In this blog we have a look at those horses coming from bumpers that we are looking forward to and that should be better for in Novice and handicap hurdles.

Bellshill: The first one is an obvious one, despite only finishing 10th in the Cheltenham Festival Champion Bumper he went on to finish 2nd in the Aintree Grade 2 Bumper before winning the Irish Grade 1 Champion Bumper at Punchestown when beating Disko, Modus and Charbel. Being by King’s Theatre he should improve for being sent hurdling and he could be very smart. King’s Theatre progeny have a 14.5% strike rate in bumpers compared to a very good 19.3% strike rate when sent Novice hurdling. He has already shown he has a lot of class and we are very much looking forward to when this one is sent hurdling. He is likely to be stepped up in distance and could be a Neptune Novices Hurdle.

William Henry: William Henry won 2 of his 3 NHF races last year with his only defeat coming on debut at Wincanton when only 4th. After finishing 4th on Boxing Day last year he didn’t return to the track until the 14th March when he appeared much more clued up and won his bumper at Kempton by 17 lengths. He then went to Ayr just over a month later where once again he was very impressive and powered clear of his rivals despite carrying a penalty. Once again William Henry is a King’s Theatre Gelding and therefore should be seen to even better effect when sent hurdling. He will stay further in time but it wouldn’t be a surprise if he was started off over the minimum 2 miles as he was quick enough to win a 2m NHF race at Kempton.

Stone Hard: Stone Hard won his first 2 NHF races last year including impressively at Gowran Park on his 2nd start in a race that had previously been won by Black Hercules. He then ran in the Cheltenham Bumper when after turning into the straight in a good position he faded quite disappointingly however being by Robin Des Champs he should really appreciate going over hurdles and is likely to stay further especially if he follows in the footsteps of Black Hercules. Stats suggest that running over hurdles should suit as Robin Des Champs progeny have a 19.6% strike rate in NHF races compared to a better 22.2% strike rate over hurdles. He’s one to look forward to.

Potters Point: Potters Point took 3 runs to get a win under his belt having finished 2nd on his first 2 runs behind fellow Gigginstown owned horses of Tombstone and Archive. Tombstone went on to win another NHF race in impressive fashion whilst Archive finished 5th in the Grade 2 NHF race at Aintree and has won over hurdles already. Potters Point is more interesting having won on his 3rd start in a NHF race when beating subsequent NHF race winner Don’t Touch It. Potters Point is also by Robin Des Champs like Stone Hard and there should be improvement when he is sent hurdling.

Champers On Ice: Champers On Ice has only had 1 NHF race to date when winning by a head at Punchestown but has been Point to Point racing in which he won his only completed start. With this in mind he has shown he can jump a fence so hurdles should be relatively easy for him. He won the race at Punchestown that had previously been won by the talented Fletchers Flyer and is another by Robin Des Champs so once again will appreciate both the switch to hurdles as well as a step up in distance. He can’t be underestimated this year.

Cloghala: Cloghala has won 1 of his 2 NHF races to date and this win came at Listowel over 2m4f beating Churchtown Champ. This was eyecatching considering he is by Kris Kin who generally have a poor 7.1% strike rate in NHF races. The form hasn’t been franked that well but this one is likely to be seen in Novice Hurdles soon. We however don’t feel he will show his best until he starts handicapping in hurdle races where Kris Kin progeny have a better 10.7% strike rate compared to a poor 5.1% strike in Novice and Graded hurdles.

Fagan: Fagan has won his last 2 NHF races at Perth and Ayr. His win at Ayr he was beating a similar decent sort in Meet The Legend and despite hanging left he showed his Point To Point experience was not lost on him when battling on to win. Fagan is a Fair Mix Gelding and probably won’t be seen to best effect until he goes chasing or is sent into handicap hurdle races. Fair Mix progeny have a poor 3.6% strike rate in NHF races so has probably done really well to win twice. Handicap hurdles see his strike rate increase to 10.3% strike rate whilst this increases even more to 12.1% when sent chasing.

Pylonthepressure: Pylonthepressure won his first 2 NHF races before finishing 5th at Punchestown behind Bellshill. He obviously is talented however these NHF races may well have suited and being by Darsi this is statistically backed up as they have a 8.1% strike rate in NHF races whilst they are down to 7.7% in Novice and Graded hurdles. Pylonthepressure may not be seen to his best until he is sent handicapping as they have a much improved 14.5% strike rate in handicap hurdle races. We will be keeping an eye on his first few runs over hurdles.

Air Horse One: Air Horse One won his first NHF race at Exeter before recently running in the NHF race at Cheltenham which Moon Racer won last year en route to winning the Champion Bumper at the festival. Air Horse One finished 2nd at Cheltenham under a penalty and is likely to be sent Novice hurdling soon. Air Horse One is by Mountain High and they have a similar 10.5% strike rate in Novice and Graded hurdles to their 10.1% strike rate in NHF races. He may again may not be seen to his best until he is sent handicapping over hurdles where they have a much better 18.9% strike rate.

Don’t Touch It: Don’t Touch It finished 2nd to one our others to watch in Potters Point before winning on his 4th attempt at Punchestown. He obviously has ability but having taken 4 attempts to win he may not quite be top class and will need to be aimed at handicap hurdle races before he starts to come into his own. Don’t Touch It is by Scorpion who have a 11.6% strike rate in NHF races however this decrease to just 8.1% when tackling Novice and Graded hurdles. This significantly increases to 17.4% strike rate however when tackling handicap hurdle races and he is one we will keep an eye on his first few runs over hurdles.

The Nipper: The Nipper has only had 1 run and 1 win to date under rules and that win was a very impressive 19 length victory at Bangor and is therefore a surprise when we suggest that handicaps will be better suited. The form hasn’t worked out that well and it would be no surprise being by Scorpion if this one found life more difficult when sent into Novice hurdles before again coming back into her own when running in handicaps over hurdles. She could surprise us all and be good enough for Novice and Graded events however.