Dubai Duty Free Irish Derby

The Irish Derby has been won 9 times in the last 10 years by Aiden O’Brien.

Jack Hobbs finished 2nd in the English Derby behind Golden Horn and ran really well that day. He sat in about 5th for most of the race before making his move on the outside with a couple of furlongs to go, he was followed very quickly by Golden Horn who sprinted past. Jack Hobbs didn’t stop late on and was running all the way to the line. This followed on to finishing 2nd in the Dante again behind Golden Horn and so his form stacks up. Being a Halling Colt he is far exceeding any ability shown half-brothers and half-sisters before and this is a credit to John Gosden and his team. Halling Progeny don’t have a great record in these types of races and despite his form looking very strong he is probably worth taking on.

Qualify was a shock winner of the Oaks when getting up late to deny Ryan Moore aboard Legatissimo with connections saying the step up in distance really suited her and she gets a wildcard supplementary entry into this race which connections have decided to take up. She will be in receipt of her 3lb Fillies allowance and this should help her however whether the Oaks was anywhere near as strong as the Derby is unlikely. Colm O’Donoghue retains the ride however you would imagine if she was as good as her stable counterparts then Ryan Moore or Joseph O’Brien would have opted to ride her. Fastnet Rock progeny go reasonably well at the course but generally don’t progress into the higher class horses that Galileo progeny do.

Highland Reel has been chosen by Ryan Moore who has deserted Giovanni Canaletto who finished 4th in the English Derby with Ryan riding. Highland Reel was regarded as a Classic contender when winning a maiden at Gowran before winning a Group 3 event at Goodwood in really good style which had been won in the past by some talented horses including Toormore, Olympic Glory, Rio De La Plata, Sir Percy and Shamardal. He was somewhat disappointing on his return when only 6th in the French 2000 Guineas before stepping up on this considerably when finishing 2nd in the French Derby over 1m2f. The step up to 1m4f should suit this Galileo Colt and they have a very good record at Curragh (35/202 in recent years). It’s probable that Aiden O’Brien will ask Kilimanjaro to make the running and prevent it from being a falsely run race.

Giovanni Canaletto finished 4th in the English Derby having finished 2nd to Curvy at Curragh and she has since won a Group 2 at Royal Ascot. Giovanni Canaletto has slightly less stamina on the dam side to Highland Reel and if it comes down to stamina he may be just fading late on. He looks to have a lot to do to turn around the form with Jack Hobbs regardless of the likely preference to this track over Jack Hobbs. Ryan Moore has also decided against riding this one.

Jack Hobbs is clearly the one to beat however with the step up in distance likely to suit Highland Reel as well as Ryan Moore choosing to ride this one, you would imagine this should push Jack Hobbs and if you can get an e/w price about him he is probably the bet in the race.