Pontefract 15:40 Totepool Pontefract Castle Stakes

After a great Royal Ascot and 30 points profit from our 5 blog posts we are going to keep these going.

Connecticut was highly progressive last year and looks a horse that can continue his rise through the ranks this year. After an eyecatching debut at Newmarket in a good maiden on Fielden Stakes day he followed up on his 2nd start in a maiden when winning at Newbury in a maiden featuring horses who have shown plenty since including Astronereus (3rd off 100 at Royal Ascot), Rembrandt Van Rijn (easy winner off 90) and Moohaarib (now rated 115). After 2 subsequent wins he was stepped up in distance for the Melrose where he ran really well to finish 3rd trying to give 10lb to Adventure Seeker (rated 89 that day and went up to 100) and Vent De Force (rated 85 that day, now rated 109). He did run what can only be a disappointing race on his final start when only 9th on his final start however he gave at least 10lb to those who finished in front which is quite a big ask for 3 year olds. Running in a Listed race on his return he runs off level weights with only Nancy from Nairobi getting a Fillies allowances however she looks like she has a bit to find. Coming back as a 4 year old and still as a colt must mean connections feel he could be a Group winner of the future and a career as a Stud could still await. He’ll need to win here to have any chance of being a successful stud of the future. New Approach progeny generally run well and both Luca Cumani and Adam Kirby have a very good record here. He normally bounces out and sits prominently/leads and drawn in 1 he may well go on and dictate which is a tactic that works well at Pontefract.

Gatewood runs for Mr Strawbridge and John Gosden who won this race last year with Freedom’s Light and Gatewood has some smart form to his name with 3 Listed events and 1 Group 3 to his name however all of these have come with a bit of cut in the ground. He is likely to be held up and this may not suit at Pontefract and with the rattling fast conditions those that are the front may not come back quick enough. Joe Fanning also doesn’t have a great record here and he may get his timing wrong. Whilst the way the race is run may not suit, the course shouldn’t be a problem as Galileo progeny have a good record here. He should still be good enough for at least 3rd and if they do go too fast at the front then he will be the one to pick up the pieces.

Red Galileo looks like being the 3rd of 5 that have a real chance in this race with both Only Orsenfoolsies and Nancy from Nairobi looking a bit out of their depth. Red Galileo has some good form to his name although has always appeared to come up short in Listed or Group races. He finished 2nd 2 runs ago in a Listed race albeit comfortably beaten by the improving Agent Murphy who has form tied in with Connecticut. Ed Dunlop will be buoyed by his Gold Cup with Trip to Paris and does have a good record at this course as does Graham Lee who gets the ride. Dubawi have a fantastic record here and it’s likely he will try and jump out from his poor draw and get in just behind the leader which we believe will be Onlyorsenfoolsies. If he can keep Connecticut boxed in then he looks the biggest danger to Top Rated however with Adam riding this track so well, he is unlikely to forfeit his good draw position.

In what could be a tactical affair the positive jockey stats of Adam Kirby on Connecticut will hopefully mean he is given a good ride and with progression likely as a 4 year old we think he should win here before going on to bigger and better things. A 7/4 price means a win bet is in order.