Here are Liam’s thoughts for Day 2 at the Cheltenham Festival. Writing these thoughts on paper (well typing them) have pushed me on to horses that I hadn’t considered. I can’t recommend enough to write your thoughts down and you will convince yourself of some and dissuade yourself of others!
Liam has been busy this year spotting those who he really likes for Cheltenham Festival races and he and our members are in great positions for plenty of races including having advised Dame De Compagnie for the Coral Cup 25/1. To see all of his selections for the Cheltenham Festival to date sign up for a Premium or Professional Subscription (MONTHLY PREMIUM and PROFESSIONAL Subscriptions are currently 50% off for the first month)
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Liam’s Cheltenham Festival 2020 Selections
Ballymore Novices Hurdle
Envoi Allen – is arguably as close to a banker as there is at the festival. No horse is ‘dead cert’ as you can have falls, unseats, hampered, not run up to their best etc. Annie Power & Benie Des Dieux are 2 that are in that ‘fall’ category. Anyway, his form is rock solid. He’s 7 from 7, has won at the Cheltenham Festival beating the right horses and has won over 2m4f at Naas so the trip shouldn’t be an issue. He could be very special and I hope he wins and puts down another marker as being one to really watch when out of novice company.
Sporting John – 3 from 3 for Philip Hobbs and 4 from 4 in his career having also won a point to point. You could argue his first run and win at Exeter was his best performance as he beat Harry Senior in very easy fashion. Harry Senior has since won a Grade 2 at Cheltenham in January. I think he has a lot of ability and very much looking forward to seeing him over fences (hopefully next season) but I think he can certainly run a good race here and is likely to be the one to give Envoi Allen the most to do.
Thyme Hill – finished 3rd in the Bumper last year behind Envoi Allen and on that has something to find with him and is also probably going to run in the Albert Bartlett instead of this race. In the Albert Bartlett he’s likely to be favourite and you would imagine connections will take this option.
The Big Breakaway – hasn’t been seen since winning at Newbury over 2m4f beating Papa Tango Charly, Craigneiche and I K Brunel. The last 2 named both won on their next starts and the form looks quite strong. The Big Breakaway didn’t just beat them on this occasion, he trounced them and a tilt at this race looks very worthwhile. There’s likely to be lots more to come from him although his lack of a recent run and lack of a run in a Graded race is a concern.
RSA Chase
Minella Indo – won at Cheltenham and Punchestown last year and has since finished 2nd to Laurina on his first start over fences before winning at Navan , getting up late on. You could argue this isn’t good enough form to win here however he arrived at Cheltenham last year still a maiden over hurdles and yet won impressively at 50/1 before backing this up at Punchestown so arguably comes into his own at this time of year.
Allaho – finished 3rd behind Minella Indo at both Cheltenham and Punchestown having beaten him at Clonmel. Willie Mullins has suggested that they now know how he should be ridden and he will be allowed to go forward and try and get the others in behind off the bridle as they feel he stays really well. He was beaten on his first run over fences however he may have lacked the fitness that Easy Game had, as he had already run over hurdles just over a month before. I think Allaho can reverse the placings here with Easy Game but can he do it with Minella Indo as well?
Easy Game – started last season in good style before his form tailed off after finishing 8th at the Cheltenham Festival in the Ballymore. This season he returned with a good 2nd to Honeysuckle over hurdles before being sent chasing. Winning his first start as mentioned above, beating Allaho he then ran Faugheen to a neck at Leoparstown over the 2m5f trip and it’s likely that Easy Game runs in the Marsh Novices Chase and not the RSA Chase.
Faugheen – is still unclear which race he’ll be running in and having won over 2m3f – 2m5f, I think there is no reason to run here and he should instead take his chance in the Marsh Novices where he both has the speed and stamina required to go very close. His 3 wins over fences have come at Punchestown where he won comfortably in a Beginners Chase before winning 2 Grade 1’s at Limerick and Leoparstown. Samcro disappointed at Limerick and this made it a very weak Grade 1 however his win at Leopardstown was a much better effort and a better race. I think they will run both Easy Game and Faugheen in the Marsh Novices Chase and Allaho in the RSA.
