Two weeks of revisions in one again, because we held last Tuesday back rather than run a thin edition mid-week. It has worked out well, because the fortnight since has been the best this series has had: 6 of the horses we have written about have gone out and won, and one of them settled an argument we picked with the handicapper a month ago.
This is our Handicap Analysis, following on from the Ebor edition, where we read the new official marks against our own ratings rather than just listing numbers.
Thunder Call: raised 9lb, 93 to 102
On 11 August we said something fairly blunt about Thunder Call. He had been beaten into second in the Shergar Cup Sprint, we thought he was the best horse in the race and that the ride had cost him, and the handicapper had responded by putting him up just 2lb, to 93. Our words at the time: "2lb does not begin to cover the improvement we think is in him." The suggestion was simply another handicap, where "he will be bang there".
He went to Ascot on 5 September for the Schweppes Handicap, a Class 2 worth over £41,000 to the winner, was sent off at 1/1, and won. The handicapper has now put him up 9lb, from 93 to 102.
That is the whole point of reading a mark rather than reporting it. The number that mattered was not the 93 itself, it was the gap between the 93 and what the horse had actually shown, and this week the handicapper has closed that gap in a single move.
There is a bonus in the result too, because 3 of the horses from this series lined up in that same race. Thunder Call won it, Two Tribes ran 3rd off 103 and Addison Grey 4th off 97.
This fortnight's movers at a glance
- Thunder Call: raised 9lb, 93 to 102, after winning at Ascot.
- Spoken Truth: raised 5lb, 85 to 90, after winning at Ripon.
- Mr Noble: raised 5lb, 84 to 89, after winning at Southwell.
- Manton Bay: raised 5lb, 92 to 97, 2nd in the Irish Cambridgeshire.
- Andesite: raised 2lb, 80 to 82, after winning at Thirsk.
- Shimmering Sun: raised 1lb, 94 to 95, 2nd in a Group 3.
- Song N Dance: still 83, with a rise to come, after winning at Wolverhampton.
- Rake Lane: a first mark at last, 62.
- Headmaster: dropped 3lb, 92 to 89.
- Oneforthegutter: dropped 2lb, 86 to 84.
- All Ways Glamorous: dropped 2lb, 97 to 95.
- Ozat: dropped 2lb, 97 to 95.
- Frankies Dream: dropped 2lb, 77 to 75.
- Stooked: dropped 2lb, 75 to 73.
- Castle Stuart: dropped 1lb, 90 to 89, 3rd at York.
- Supreme King: dropped 1lb, 82 to 81.
Those are the numbers, and they are a matter of public record. What they are worth, and where each horse goes next, is the part below for Premium and Pro members.