Handicap mark changes!
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The handicap mark changes (mainly from York!)
Pink Crystal (+3 to 87)
Aim: Be Friendly Handicap
Aim: First To Last Handicap
If Pink Crystal runs in another handicap, she takes all the beating as she got a terrible run at York and would have won (and beat my selection Designer) in good style. A 3lb rise is fair considering she didn’t win but if she did get a clear run I can see her winning comfortably and getting a 10lb+ rise. I have a feeling she’s going to be given a try in a Listed race next time (as mentioned here: YORK EYECATCHERS) BUT if she’s given another run in a handicap then I hope she goes to Haydock (William Haggas has a great record at the track). If she wins the first race, she could well come back for the 2nd above!
Frankenstella (+2 to 89)
Aim: Cesarewitch
If you took Alfred Boucher of the Stayers Handicap at York, I honestly believe Frankestella wins on the bridle as she effortlessly pulled away from the rest before getting into a battle with Alfred Boucher. If she didn’t have any challenge, you can imagine the jockey doesn’t ask for as much as effort and she wins without getting tired. Alfred Boucher obviously went on to 2nd in the Ebor (beaten on the line) and that form looks strong. Off just 89 I think she can certainly win a similar race. Connections may feel she got tired late on and maybe drop her back in trip but personally I don’t think that’s needed. There is the 1m6f Handicap at Doncaster over the St Leger trip she could turn up in but I hope she’s saved for the Cesarewitch at Newmarket over 2m2f. Let’s take on the NH lads!
Dare To Hope (-1 to 87)
Aim: EBF Nursery Handicap
Dare To Hope ran well for 4th at York in a Sales race having finished 2nd behind a well handicapped sort in a Nursery. I was very surprised to see him dropped 1lb for this effort at York and would be very keen on him when he goes back to a Nursery. There are no real lucrative nurseries scheduled which is disappointing but think Richard Fahey may go to Ayr with him and try and win a race for the 3rd consecutive year!
Moktasaab (-1 to 95)
Aim: Dubai Duty Free Handicap
Moktasaab finished 3rd at Goodwood over just shy of 1m2f before stepping up at York to just shy 1m4f and being ridden as a horse who may not stay the trip and didn’t get the clearest of runs on a couple of occasions and had to weave around but stayed on quite well for a never nearer 7th. I think he’s versatile and could stick over this trip or drop in trip again and I think that might be the plan for a lucrative race at Newbury. His form at Newbury reads 41 with his 4th coming over 1m4f which arguably was too far whilst his win came over 1m2f which is the trip of the suggested race. If he runs at Newbury, I would confident of a big run.
Ouzo (-1 to 93)
Aim: Racing TV Handicap
Aim: Balmoral Handicap
Ouzo again ran a consistent race at York finishing 5th (just 1 poor race in his last 5 when we said to ignore it) and was dropped 1lb for this effort. He’s clearly around the right mark and the handicapper is giving him a chance to show he just needs 1 or 2lb drop to win a race like this. Looking at his form he’s arguably better at 1m than 7f but he has some good form at 7f and at Newmarket so the above race could be ideal. His form at Newmarket reads 55142 but he hasn’t returned to Newmarket since June 2020 when he was beaten a neck by Bell Rock when ridden by Ryan Moore. Bell Rock went on to be rated 11lb higher suggesting the form was good and I would really like to see Ouzo return to Newmarket with the aim of winning and getting into the Balmoral Handicap at Ascot just under a month later.
Regional (-1 to 102)
Aim: Cazoo Handicap Stakes
Regional had looked a progressive horse before his disappointing run at York, however this came under a different ride tactically to his previous efforts and I would be totally crossing this off and giving him another chance next time and hope his jockey reverts to the hold up tactics that have seen him running well at Doncaster and Goodwood. When he’s been held up over 6f, he’s been finishing really strongly so an extra 111y as he would get at Doncaster could well be the decisive factor between running well again and actually hitting the front and winning. He’s been to Doncaster once before and finished a short head 2nd.
