Newmarket 10th July 2015 Preview

Price Bailey EBF Stallios Fillies’s Handicap

Angel Vision ran a subsequently decent maiden effort last season as a 2 year old when 4th behind Fadhayyil (finished 2nd in Jersey Stakes at Royal Ascot since) before winning on her reappearance at Newmarket. Her first run in a handicap appeared disappointing when beaten 5 lengths by Sahaafy however the form has since worked out well with Sahaafy now rated 99, and 3rd having won only yesterday off a mark of 80 in very easy fashion. Angel Vision after being beaten then contested another handicap at Newmarket and this time was far too good for her rivals and although she has been raised 8lb for that win she could still be well ahead of her mark. Sir Michael Stoute, Ryan Moore and Oasis Dream progeny all go well at Newmarket July Course and having already won at this course she is proven to handle what can be a tricky course. She looks the one to beat.

Wordcraft is unbeaten in her 2 runs to date which include winning on debut at Newmarket but not on the July Course. She went on to run at Kempton in a decent looking handicap and after travelling ominously well she was rousted along and eventually got on top. The switch back to turf should suit and she should run a big race. She will need to improve again to beat Angel Vision and whilst she has the potential to do this, with their very little between the prices she is worth ignoring.
Bimbo was somewhat of a shock winner last time out at Newmarket when appearing outpaced early on and one of the first in trouble. When the favourite didn’t pick up it was left to Bimbo to finish best of all and to catch the favourite and won comfortably in the end. Whilst this was a very good win, she had had plenty of opportunities before then and it may be that the race just fell apart for her instead of some huge amount of improvement. She will need to prove this wasn’t a fluke to get involved.

Sulaalaat has been relatively consistent with 4 of her last 5 runs good enough to get involved here and this is a drop in class that could bring her close to the front of the pack. Efforts behind Tiggy Wiggy, Elite Gardens and Bossy Guest are decent runs and having dropped back down to a mark of 93 she might go closer than expected. Being a New Approach Filly she is very likely to be able to handle the course and with this in mind and with Paul Hanagan riding she should go well and looks overpriced.

Enlance has been vigorously campaigned this season with this being her 11th run of the season. She was very disappointing last time out however if you can forgive her that run then she would have to have a big chance. She has been campaigned between 7f although her last 3 runs before her disappointing effort last time out had resulted in wins and she should run another solid effort if her recent poor run hasn’t taken too much out of her. She also looks a shade overpriced.

Angel Vision looks the one to beat and has been priced accordingly at 7/2 but this is probably worth a bet. Sulaalaat and Enlace look overpriced but with the frequent running of Enlace possibly catching up on her she is ignore with Sulaalaat at 11/1 looking the decent e/w alternative to Angel Vision.
—————————————————————————————————————

Duchess of Cambridge Stakes

Easton Angel may well have been beaten by a very very good Filly in Acapulco and she was staying on all the way to line and comfortably beat rivals who reoppose here in Besharah, Rah Rah, Silk Bow and Kurland and it would be very unlikely any can turn the tables. Against Acapulco she may have also been on the wrong side as the pace appeared to be near side. She could be very smart still herself and the step up in distance should suit. Being a Dark Angel filly she should handle the course and we think she can serve it up the favourite and Royal Ascot winner Illuminate.

Illuminate is 2/2 including winner at Royal Ascot when she stayed on well to win over 6f and probably wants a step up in distance to 7f, 1m in time and could be a Guineas horse of next year. She wasn’t the quickest away that day and the race may have been run to suit as both Illuminate and the runner up Ashadihan were held up that day and the American horse ridden by Frankie set a blistering pace. She might not get such a strong pace today and this may mean she isn’t finishing as well as hoped. Zoffany had a great first season at Royal Ascot and will be looking to make an impression at Newmarket.

Besharah is in her own right a smart Filly, after her first 2 runs she was sent off just 6/1 for the Queen Mary where she was beaten by Acapulco and Easton Angel. She too was on the far side with Easton Angel and lost ground at a crucial moment before staying on well. She should run a decent race but with Zodiac progeny having a poor record at this course it is unlikely she can turn the tables on Easton Angel.

With the pace not likely to be as strong as when Illuminate won at Royal Ascot she may get caught for a bit of speed by Easton Angel who we think should confirm placings with all those she beat last time out. A small win bet at 7/4 looks a good play.
————————————————————————————————————————

Qipco Falmouth Stakes

Fintry has twice come over to Newmarket to contest the Kingdom of Bahrain Sun Chariot Stakes and the Charm Spirit Dahlia Stakes and has been beaten on both occasions however she has always been there or thereabouts. She has been in good form this season including winning at Chantilly last time out beating Avenir Certain who has been below her best so far this season. A horse who requires to be played late she has the assistance of Barzalona who rides this course well.

Lucida has run twice this season and has been very impressive in both without winning. A very good 2nd to Legatissimo was followed up by finishing 3rd at Royal Ascot behind Ervedya and Found in a race that looks like all 3 are very talented. Being a 3 year old she will be receipt of her 9lb allowance and could be very hard to beat. She is another that likes to be held up and with Arabian Queen in the race she is likely to get a reasonable pace to run. Again being a Shamardal Filly like Fintry she should handle the course.

Integral isn’t a guaranteed runner as the very quick ground conditions wouldn’t suit her and she has so far been disappointing. If she does run however and is back to her best then she should run a very big race. She has some very smart form at both Newmarket courses with her form figures reading 2211 which includes winning this race last year when she quickened up really nicely with about 2 furlongs to go, this was however on soft ground although she has also won on Good to Firm. Despite some lacklustre efforts so far this season she is still only a 9/2 price and this probably isn’t worth chancing that she is both back to her best and that the ground is suitable for her.

Avenir Certain looked a Filly with huge potential last year and she progressed nicely up to running in the Arc where she was very disappointing. She has taken a while to come back to her best this year although did run better when 2nd to Fintry last time out although again despite not really setting the world alight this season she hasn’t been priced that attractively at just 4/1. All of her best form has also come on softer ground and this she isn’t likely to get tomorrow.

Arabian Queen was only able to finish 5th last time out at Ascot when beaten by Lucida although she wasn’t beaten far. That said she was a bit keen that day and if she is able to settle a bit better tomorrow and preserve her energy better then she may not come back to her field as quickly as those expect. With 3 winners already at Newmarket making all she may have been overlooked and could be a big price.

If they go quick enough then you would expect Lucida is probably the best of those who like to be held up. 11/4 looks an ok price. Arabian Queen, the other 3 year old may well get an easy lead and the others may well be caught napping and she could spring a surprise at 20/1