The Pace Map

The Pace Map reads how a race is likely to be run, how many horses want to lead and where each is likely to race, so you can judge whether the pace will suit a front-runner or a horse held up.

How a race is run decides a lot of them. A lone front-runner left alone up front is hard to peg back; several horses fighting for the lead can cut each other's throats and set it up for one held up off the pace. The Pace Map, a Professional feature currently in BETA, reads that likely shape for you, right on the racecard.

The verdict

The top line is our read on the race, for example "Likely a contested lead" with "3 horses want the lead" underneath. It ranges from a lone leader (one horse likely to get an uncontested lead) through a contested lead to a race with no obvious pace at all.

The evidence behind it

We don't just assert it, we show the numbers underneath. You'll see how often a front-runner has actually won when that many horses go for the lead versus when one gets it alone, and how horses that led have fared against horses held up at this course, over this trip and in a field this size. Pace bias changes a lot with those things, front-runners tend to win far less over a longer trip or in a big field, and the figures are drawn from that exact set of races.

Reading the map

The strip runs from BACK OF THE FIELD on the left to the 3f pole on the right. Each horse is drawn as its silks and placed by how much it likes to be up with the pace: confirmed front-runners sit nearest the pole, hold-up horses towards the back, with its draw shown underneath. So a contested lead looks like silks bunched up at the pole, while a big gap at the front means there's little natural pace in the race. Any runner we can't get a firm read on is listed beneath the strip rather than given a position we can't stand behind.

How to use it

Use it to picture the race before you bet: a strongly contested pace often helps horses that come from behind, while a soft or lone-led race favours those handy early. One honest caveat, the map is good at reading the race's likely pace and less reliable at pinpointing exactly which horse will lead, so treat it as the shape of the race rather than a nailed-on prediction. As a BETA feature we're still refining it.