Saturday at Ascot & Haydock

I like 4 for tomorrow at Ascot & Haydock.

Ascot 12:55 We had Remastered last time out at Aintree win for us at 8/1 and finishing strongly into 2nd was Milan Bridge who was sent off favourite that day. He’s clearly improving and the switch to fences should bring out more improvement. As mentioned in our earlier video this week for Premium/Pro Members, we like horses that are going straight into handicaps over fences suggesting the trainer feels they have a workable mark. Quel Destin also for Paul Nicholls is likely to need the run having not raced for 658 days and we can’t be sure the 3m trip will suit him and he may find both cause him to get tired late on. Arizona Cardinal won a much easier race last time out and none of those looked as progressive as Milan Bridge or had the back form of Quel Destin and I think he may find these are too classy for him here. The other 2 in this race Ememenemynemo and One For You shouldn’t be good enough to challenge those at the front.

Haydock 2:25 This looks a good race with Complete Unknown, Good Risk At All and Run For Oscar & Might I all looking to have big chances. Complete Unknown won the Grade 3 Handicap at Sandown on soft ground off a mark of 126 before finishing 2nd in a Listed hurdle at Perth behind Mahler Mission. He returns to handicaps here off 135 and it’s not clear if the 3m really suited him last time out. Good Risk At All won a decent handicap hurdle at Ascot off a mark of 127 before finishing 6th in a Grade 1 at Aintree over 2 1/2 mile. He won recently over 2 1/2 mile at Carlisle beating Wholestone and is now rated 143. Is beating an 11 year old Wholestone form good enough to challenge here? Run For Oscar won the Cesarewitch in October in impressively style but that came off a mark of 90 which suggested he was well handicapped on the flat. I like to add about 40 to the flat marks and that would suggest his 147 mark is certainly high enough. He was winning a couple of very competitive handicaps in August and September 2021 but these came off handicap marks of 128 and 133. He was comfortably beaten in a Grade 2 event at Wetherby when tried over 3m for the first time. My selection in this race is Might I who’s 2nd to Constitution Hill (by 14 lengths), 3rd to Jonbon (beaten 4 3/4 lengths) and 2nd to Three Stripe Life (beaten 4 3/4 lengths and in front of Good Risk At All) looks very good form. He’s clearly a Graded horse and yet he’s been allowed to take his chance in a handicap on his return and off just 142, I think he can go very close if he stays the 3m trip. If we look purely at his form, his 2nd’s in Grade 1 events reads better than Complete Unknown (beaten in a Listed), better than Run For Oscar (well beaten in Grade 2) and better than Good Risk At All (finished behind Might I at Aintree).

Ascot 3:15 Fair play to Alan King for running Edwardstone in the Handicap at Ascot. A winner of 2 Grade 2 events and 2 Grade 1 events last season including the Arkle, he maybe had 1 too many runs last season when finishing 2nd in the Grade 1 at Aintree. Alan King won the Northumberland Plate with Trueshan earlier this year on the flat with a horse who was giving away lumps of weight and slowly but surely more and more trainers are targeting these feature handicaps and good prize money with classy horses that have graded form. On just his 2nd season over fences you could think he may vulnerable to those experienced chasers but he had a 7 races last season over fences so his experience over fences shouldn’t be an issue. Before Midnight looked to need the run last time out whilst Thyme White was maybe more ready for that race and both should go well here but are they good enough to challenge a proper Grade 1 horse even getting the weight. Third Time Lucki finished behind Edwardstone 3 times last season at Sandown, Warwick and then Aintree when he was 3rd with Edwardstone in 2nd. Even getting the 10lb, I think Edwardstone can beat him again.

Haydock 3:35 I am a big fan of the Bet365 Gold Cup form and really like Cap Du Nord, Enrilo, Kitty’s Light this season when they get their conditions. Hewick was the winner that day and he’s obviously gone on to win a Galway Plate and the American Grand National and probably would have won the Kerry National as well had he jumped the last. He was clearly ridiculously well handicapped that day and for Musical Slave to finish 2nd and in front Kitty’s Light and well clear of the rest, I think this was a very good performance. He runs off 137 (was 7lb well in at Sandown) but I really think the winner Hewick (was clearly more than that ahead of his mark) and Kitty’s Light is similarly well ahead of his mark when running in a race that suits. Looking at whether Musical Slave will be ready to go first time out, last year he finished 3rd (beaten just 2 lengths) to Win My Wings and Run To Milan. Win My Wings was winning off 129 (ended season rated 154) whilst Run To Milan won next time out beating Belami Des Pictons. Having won impressively over CD in April, you would hope Musical Slave is not here for a fitness run with the Welsh National in mind.

Not a huge amount of originality in the above but I think they are all going to go very close. Edwardstone and Might I are both in handicaps worth winning whilst Milan Bridge off 126 would need to be winning to get himself up the ratings and into something more lucrative. Musical Slave is the only one I have slight doubts about as the Welsh National looks ideal but hopefully he can guarantee his place by winning this race at Haydock.

Other horses that caught my eye tomorrow:

12:30 Punchestown – Looking forward to seeing Kilcruit over fences. Interesting he starts at 2m3f. Journey With Me another with some smart form but might not quite have enough to beat Kilcruit.

12:48 Huntingdon – Panic Attack goes over fences in a good looking Mares Novice chase. I thought she travelled well again over 3m last time out but may doesn’t quite get home. The drop in trip should suit.

13:15 Haydock – Benson will enjoy the conditions and is arguably one of the best handicapped horses on the day. It’s all about whether Bruce can keep him interested. If he’s not too far behind turning into the straight, he should finish strongly. Having finished 2nd last time out, has Sandy Thomson found the key to him?

13:50 Haydock – Hitman is a horse I’m a huge fan of, if (likely) he runs here then this is a nice schooling session for him but he’s priced accordingly.

14:40 Ascot – Constitution Hill , PLEASE run. He wins whatever the going and I really think will be regarded as well as Hurricane Fly, Faugheen etc at the end of THIS season!

15:00 Haydock – If Frodon is allowed to go forward and jump for fun, I really think he can beat the rest and finish 2nd behind A Plus Tard

15:50 Ascot – Immortal could be one of just 2 runners for Henderson at Ascot with the other being Constitution Hill. I honestly think this is significant and he wouldn’t be taking a slow horse with CH to Ascot.

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