A drop of 4lb was surely an over-reaction from the BHA Handicapper!

8 Runners from Royal Ascot that I think were wrongly dropped in the handicap. We also know about ‘ricks’ from the bookies, this blog looks for those ‘ricks’ from the BHA handicapper

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Scarlet Dragon finished 6th in the Duke of Edinburgh Stakes at Ascot after hitting a low of 4.0 in the run. This came when Hollie made a fast forward move from the back of the field coming into the final bend and was in front by the time they came off the final bend. You could certainly argue that she made her effort too soon and although he dropped away to 6th, I think he was beaten by the right horses. 4 of the 5 were less than 10/1 whilst the runner up was Raymond Tusk who has been highlighted in a previous blog. I don’t think this was a bad effort from Scarlet Dragon and maybe if Hollie had delayed her challenge they may have finished closer. He finished a good 7th in the Old Newton Cup last year off a mark of 104 and you would imagine this would be the plan again off a 4lb lower mark.

Sextant finished a never nearer 8th in the Copper Horse Handicap Stakes at Royal Ascot and the handicapper has dropped him 1lb for that effort. This was over 1m6f and that was arguably too far and he was ridden to try and get the trip. The last time he ran in a handicap was 12 runs before that over 1m3f at Ascot when making all the running to win nicely off a mark of 98. Now back down to a mark of 101, I would be very interested if they drop him back in trip and revert to more positive tactics. A return to Ascot on Friday 23rd July would surely be a good idea and they can go forward on him.

Mancini has run since but that came off the same mark as his Royal Ascot run and to be fair it wasn’t bad. He finished 9th in the Northumberland Plate but was only beaten 2 lengths and wasn’t able to really get into the right position. I expect to see him given a more prominent ride next time back on the turf. His effort at Royal Ascot was a good one when finishing 14th of 19 as he clearly didn’t stay the trip again. Turning into the straight he moved to the front and looked like he was going to play a big part in the finish but got tired late on and faded away. I think we could see him at York next time out over 2m which would be ideal.

Raising Sand finished 6th in the Buckingham Palace Stakes and was the first past the post over on the far side. He won the Moet and Chandon International Stakes in 2019 off a mark of 103 and surely that’s where we see him next off a mark of 100. His effort at Ascot also came on Good To Firm going which he has never finished in the first 4 when running on so this performance can arguably be upgraded further. If he gets any rain before the race at Ascot in late July then you would be disappointed if he didn’t go close.

Escobar has now dropped 4lb since returning this season with a great run when 3rd in the Victoria Cup and I think his drop of 3lb for his effort at Royal Ascot is very kind. Drawn in 14 , Danny decided he wanted to come down the near side and dropped in at the back of the near side group and I assume felt he had plenty of horse under him as he drew out towards the centre of the track when trying to make an effort instead of running into the back of the big group. This move didn’t work and he ended up running down the centre of the track which had been the slower part of the track all week. This was a disappointing effort but he has some great form at Ascot and I am more than happy to write this effort off. I imagine he will be campaigned with the autumn targets in mind now such as the Cunard Handicap (finished 4th in 2019), Bet365 Challenge Cup (finished 3rd in 2019) and Balmoral Handicap (won in 2019 beating Lord North) as his main objectives.

Sam Cooke was sent off just 11/2 for the Duke of Edinburgh Stakes and disappointed finishing a well beaten 12th of 14. The handicapper dropped him a whopping 4lb for that effort. After jumping out he got caught out wide and then on the first bend he got lit up and pulled away any chance he had. Travelling furthest of all he came into the straight ridiculously wide and came down the centre of the track which as mentioned previously had been the slowest part of the track all week. He never picked up and his effort was disappointing. Looking at his form he also disappointed in the November handicap on soft ground and he arguably wants better going so to see him dropped 4lb for a run that everything was and went against him is very eyecatching. He finished 5th last year in the Bet365 Trophy at Newmarket having not run for 428 days off a mark of 92 and could return this year fitter and off a mark of 90.

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