Champ – arrives here off the back of a fall which isn’t ideal however if he hadn’t fallen he would arguably be a very short priced favourite having won at Newbury twice already this season. He win in the Grade 2 Berkshire Novices showed he had a bit of speed about him as well. This just short of 2 ½ mile race could have caught him out but he arguably won it with a bit in hand despite winning by just 1 ¾ lengths. You could argue that Champ hasn’t really beaten ‘proper’ Grade 1 animals. Whilst he beat Black Op , he had been out of form having not won over hurdles since winning the Grade 1 at Aintree and had only beaten Mr Antolini in a Beginners Chase at Stratford. Up against definite Grade 1 animals in Allaho, Minella Indo and the rapidly improving comfortable Grade 2 impressive winner Copperhead, he will need to be at his very best to go with these.
Coral Cup
Dostal Phil – Dostal Phil is the sole JP representative in the Imperial Cup on Saturday (if it goes ahead) and I wonder whether the County Hurdle is more of his race the Festival rather than this Coral Cup. Having won on Boxing Day at Fontwell, it’s very possible that he goes close in the Imperial Cup (if he wins he would be on for the bonus) and whatever race he ran in at the Festival he would have to be respected. I would be concerned that he was beaten in a handicap at Cheltenham off 120 back in November 2018. This lack of course form would worry.
Dame De Compagnie – runs a big race if she runs here. She was dropped back to a mark of 140 after winning an appeal having been given a further 2lb rise on collateral form. Her most recent win was back in December where she very impressively and in my eyes comfortably beat Indefatigable who has since won at Warwick in a Mares Grade Listed race. I think she’s very good herself and for Dame De Compagnie to beat her as well as she did, she very much has to be considered here. Having been raised to 140, she was put away with this race in mind. Appealing the 2lb could be very important as well as she may be that far clear that they want to make sure (could be the opposite obviously and she needed that back off to be important).
Burrows Edge – will be fitted with cheekpieces despite winning at Kempton recently. When he won, I thought he won with plenty in hand as Nico didn’t really get after him at all and yet he had still closed on the front pair when they came down. I think he would have won anyway but maybe won by further than had hoped. With about 2 to jump, I was already ready to get on him for this race as thought he was running an eyecatching race without doing much. His win does mean he’s up 6lb to 138 which I think he can certainly still run a huge race off.
Protektorat– has yet to win this season but has/hasn’t/has won once in his 4 starts including finishing 2nd to Mack The Man at Sandown (running a big race in Betfair Hurdle when brought down at last). He won, then got disqualified at Cheltenham before winning the race back on appeal (rightly so) in a decent Listed event. His most recent 3rd behind Harry Senior and King Roland was a good run in a Grade 2 event when arguably given a bit much to do. His handicap mark of 144 could look lenient but I worry about the strength of this form.
Champagne Well – drops into a handicap having been competing in Graded races for 4 of his last 5 races. His other race was a Novice event at Cheltenham which he duly won. Despite being a Novice, he is a 2nd season novice so has plenty of experience to his name. He finishing 2nd to Thyme Hill and then 2nd to Redford Road over 2m5f and 2m7f respectively at Cheltenham. I like both of those for the Albert Bartlett so Champagne Well has to come into the equation in this race. Last time out at Doncaster he looked to be travelling like the winner coming to the last but emptied against one of the strongest 3m hurdlers you will see in Ramses De Teillee. Dropping back to 2m5f should really suit and he’s proven he copes with Cheltenham and he should go very well here.
Queen Mother Champion Chase
I really do believe this is out of the big 3. If we got 8+ runners here , we would arguably need 2 of these to disappoint to get anything from an e/w selection and as such I think this is a win only race.
