Friday 25th and Saturday 26th Analysis

Friday 25th November

Newbury 2:30

I’m a big fan of Beakstown here who won for us at Ayr last season over his optimum 2 1/2 mile trip. He ended the season with a good 3rd at Sandown when not beaten far but arguably ran his career best last time out on his seasonal return at Aintree. He finished 4th behind former Grade 1 winner Riders Onthe Storm with subsequent easy Haydock winner Hitman in 2nd and subsequent Paddy Power Gold Cup Handicap Chase winner Ga Law back in 3rd. Beakstown was just 1 3/4 length behind Ga Law. Ga Law won off the same mark on his next start and has now been raised 6lb for that win whilst Beakstown was strangely dropped 2lb for his close 4th place and he looks very well handicapped. I would be very disappointed if he doesn’t go very close here.

Beakstown @ 11/4

Newbury 3:40

If you follow me and my selections, it will come as no surprise as to who I like here. Padleyourowncanoe is exceptionally well handicapped running off just 123 over hurdles and has some good form to his name. He fell early on at Cheltenham when sent off 7/2 after being highlighted as a horse that I felt was too big at 6/1. He caused Shearer to unseat last time out (Shearer was sent off the 2/1 favourite) and with Shearer in the race again, hopefully we can get a similar price about Padleyourowncanoe as the market is focused on the unexposed and improving horse.

Padleyourowncanoe @ 4/1

Friday 25th November – Update (recorded and posted on 24/11/22)

Saturday 26th November

Newbury 1:20

Mister Coffey is also entered in the Grade 2 on the card (12:45) but Nicky Henderson has been talking about this race with Mister Coffey and how much he would like to win this race. Mister Coffey is in my National Hunt Horses To Follow for this season and I’m convinced he is going to be a 150+ horse (currently rated 140). Mister Coffey has run here three times, winning an Introductory hurdle beating Shakem Up’Arry and On To Victory, finishing a never nearer 7th in a Betfair Hurdle and then 3rd of 5 here over fences behind Not Available and Solo over 2m last season. This 2m trip has always looked on the short side and he looked much more at home over 2 1/2 mile before trying 3m2f in the Kim Muir where he finished a close 2nd (should have won – I think Sam was too confident). He disappointed over the National fences in the Topham when not getting into a rhythm but for me that just means he’s stayed well handicapped. This 2m6f trip looks ideal and I think he will take all the beating here. Others of note in this race are Cap Du NordKitty’s Light but both surely have more lucrative targets and Zanza (trip should suit but surely he’s not as good as Mister Coffey).

Mister Coffey @ 7/1

Newbury 3:40

Gunsight Ridge also made my National Hunt Horses To Follow and I suggested he was a 140+ horse. He’s already won this season but is still only rated 137 (raised 4lb for his recent win) so I would be hopeful he can go close again. He had a wind op which may have helped him finish his race off last time out but that was also his first run for 212 days so I’m hoping he will also come on for the run and be even stronger and fitter this time. He has been to Newbury before when he finished 2nd to Gowel Road. Both of them have improved for that run as they were rated 120 (Gunsight Ridge) and 122 (Gowel Road) that day. They are now rated 137 (Gunsight Ridge) and 143 (Gowel Road). I’m hoping for a couple of big runs from my National Hunt Horses To Follow blog therefore on Saturday!

Gunsight Ridge @ 4/1

Other races to note

Saturday

Newbury 12:45 

Thyme Hill should take all the beating here and the Official Ratings reflect this. McFabulous is next in on the OR but I don’t think he will see out the 3m trip or at least not as well as Thyme Hill.

Newbury 1:55

Those at the head of the market are the ones I would be focusing on. There’s a few 4 year olds in this race but I feel this is too early in their career to be beating the unexposed 5, 6 and 7 year olds.

Newbury 2:30

This race is arguably the handicap hurdle that I think works out best of all throughout the season. I think this could be the case again here. Djelo could make a quick reappearance after winning comfortably at Exeter just a few days ago. The Nicky Henderson pair of Theatre Glory and First Street are surely going to be kept apart so it’s not clear who will be running here. Boombawn, Teddy Blue are both interesting as well. I like Yorksea as well off his handicap mark but would prefer to see him against horses his own age at this stage of his career.

Newbury 3:05 

Remastered was going well when falling 4 out off a 4lb higher mark and his return this season over hurdles was very good. I think he’s the one to beat here.

Remastered @ 6/1

Newcastle 2:10

I genuinely think Constitution Hill can win this without coming out of 2nd gear. Epatante’s ‘wins’ in this race haven’t been that strong. She beat Sceau Royal and dead-heated with Not So Sleepy in this race last year.

Newcastle 3:25

L’Homme Presse could run here and would have to carry top weight and I think that would really help Aye Right who I think would go very close here. He won this race last year and that was his last run in a handicap. That did come off a 6lb lower mark but the runner up that day Good Boy Bobby went on to win the Rowland Meyrick next time out. Aye Right has had a fitness run when finishing 2nd to Sounds Russian at Kelso (winning was making it 4 wins and a 2nd in his last 5 starts with that 2nd coming to Dusart) and a reproduction here and he goes close again.

Aye Right @ 7/1

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