I can never understand some trainers plans

Looking at some of the recent handicap marks and some of the upcoming fixtures, there are some that stand out so clearly. Let’s have a look at one of these!

Rouge Vif

Rouge Vif got dropped 5lb over hurdles to 130 and 4lb to 140 over fences after disappointing over hurdles at Cheltenham recently.

Target:

Well handicapped?

Is Rouge Vif well handicapped over fences even though he’s higher rated over fences than hurdles? Absolutely. He’s run in 2 Handicap chases in his career, he was going to finish 2nd off 149 when falling at the last over 2 1/2 mile and he won over 2m off 156 in impressive style.

His handicap mark therefore of 140 is a mark he should be able to win off.

Course Form?

He’s had one run at Warwick over 2m over fences. He won by 7 lengths beating Nube Negra off level weights. That’s graded form (it was in a Grade 2) and to be potentially running in a handicap off 140 he would surely go very close.

Distance Form?

He was tried over 2m4f on his final start for Paul Nicholls in May of 2022 and was going to finish 2nd but for most of his career he’s been campaigned over 2m and in Grade 1 and Grade 2 company. He’s not good enough for these but back in a handicap he should have the speed to get involved.

Hurdles or Fences?

It’s not always fair to compare a horses hurdle and chase form as some horses are ‘always going to be better over fences’ and don’t really spend much of their career over hurdles. This can be applied to Rouge Vif who after finishing 3rd over hurdles in a Grade 1 at Aintree (beaten 8 1/2 lengths) he was sent over fences the following season. The fact he has won a Grade 2 AND a handicap over fences off a mark of 156 in relative ease does arguably suggest over fences he is very good.

Race make up?

When winning the Grade 2 Novice Chase at Warwick and winning the handicap at Cheltenham off 156, he tracked the leader that day and with this race having had field sizes of 4, 6, 6, 6, 6, 6, in the last 5 years, I would imagine the field size is going to be small again and Rouge Vif should be able to easily sit in 2nd or 3rd at worst.