Revich (-1 to 95)
Aim: Virgin Bet Handicap
Revich was one of only a couple that didn’t frank the Golden Mile form from Goodwood and this was largely due to being drawn wide and making his effort wide down the straight. With things not going to plan, it was kind of the handicapper to drop him 1lb for that effort. His next race looks obvious and he would surely have a great chance of winning it again having won it last year off a mark of 93. The runner has since been sold to race in USA and has already won 3 races and finished 2nd once suggesting the form was strong so Revich clearly handles the track.
X J Rascal (-1 to 81)
X J Rascal has dropped 1lb on collateral form which is kind. He was frustratingly a NR at York and I understand he and his horsebox driver are ok (fingers crossed for the horse box driver who was also involved in an accident this weekend). There’s no lucrative nurseries as mentioned above but I think this horse can win a couple and I’ll be keep a close eye out for him.
Amtiyaz (-2 to 98)
Amtiyaz made his return from 406 days off the track and was backed and was sent off just 9/1. This trip however was too short for Amtiyaz who had been over this trip since his 2nd run of his career back in September 2020. He had been running over 1m6f – 2m before his lay off and that’s surely where they go back to next time and the handicapper dropping the horse 2lb will only help as well. I’m not sure where they will go next but fully expect to see a better run next time when back up in trip.
Bond Chairman (-2 to 97)
Aim: Windsor & Eton Sea Cadets Handicap
Bond Chairman ran his first poor race in his last 5 when finishing 8th at York having finished 4th, 2nd and 4th on his previous 3 starts at Ascot and 4th at York back in October 2021. The handicapper had been raising him up the handicap from a mark of 94 to 100 before dropping him 1lb for his most recent at Ascot and he’s dropped him another 2lb for this effort at York. He’s only 2lb higher than when finishing a short head 2nd to Mountain Peak at Ascot and you would imagine a return to Ascot could well be on the cards. The race I’ve highlighted would also be against inferior opposition and you would hope he can find his way into the winners enclosure here.
Isla Kai (-2 to 94)
Aim: Racing TV Handicap
Isla Kai was once again ridden forward and once again didn’t get home. I really don’t understand the tactics being employed time and time again and they are clearly not working. Either be more patient over 1m or drop back in trip to 7f and that’s what I’m hoping they might do next time. Isla Kai has now dropped from a mark of 100 to 94 since May. If he’s dropped in trip and is allowed to go forward and make the running, they may find he doesn’t come back to the rest of the field like he is over 1m.
Sunday Sovereign (-2 to 92)
Aim: Catterick Dash Handicap
Sunday Sovereign for me didn’t run as badly as it looked last time out at York over 5f when finishing 11th as he never really got a clear run and could never get going until the race was over. I think with a clear run he would have finished much closer and the fact the handicapper has dropped him 2lb for this run could be very useful next time out if he does get a clear run. Last season he stepped up to 6f for the Ayr Gold Cup and finished 24th and has since been dropped back to 5f and I don’t think they will try it again. The obvious race for him would be the Catterick Dash that he finished 2nd in last year off 98, 6lb lower this year, you would be hopeful he can go very close again.
Chichester (-3 to 94)
Aim: Kilkerran Cup
Chichester was slowly away at York and held up right near the back of the field before starting to make headway when they were in the straight and he looked like he was going to be a big player when he closed to just behind Soto Sizzler, Cockalorum & Piecederesistance but that was over the far side of the track which is generally the slower part of the track and it was no surprise to see all 4 of these fade late on. I was however taken with how Chichester travelled through most of this race. Having dropped 3lb for this run, he’s surely going to go back to Ayr for the Kilkerran Cup which he won last year. Although he won it off a mark of 88 (6lb lower) he did win by 6 1/2 lengths and was raised to a whopping 100 after that. If he returns in the same form, you would hope he can go close off 94.
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