Altior – is a 2m2f horse with the speed of a 2 miler which is why in my opinion he’s been as good as he is over 2m. I thought the decision to step up in trip was foolish. It wasn’t broken so didn’t need fixing. He bounced back at Newbury when his stamina kicked in late on and he won a shade cosily in the end when beating Sceau Royal (like he did at Cheltenham last year) and Dynamite Dollars. This pair behind are like Sceau Royal and Politologue last year who both came there at the festival travelling well but were outstayed late on by Altior. This year however these 2 horses could be ‘replaced’ with Chacun Pour Soi and Defi Du Seuil who are surely better horses than the aforementioned pair. For Altior to win, I think he needs to be going for coming down the hill and really testing the stamina of Chacun Pour Soi and Defi Du Seuil.
Defi Du Seuil – is my fancy for this race as I think he has the speed to keep up with Altior and crucially, has the turn of foot that can be used up the hill to get past Altior. Having won the JLT Novices Chase last year, he clearly has the stamina required to get home and he shouldn’t be nearly empty when his time to use his turn of foot arrives. I would almost play him like Harchibald (except with a better end result), sit right on the tail of Altior for as long as possible and try and kick past up the hill after the last. His form is very good and I think he can be the next Altior! I think he’s improved again this year which isn’t a surprise as he’s now a 7 year old. He was beaten by Chacun Pour Soi at Punchestown last season but he made a mistake mid-race which knocked him further back than ideal where things arguably happened a bit quick having been racing over further.
Chacun Pour Soi – is clearly very talented and should go well here although if I had backed him, I would be worried he is a strength horse who lacks the turn of foot that Defi Du Seuil has. He’s very very good, don’t get me wrong but he will need to confirm the placings with Defi Du Seuil at a course where Defi Du Seuil is very good. I think he may finish 3rd here as he is very similar to Altior in that they both stay very well but in a match up, I would have Altior beating Chacun Pour Soi on a line through Min.
Cross Country Chase
Having backed A New Story to win this a few years ago at 50/1, I have lost interest in this race since however this year we could see the French vs Tiger Roll.
Tiger Roll – is looking to win this race for the 3rd consecutive year and is surely going to be primed for it again despite also looking to win the Grand National for the 3rd consecutive year. He will be VERY hard to beat. I can’t give you any information you don’t already know.
Easysland – is surely the only danger to Tiger Roll here. He won just over a month ago at Pau having won at Cheltenham over the Cross Country Fences in December in good style. His jockey arguably went for home far too soon and he was badly idling late on. He won’t be able to do this against Tiger Roll who will at the very least go with him. If you wanted a bet in the race and don’t want to back Tiger Roll then a small bet on Easyland would be the way to go. He’ll go well and should be the only challenger to Tiger Roll late on.
Boodles Juvenile Handicap Hurdle
Cerberus – was purchased by JP McManus after beating A Wave Of The Sea (also owned by JP McManus) at Fairyhouse arguably suggesting he thought A Wave Of The Sea was very good and Cerberus was worth purchasing if he was good enough to beat him. Cerberus came over to Chepstow for the Grade 1 Finale where he was beaten well enough by Allmankind and I think it could be silly to run Cerberus therefore in the Triumph Hurdle as he’s unlikely to beat Allmankind. Cerberus then finished 3rd in the Spring Juvenile at Leopardstown where he was running really well and alongside Aspire Tower when Aspire Tower. Cerberus either found very little after the last or idled badly and was caught by both A Wave Of The Sea and Wolf Prince. I’m hoping it was the latter and he simply stopped in front. If he runs in this handicap, I think he could go very close and should have enough around him to keep him honest.
A Wave Of The Sea – also owned by JP McManus is likely to run either here or the Triumph Hurdle and I think it would be best to split him and Cerberus up. If either run in this race, then I would be interested in them. A Wave Of The Sea very much reminds me of Gardens Of Babylon who finished 3rd in the Triumph Hurdle last season. I think of the 2 , he’s the stronger stayer and the better Triumph Hurdle field could see him run a better race. Having won his first 2 starts he was then beaten by Cerberus at Fairyhouse which prompted JP to purchase Cerberus. He then didn’t run his race when sent off just 5/2 against Aspire Tower when the cheekpieces were fitted. They were quickly removed and he bounced back winning at Leopardstown as mentioned above. Without cheekpieces he’s a much better horse but I think he’s top 6 in the Triumph compared to very close here.
