Cheltenham Day 3 – Thursday

In this post, we will identify the top contenders that pose the greatest threat to the favourites in the Day 3 races at the Cheltenham Festival. By analysing various factors such as form, distance, and more, we aim to find reasons why the favourites may not be as strong as their odds suggest and could potentially be beaten by another horse. Our goal is to uncover potential upsets and let’s hope we have a few here!

James Du Berlais is clearly thought of as being very classy. He started his career with Willie Mullins in the Champion Hurdle of 2021 and then a month later stepped up a mile for the Stayers Hurdle at Punchestown where he fared much better finishing 2^nd (albeit beaten 9 lengths by Klassical Dream). He probably wanted 2 ½ mile but couldn’t find that over hurdles however he’s got the perfect trip over fences in the Turner Novices Chase. He made his return from 612 days off the track with an easy win (as expected) in a Beginners Chase on New Years Day. This beginners chase was won last year by Jungle Boogie who is still 3 from 3 haven’t not been seen since but suggests that Willie wanted to run another very classy horse in this Beginners chase. I hope to see James Du Berlais in the Flogas Novice Chase next time out as there is arguably no time to waste with James Du Berlais after missing nearly 2 years. I did look at Classic Getaway for this Turners Novice Chase but having not been seen since November, I imagine we will hear that he’s out for the rest of the season in the upcoming weeks.

Current Favourite: Mighty Potter @ 7/2

James Du Berlais @ 8/1

Eric Bloodaxe finished 2^nd behind the ridiculously well handicapped Maxxum at Leopardtown but I’m sure Gordon wasn’t bothered as he got both qualified, Maxxum won and now gets in the Final as well. I think Eric Bloodaxe was ridden to finish in the top 4 and get qualified more than winning the race as he pulled his way to the front early enough before finding Maxxum running past him with ease. We know this race can work out well in the Pertemps Final and last year the 2^nd horse finished a good 4^th in the Final (sent off 11/2) whilst the 5^th horse was sent off just 7/1. Both have since won comfortably (one over hurdles, one over fences).

Current Favourite: Maxxum @ 4/1

Eric Bloodaxe @ 16/1

Fakir D’Oudaries is a fantastic horse over 2 ½ mile but unfortunately he’s in the same era as Allaho. I actually think……Allaho WON’T run in the Ryanair this year (injury) and instead, bear with me here, Galopin Des Champs WILL when they realise in the Irish Gold Cup he’s too headstrong to run in a Gold Cup and won’t get home. However for this blog, my selection will be Fakir D’Oudaries as I’m pretty confident he will run here and chase home whoever runs out of Allaho or Galopin Des Champs (both won’t run). If we took out the above mentioned and only looked at 2m3 to 2m5f for Fakir D’Oudaries over fences his form would read: 11113111. Instead it actually reads 121142112 which still reads pretty good to be fair. If Allaho runs, I don’t think Blue Lord will whilst you can’t trust Shishkin will be fit and ready and he needs to prove he would stay the trip. I think Fakir D’Oudaries is generally ridden for 2^nd as well whereas Shishkin would likely be ridden to try and beat Allaho which is a stupid decision.

Current Favourite: Allaho @ 2/1

Fakir D’Oudaries @ 10/1

Paisley Park at 11 probably represents the value in this race at the moment. He was 3^rd last year when doing his usual and looking like he was going to finish mid-division at the top of the hill. He finished best of all and if he had pinged the last like Champ and Thyme Hill did he would have finished 2^nd. He lost 2 lengths at the last by jumping it slowly. This season he was narrowly beaten by Champ at Newbury before winning comfortably and impressively at Kempton suggesting he’s not finished with yet. If you actually go back through his form he does need to be held right up and only get going on the 2^nd circuit. He has been ridden more forward on occasions and he’s not had that usual finish. I don’t think it’s anything to do with stamina or ability but simply his attitude and he enjoys running past horses late on rather than having been with them during the race. I think he’s just anti-social!

Current Favourite: Flooring Porter/Home By The Lee @ 6/1

Paisley Park @ 14/1

French Dynamite is the one that catches my eye most here. The 2m5f Handicap Chase at Punchestown in April 2022 has worked out INCREDIBLY well. El Barra (1^st) has since won a Grade 3, Busselton (2^nd) has since won the Kerry National, French Dynamite (3^rd) has since finished a close 2^nd in the Paddy Power Gold Cup at Cheltenham, Fan Des Blues (4^th) has since won 2 races at Ballinrobe and Cork, Gabbys Cross (5^th) has since the Galway Blazers Handicap Chase (Busselton was 2^nd and Fan De Blues was 3^rd). French Dynamite as above finished 2^nd in the Paddy Power Gold Cup at Cheltenham behind our selection Ga Law who’s form also looked incredibly strong coming into the race and even that race has worked out well with the 3^rd placed Midnight River winning since. This form line looks really strong. I think what catches my eye is connections of French Dynamite then stepped him up in class for a Grade 1, arguably a race he wasn’t going to win or likely to win with the idea that his handicap mark shouldn’t be changed by much (went up 1lb) and I think this is on the basis that they are coming back for the Plate at the Festival.

Current Favourite: So Scottish @ 6/1

French Dynamite @ 16/1

Halka Du Tabert won a P2P and has since won a Bumper and a 2m Mares Maiden Hurdle. The fact she has won a 3m P2P arguably means she has both speed and stamina which will see her go well at Cheltenham. The win at Naas over hurdles looked a good race and she won comfortably beating the Willie Mullins even money favourite Eabha Grace. Looking back through previous winners of this maiden makes the win even more encouraging for Halka Du Tabert. Willie Mullins has previously run Brandy Love, Yukon Lil and Relegate who were/are all very smart mares. Even Royal Illusion who was beat in 3^rd won next time out before falling in a Grade 1 after that when sent off just 11/2 (her final start over hurdles). The Solerina Mares Hurdle next time out would look the obvious next race for Halka Du Tabert and a win here and she’ll be right near the head of the market.

Current Favourite: Luccia @ 3/1

Halka Du Tabert @ 14/1

Mister Coffey is one that I’m giving another chance here. He’s definitely better than his handicap mark but hasn’t quite got things right yet. He arguably should have won this race last year when finishing 2^nd under Sam Waley-Cohen who thought he was going to win without coming off the bridle. He finished 2^nd to our RatingTheRaces TOP RATED Chambard (won at 72.43 XSP). He finished 2^nd on his return this season when trying to make the running. He’ll be more patient in the Kim Muir and I think he may even go straight there now as he’s rated 140 and he can’t be winning a race in the meantime and going above the 145 threshold.

Current Favourite: Indigo Breeze @ 12/1

Mister Coffey @ 16/1

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