John Smiths Cup

Ajman Bridge is TOP RATED after his good 2nd behind Arab Dawn at Royal Ascot when Adam Kirby lost his whip late on. This may have been the difference between winning and losing. He has a 5lb pull with Arab Dawn and even with improvement possible from Arab Dawn it would be a surprise if he managed to maintain the places however a factor that could keep them very closely matched is the ability to handle this course. Ajman Bridge should have found Ascot to his liking and it was probably evident by his very good performance however York isn’t meant to suit as much and this could be a big factor today.

Battalion runs for York specialist William Haggas and he hasn’t been seen since finishing a good 6th in the Winter Derby behind Tryster. His previous 3rd at Kempton to Prince Bishop now looks very good form with the victor going on to win the Dubai World Cup. Being very lightly raced still he could be open to further improvement and if he is fit enough to do himself justice then a big run could be expected of his mark of 106 particularly as this course should suit more than previous courses he has run at.

Mount Logan is Luca Cumani’s 2nd in the race and another who ran really well at Royal Ascot when a staying on 4th to Mahsoob. He was held up that day and didn’t get the clearest of runs and lost vital ground at a crucial stage and yet still only finished ½ length behind the winner. These extra 88 yards today should really suit and with Kevin Stott taking 3lb off he is 3lb lower for his close 4th at Royal Ascot. New Approach progeny also have a good record at this course and he should be there or thereabouts and isn’t guaranteed to be the Cumani 2nd string.

Arab Dawn won at Royal Ascot although he probably got everything to suit that day although he may get a similarly run race and with York more likely to suit that Ascot did he may well run another very big race under a penalty. George Baker rides this track well and he is sure to go close in what looks a very competitive handicap.

Fire Fighting hasn’t stopped running this season and has run some very good races including last time out when he was 3rd behind Mahsoob with Mount Logan just behind. Despite finishing just in front of Mount Logan he may not be able to maintain these positions as he did get a clear run and is now 3lb worse off with Mount Logan due to the jockey claim on him. He’s sure to still run well but may find one or two too good again.

First Flight is another with a great chance in this having finished a close 7th in the race at Royal Ascot won by Mahsoob. He too didn’t get a clear run that day and again ran on well after this. He comes back to York which should suit more than Ascot and the first time cheekpieces may be enough to see him get much closer to those who beat him last time. If they do help him ever so slightly he would go very close here.

A very tricky race to weigh up with all 5 mentioned above looking like they could win. Battalion looks overpriced at 20/1 and has to be selected and we think both Mount Logan and First Flight at 10/1 each should be selected as well and hope that the Wolferton was stronger than the Duke of Edinburgh Stakes.
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July Cup

Muhaarar was the winner of newly formed Commenwealth Cup at Royal Ascot and he proved that day that his win in the Greenham Stakes was no fluke. There were a few disappointments that day and the way the race panned out suited the strong finish of Muhaarar really well. Ascot probably suited him more than Newmarket will and in what looks a very close knit affair it may be worth taking the favourite on.

Muthmir was a very close 3rd in the King’s Stands despite running really keenly that day. He was narrowly beaten on the line and this was his first effort at Group 1 level and so should improve for that. He is a very talented horse and the step up to 6f isn’t guaranteed to suit however the race nature may mean it doesn’t feel as far and he should handle the course. Considering he went off 3/1 at Royal Ascot his current price of 12/1 looks too big for a close 3rd.

Brazen Beau was an unlucky 2nd at Royal Ascot as he came down the near side on his own and made most of the running. He was caught late on by the fast finishing Undrafted on the far side but comfortably beat the rest. Had he been able to race in with the rest of the group then he may well have been good enough to win. He is to be retired after this race and Godolphin will be looking to get a win to increase his stud fees.

Anthem Alexander was 3rd behind Muhaarar at Royal Ascot despite looking like the winner at the 1f pole as she was still hard on the bridle. She is still very lightly raced and her form is top class and she could still be improving. Eddie Lynam has a great record with his sprinters and with tactics apparently going to be changed today this could bring out the best of this talented Filly. She is also 3lb better off with Muhaarar due to the different conditions in this race and receives 9lb from the rest of her rivals. She looks very overpriced.

With the front 2 in the market looking very short in the nature of the race it may be worth taking both Muthmir at 12/1 and Anthem Alexander at 14/1 against these two. Of the 2 at the head of the market we expect Brazen Beau to fare best.
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