The Derby looks the weaker of the 2 events however the form of the favourite has been well franked especially with Peacock winning at the weekend who Golden Horn had previously beaten at Newmarket.

Golden Horn was made a short priced favourite after winning the Dante in impressive fashion when ridden by William Buick which followed up his victory earlier at Newmarket when ridden by Frankie Dettori. The Dante was run at a good pace with Lord Ben Stack taking them along and with a few taking a keen hold, William Buick was able to settle Golden Horn towards the back of the field before moving up with 3 furlongs to go. The front 3 all ran encouraging races with Elm Park probably needing the run and Jack Hobbs clearly still running green but the neat and tidy and fit Golden Horn was able to quicken past both of these late on. Being a Cape Cross colt means there should be more to come and the step up in distance should suit (15% strike rate at 1m2f and 16% strike rate at 1m4f). He is the rightful favourite but he looks a bit short to be really lumping on.

Zawraq is 2nd in the market and he looks to be the chief Irish hope after many of their hopefuls particularly for Aiden O’Brien disappointing in trials including John F Kennedy, Ol Man River and Giovanni Canaletto. Having won on debut when beating the highly regarded Sir Isaac Newton, he returned this season in an Irish 2000 Guineas trial where despite the lack of a recent run he travelled really well and comfortably beat his rivals. Since then this form has been really well franked with the runner up Endless Drama since finishing 2nd to Tombelaine in a Listed event and 2nd to Gleneagles in the Irish 2000 Guineas. Zawraq readily beat Endless Drama and so this form looks very strong. Despite winning easily, the step up in distance isn’t 100% certain to suit Sharmadal progeny dropping from 18% for 1m to 14% for 1m4f however he certainly couldn’t be dismissed just because of this. Another concerning statistic would be the lack of future success for winners, despite the race taking place since 1986, the winner has never gone on to win the English Derby winner.

Elm Park won the Racing Post trophy as a 2 year old before making an eyecatching reappearance asa 3 year old in the Dante. Despite not having had run which both Jack Hobbs and Golden Horn had, he travelled well and for a few moments when he hit the front it looked like he may be very hard to catch and pass however his lack of fitness showed late on when he got tired, however he only finished 6 lengths behind the winner. With fitness under his belt and the step up in distance almost guaranteed to suit (4% strike rate at 1m2, 12% strike rate at 1m4) he should get much closer to both Jack Hobbs and Golden Horn.

Jack Hobbs finished 2nd in the Dante and although it is unlikely, if the Dante was not the strongest trial then the Derby could be won by a big priced runner. Jack Hobbs started this season as a handicapper and after winning a class 3 handicap by 12 lengths on the bridle, he was very quickly stepped up in class to the Dante. After coming off the bridle early into the straight he responded well before hanging under pressure and ducking in behind his rivals. He is obviously very talented but his hanging would have to be a concern especially at Epsom. Halling progeny have a better record at Epsom (12.2% strike rate) than York (7.7% strike rate) so it may be that he handles this course better and if so then he would definitely get closer to Golden Horn and looks overpriced. The further they go the better with Jack Hobbs (12% strike rate for Halling Progeny at 1m2f, 13% strike rate at 1m4f and 15% strike rate at 1m6f) and so should be finishing his race off well at Epsom.

Hans Holbein was only 2nd on his return this season and was well beaten before improving on this when beating the very nicely bred Valac at Leopardstown. After a setback for Giovanni Canaletto, Hans Holbein was rerouted to Chester where he made all to win the Chester Vase beating subsequent winner Storm The Stars. Despite making all and winning well enough it’s not clear whether the step up in distance will suit (15% strike rate at 1m2f and only 12% strike rate at 1m4f) although he should be able to handle the course as Chester was no problem for him. Since 2002 the winner of the Chester has on numerous occasions ran well in the subsequent Derby without troubling the judge. Treasure Beach with a head 2nd and Ruler of World who won are the only 2 the place in the race. Hans Holbein in the Derby seems to have come about due to some poor performances from other Aiden O’Brien colts and he may just lacking that touch of class required to win this race.

Giovanni Canaletto was well fancied for the Derby before his prep race in the Chester Vase was abandoned after he reportedly suffered a set back. His eyecatching performance when winning at Leopardstown in very impressive fashion was what made him well fancied for the Derby but he was somewhat disappointing on his return when only 2nd , albeit only a neck behind Curvy at Curragh. The winner that day did have fitness on her side and she was getting 3lb however whether this is Derby form is debatable. The step up to 1m4f should however suit being a Galileo and is related to previous winners including New Approach, Australia and Ruler of The World so if you can expect improvement from his first of the run season and he can have his high head carriage sorted out then he may not be completely out of this.