Value Odds and Value % explained

Value Odds are the fair odds our algorithm sets for each runner. Value % measures the live market price against those fair odds, so anything over 100% is trading bigger than we think it should.

Two of the most useful columns on the ratings work as a pair: Value Odds tell you what a horse should be, and Value % tell you whether the market agrees.

Value Odds

Value Odds are the fair odds our algorithm calculates for each runner, based on its true chance of winning the race. Think of them as the price the horse ought to be if the market read the form the way our model does. A horse with Value Odds of 3.0 is, in our estimation, a genuine 2/1 chance.

Value %

Value % compares the live Win odds to the Value Odds, as a percentage:

Value % = current Win odds ÷ Value Odds × 100

That gives you a single number telling you whether a horse is trading bigger or shorter than its fair price:

• Over 100% means the market price is bigger than our fair odds, so the horse is value (an overlay). The higher the number, the bigger the overlay.
• Exactly 100% means the market and our fair odds agree.
• Under 100% means the horse is shorter than our fair odds, so it's poor value on the day (an underlay).

For example, a horse we rate a fair 2.63 that's trading at 3.15 in the market shows a Value % of about 120%: it's a fifth bigger than we think it should be.

Using them

Value Odds and Value % update live as the market moves, so a horse can drift into value or shorten out of it through the morning. A strong RTR Rank trading well above its fair price, a high Value %, is exactly the kind of overlay worth a closer look. You'll find both columns defined alongside every other one in the ratings columns reference.