On 4 August we wrote one line about Song N Dance: watch her turn up in a Class 3 off 83 and win it. She won off 83 on 7 September. Three weeks later the handicapper has taken 13lb off that number, and the angle we followed all summer is finished.
This is our Handicap Analysis, following on from last week's Coul Angel edition, where we read the new official marks against our own ratings rather than just listing numbers. Every target race is checked against this year's published programme, and race links point to last year's runnings.
Song N Dance: raised 10lb, 86 to 96
The sequence is worth laying out, because it is the whole life cycle of a handicap angle in 8 weeks. We spent 3 editions arguing that her best form was a mile off 84 and that the handicapper kept easing her. She won at Wolverhampton off 83 at 7/2 on 7 September. She went up 3lb to 86 for it. Then, on 25 September, she ran in the Rosemary Stakes at Newmarket, a Listed race, and finished 3rd of 9 at 16/1 off that 86.
The handicapper has now put her up 10lb, to 96. Look at the grid below and you can see his reasoning: the 2 fillies who beat her, Alobayyah and Lizzana, are both rated 96 themselves, and he has simply moved her alongside them.
We are not going to pretend that is good news for us. The mark we spent 2 months writing about was 83 to 86, and at 96 she is out of that world entirely. In our view she is now a Listed-class filly with a handicap mark to match, which is a better problem for her owners than it is for this column.
Where next: there is one detail worth knowing. Newmarket's fillies' handicap over a mile on 21 October is restricted to horses rated 76 to 95, so at 96 she misses it by a pound. What she can run in is Newmarket's Class 2 fillies' handicap over 1m2f on 3 October, which is open to 105 (last year's running), if connections think the extra 2f is within her. Otherwise it is Listed company, where she has just proved she is not out of place.
This week's movers at a glance
- Song N Dance: raised 10lb, 86 to 96, after a Listed 3rd.
- Mezzo Forte: a first mark of 97.
- Frankies Dream: raised 4lb, 75 to 79, after a 2nd at Newcastle.
- King Of Berkshire: raised 2lb, 89 to 91, after winning at Newmarket.
- Toca Madera: raised 1lb, 94 to 95, after winning at Beverley.
- Addison Grey: raised 1lb, 97 to 98, after a 2nd at Newmarket.
- Headmaster: dropped 3lb, 87 to 84, with the Irish handicapper.
- Hypnotised: dropped 1lb, 83 to 82.
- Mr Noble: dropped 1lb, 90 to 89.
- Spirit Mixer: dropped 1lb, 90 to 89.
- Alcarath: dropped 1lb, 92 to 91, 13th in the Cambridgeshire.
- Erzindjan: dropped 1lb, 100 to 99, 7th in the Cambridgeshire.
- Oneforthegutter: unchanged on 82 after a 2nd at Epsom.
- Moonfall: unchanged on 101, and did not run in the Cambridgeshire.
- Showtown: unchanged on 65, and runs at Ayr today.
Those are the numbers, and they are a matter of public record. What they are worth, and where each horse goes next, is the part below for Premium and Pro members.