Our tracker note on Shimmering Sun said one thing: another Listed race, surely there for the taking. On Friday she took one, and the handicapper has responded with the biggest rise of the week.
This is our Handicap Analysis, following on from last week's edition, where we read the new official marks against our own ratings rather than just listing numbers. Target races are checked against this year's published programme, and race links point to last year's runnings.
Shimmering Sun: raised 7lb, 95 to 102
We have followed this filly through 3 editions, and the argument has never changed: she is perfectly capable at the right level, and the right level is not a Group 2 against the best juvenile sprinters in the country. After the Lowther we said to watch for her dropping in class. She ran 2nd in a Group 3 at Kempton at 16/1. Our tracker then said another Listed race was there for the taking.
On 2 October she went to Dundalk for the Legacy Stakes, a Listed race worth over £22,000 to the winner, and won it at 3/1 from Controlla. The handicapper has put her up 7lb, from 95 to 102.
She is a British-trained 2-year-old who won in Ireland, so the number that moved is her British one. Her Irish mark stays at 95, and the BHA figure of 102 is the one that governs where she can run.
Where next: at 102 the handicap route is shut. Every 2-year-old nursery left on the programme is capped at 95, so the handicap route is shut to her. That is not a complaint: a filly rated 102 belongs in Listed and Group company, and she has just proved she wins at that level. Her value to us now is as a Group-class filly we got onside with at 94.
This week's movers at a glance
- Shimmering Sun: raised 7lb, 95 to 102, after winning a Listed race.
- Bladey Lady: raised 7lb, 64 to 71, after winning at Catterick.
- Pierre Royal: raised 7lb, 90 to 97, with the Irish handicapper, for the Cambridgeshire.
- Air Force One: raised 4lb, 102 to 106, after winning the Rous Stakes.
- Stratusnine: raised 3lb, 102 to 105, after a 3rd in a Group 3.
- Moonfall: raised 2lb, 101 to 103, after a 2nd in the Challenge Cup.
- Mr Mcwhinny: hurdle mark raised 2lb, 98 to 100.
- Wootz: raised 1lb, 94 to 95, after winning at Wolverhampton.
- Tuco Salamanca: unchanged on 110 after a 3rd in the Rous Stakes.
- Mitbaahy: unchanged on 106 after a 2nd at Kempton.
- Thunder Call: unchanged on 101 after a 9th in the Challenge Cup.
- Farasan: dropped 3lb, 76 to 73, after his first nursery.
- Adrestia: dropped 1lb, 96 to 95, 6th at Ascot.
- Two Tribes: dropped 1lb, 102 to 101.
- Ancient State: dropped 1lb, 90 to 89.
- Supreme King: dropped 1lb, 80 to 79.
- Showtown: dropped 1lb, 65 to 64.
- Seacole: dropped 1lb, 73 to 72.
Those are the numbers, and they are a matter of public record. What they are worth, and where each horse goes next, is the part below for Premium and Pro members.