trips. With both Twilight Payment and Delphi in the race, I think we should get a strong pace here and that should suit those held up. 

Verry Elleegant finished 7th in this race last year but got arguably the worst run of the race. She was held up out the back in a race that suited those who raced prominently, went to go around the outside coming into the turn but got blocked and had to stop his move, before going again and coming so far wide into the straight she must have given away MORE than what she ended up being beaten. She finished really strongly and was definitely unlucky in the race.

This year her form has been good again including beating Addeybb at Rosehill on soft ground which Addeybb runs his best races on. He finished 2nd to Addeybb on her next start showing that this run was no fluke. More recently she finished 4th behind Incentivise at Flemington but travelled best of all and probably didn’t have the turn of foot that the winner has but over 3/4 mile further I think she can reverse that form which may be good enough to win here. She finished 3rd last time out to State of Rest in the Cox Plate when again showing the 1m2f trip is too short and returning to 2m will really suit. I expect her to go very close if she gets a better run through this year.   

Master of Wine is a whopping 150.00 on the exchanges and on his overall form he deserves to be that price however if we JUST look at Flemington form, it reads 453. His 5th came behind Verry Elleegant (1st) and Finche (3rd) when beaten by just 3/4 length. His most recent 3rd at Flemington was very eyecatching as he got caught in traffic and still finished best of all to finish a never nearer 3rd behind Grande Promenade and Tralee Rose. With a clear run I think he actually beats the 2 in front and they are both 17.00 on the exchanges so seeing Master of Wine at 150.00 looks very wrong. 

Even his most recent run when 12th beaten 10 1/2 lengths in a race won by Incentivise was fairly eyecatching as he got himself in all sorts of trouble and too far back before just starting to run on late. That was over 1m4f and I think with another 1/2 mile he’ll be finishing really well and it wouldn’t surprise me if he ran a place here if they go fast up front which I think they will. 

Spanish Mission @ 11.50

Verry Elleegant @ 19.50

Master of Wine @ 150.00