Saint D’Oroux – has been sent off favourite 3 times in his 4 Irish starts which suggests to me a lot has been expected. Having run a reasonable race when 4th to Cerberus at Fairyhouse , he disappointed at Leopardstown before finally getting off the mark at Gowran Park where he won by 24 lengths. It possible he took longer to acclimatise to Ireland having started his career in France where he finished 2nd for Mr Macaire at Dieppe where he beat Aramax who is favourite for this race. He will be 5lb better off with Aramax and having now found his feet and got his act together he could well be a dark horse in this race.
Blacko – has done nothing wrong to date , winning both starts for Alan King since coming over from France. His win at Taunton where he beat Zoffee looks decent form (Zoffee had chased home Lord Lamington at Market Rasen and has since won comfortably at Doncaster) whilst the 3rd The Pink’n has finished 2nd to Blacko again at Warwick as well as 3rd and 5th to Sir Psycho and Goshen respectively. Blacko on this isn’t Grade 1 quality however his handicap mark of 135 doesn’t look too harsh and I think he can run a nice race.
Aramax is the favourite for this race off the back of winning at Naas in the race that Band Of Outlaws had won previously. He’s been given a handicap mark of 138 which is 1lb lower than what Band Of Outlaws was given. You could argue he’s been priced up as favourite based on his win due to who won it the year before. On their French form Saint D’oroux can give him a good race and is nearly 3 times the price.
Champion Bumper
Appreciate It – was 3rd on debut for Willie Mullins in November before winning his last 2 and in very impressive fashion. His most recent win in February was at Leopardstown which was won last year by Envoi Allen before he went on to win the Champion Bumper at Cheltenham. Appreciate It has won over further (2 1/2mile) and I really think you need to stay to win this bumper and he’s the right favourite and will take all the beating.
Ferny Hollow – has always been highly thought of and finally got off the mark at the 3rd attempt at Fairyhouse when he was given a very patient hold up ride. This was very interesting and although he was very impressive, on the heavy ground it’s possible his rivals just went too hard. He clearly has ability and Cheveley Park would love to win this again but the Mullins camp are very sweet on Appreciate It and I would be surprised if Ferny Hollow was the one to beat Appreciate It.
The Glancing Queen – could make her return this season in this race in which she was 5th last year. The form of that bumper has obviously worked out really well with Thyme Hill, Envoi Allen and Abacadabras all holding big chances in the Novice hurdles. After her 5th last year, she went to Aintree and won the Mares Bumper beating the very talented Minella Melody. The layoff would be a concern but I’m sure she will be ready to run another big race and if the strength of the race isn’t like last year then she could go very close.
Eskylane – is very interesting and you could argue he should be a shorter price. He finished 2nd on rules debut when he went around the outside and was only narrowly beaten by Assemble. He was also still keen turning into the straight. Eskylane was beaten a head with back in 3rd Appreciate It. Eskylane was allowed to go forward on his next start and he won impressively having been purchased by Mr Haughey and if he had been purchased by Gigginstown or JP McManus he would be a much shorter price.
Adrimel – can’t be ignored here having won impressively on debut. He was made to work harder last time but still looked very green with his legs going all over the place when asked to knuckle down. The front pair pulled clear and he got on top close to the finish. The runner up The Edgar Wallace was sent off the 3/1 2nd favourite and in receipt of 7lb and clearly he’s well thought of , so the form looks quite strong and Adrimel looks a big price.
Cheltenham Festival Analysis
Cheltenham Day 1 – Cheltenham Day 1!
Cheltenham Day 2 – This Blog!
Cheltenham Day 3 – Cheltenham Day 3
Cheltenham Day 4 – Cheltenham Day 4