This is our Handicap Analysis, following on from last week's edition, where we read the new official marks against our own ratings rather than just listing numbers. Target races are checked against this year's published programme, and race links point to last year's runnings.
Coul Angel: raised 3lb, 103 to 106
He went to York on 10 October for the Sprint Trophy, a Class 2 heritage handicap over 6f worth over £51,000 to the winner, and beat 20 rivals off 103 at 9/2 for Michael Appleby. Advertised was 2nd and Al Shabab Storm 3rd.
The handicapper has added 3lb, to 106, and that is a fair price for winning a race of that size. The number worth holding on to is the one underneath it: he won the Bold Lad Sprint at the Curragh in September off an Irish mark of 95, and he has now won a British heritage handicap off 103. He has carried the extra 8lb and still won.
Where next: 106 is the problem, and it is becoming a familiar one. The big autumn sprint handicaps stop at 105, so a horse rated 106 cannot get into them. That is now 3 from this series in a month, with Tuco Salamanca on 110 and Air Force One on 106, who have all won their way out of the handicap programme. For Coul Angel it means Listed company, where Air Force One has already shown it can be done, or waiting for the handicapper to let him back down.
This week's movers at a glance
- Coul Angel: raised 3lb, 103 to 106, after winning the Sprint Trophy.
- Toca Madera: raised 4lb, 95 to 99, after winning at York.
- Sea Lantern: raised 5lb, 89 to 94, 2nd in the Cesarewitch.
- Study Of Words: raised 7lb, 94 to 101, after winning the Old Rowley Cup.
- The Mighty Celt: dropped 2lb, 131 to 129, 8th in the Silver Trophy.
- Dark Thirty: dropped 2lb, 98 to 96.
- Double Parked: dropped 2lb, 80 to 78.
- Dovecote: dropped 2lb, 75 to 73.
- Beylerbeyi: dropped 1lb, 103 to 102, 7th in the Cesarewitch.
- Castle Stuart: dropped 1lb, 89 to 88.
- Red Spells Danger: dropped 1lb, 97 to 96.
- Thunder Run: dropped 1lb, 107 to 106.
- Binhareer: dropped 1lb, 103 to 102.
- Annaf: dropped 1lb, 96 to 95.
- Kateira: dropped 1lb, 141 to 140 over hurdles.
- Devil's Peak: unchanged on 91 after the Old Rowley Cup.
- Spoken Truth: unchanged on 90 after the Autumn Mile.
- Manton Bay: unchanged on 97 with the Irish handicapper.
Those are the numbers, and they are a matter of public record. What they are worth, and where each horse goes next, is the part below for Premium and Pro members.