Here are Liam’s thoughts for Day 4 at the Cheltenham Festival. Gold Cup Day and remember, FRIDAY’S RatingTheRaces Ratings are FREE for EVERYONE and this includes this FRIDAY for Gold Cup Day!
You can also listen to more in depth thoughts for Day 4 on the TurfTalk Podcast here: TurfTalk Day 4 Podcast featuring Liam
Final day of the Festival. Fingers crossed by this stage we are already ahead!
Our members are in a great position for the County Hurdle with Ciel De Neige @ 33/1, Mohaayed @ 50/1 and Aramon @ 16/1
To see all of Liam’s selections for the Cheltenham Festival to date sign up for a Premium or Professional Subscription (50% off new MONTHLY Subscriptions until Tuesday 10th March!) and check them out here:
Liam’s Cheltenham Festival 2020 Selections
Triumph Hurdle
On Solo @ 16/1 before winning Adonis. That race has a good record for British Debutants from France such as Fusil Raffles and more importantly Zarkandar and Soldatino. Gave weight and a beating to rivals and arguably fitness. 157 mark is too high and not a shoe in here at all.
Allmankind continues to do what he has to. Comfortably beat Cerberus who was purchased by JP McManus after he beat JP’s number 1 at the time A Wave Of The Sea. Very headstrong early on in races and has been given too much rope.
Goshen similar to Allmankind and not a lot between them based on Nordano who has franked form winning a good handicap as a Juvenile hurdler which is tough to do. Could end up taking each other on which would be a concern. Josh Moore told me that Goshen is by far superior to Botox Has who wasn’t too far behind Allmankind at Cheltenham at the end of last year.
Aspire Tower looked to be the big challenger from Ireland before falling at the last at Leopardstown. Form suggests is still the number one from Ireland but that fall would be a big concern for me especially for a Juvenile.
Cerberus looks on a decent handicap mark of 140 and I hope that one goes for the Boodles Juvenile Handicap Hurdle instead of this race but JP has a few in that race and whatever he leaves in would have to be respected.
Struggle to look outside the top few in the market. If we say 1 of these runs a poor race, we are arguably still only looking for 1 place from e/w potentials.
County Hurdle
On Ciel De Neige @ 33/1 before his run in the Betfair Hurdle where he ran a cracker. Possibly idled late on when hitting the front after the falls of those around him as he looked like he was going to be run out of it completely before rallying for 2nd. Paul Nicholls subsequently spoke about the Champion Hurdle for Pic D’Orhy which was interesting, if Ciel De Neige was beaten by a genuine Champion Hurdle then his 4lb rise up the weights wont be enough to stop him going very close back at Cheltenham where he was 3rd last year in the Boodles Juvenile Handicap off a break of 196 days.
Aramon for Willie Mullins again could be very interesting here , this could be a sort of Wicklow Brave style run where Aramon has been running consistently in Grade 1 races before dropping into a handicap at Cheltenham. Has some smart back form including running Klassical Dream to a head before the Supreme Novices last year. Finished 6th in Supreme last year when given a very patient ride. Looked the biggest danger to Klassical Dream turning in before fading late on. Nothing shown this season yet in 2 Grade 1’s but wasn’t beaten that far when 5th to Honeysuckle (beaten 8 lengths). Could be ridden closer to pace this year which might help.
Mohaayed won this in 2018 before finishing 7th last year to stablemate Ch’Tibello. Mohaayed won off 139 and was 7th off 153. Runs this year off just 142 which is very appealing. Has won Grade 3 Handicap at Ascot off 145. Looked to be a pace setter last year for Ch’Tibello and has run from front on many occasions since. Was covered up when won so hopefully these tactics are employed this year again.
All of the JP horses are interesting, Front View, Entoucas, Dostal Phil & Ciel De Neige as above , it’s trying to work out who needs what trip and who will be running where. Front View ran over 2 ½ mile last time so the Martin Pipe for him is likely to be the race he runs in.
If you like Ciel De Neige @ 8/1, 10/1 etc, then surely you have to like Remiluc who finished just behind in the Betfair Hurdle and was also raised 4lb. He finished 2nd in the County Hurdle last year off 144 with Harry Reed taking 5lb off. If Harry rode Remiluc again , his 3lb claim and off a 2lb lower mark you would think he can go very close particularly with his course and distance form at Cheltenham reading 212. He’s available at 40/1 in some places. He is going to run at this stage and it’s his only entry so taking the 40/1 instead of getting NRNB in places looks the way to play here.
Albert Bartlett
Thyme Hill has the perfect profile for this race and looks a real talent. 3rd in the Bumper last year, 3 from 3 over hurdles, started off in a Grade 2, won a Grade 2 at Cheltenham over 2m5f and won a Grade 1 at Newbury. There really isn’t any holes in his form at all.
The Cashel Man won a nice handicap earlier this season before running Thyme Hill close in the Grade 1 Challow Novices Hurdle. He stepped up to 3m last time in a pointless race and was awarded the race after initially finishing 2nd. It was a 3 runner affair and form in these races can often be ignored as the race tempo can be all wrong. I think he’ll be dropped down to 2 ½ mile as he can then go hard from the front.
Ramses De Teillee has been a revelation over hurdles this season and is probably off to the National after this race. He can go hard from the front and keep going just like he did in the Grade 2 at Haydock. The concern here would be how good is that form, it was a Grade 2 but it was surely a weak Grade 2.
Run Wild Fred is a horse in this race that looks overpriced. He was 3rd behind Envoi Allen and 6th in a Grade 2 bumper behind Envoi Allen. His return when only 3rd over hurdles is arguably the only reason he is between 16/1 and 33/1 however he may have badly needed the run that day. Since that run he won a Maiden hurdle over 2 ½ mile before falling at Thurles when although being ridden along he was still there and going very well. Monkfish was the horse who won this race and he’s only 5/1 for this Albert Bartlett Novices Hurdle. Run Wild Fred bounced back winning at Punchestown in a Grade 3 when beating the highly regarded Lord Royal. Did Lord Royal disappoint or did Run Wild Fred improve again. If Lord Royal had won by 1 ¾ lengths he would have been sub 10/1 for this race and Run Wild Fred has arguably been overlooked here.
Cheltenham Gold Cup
For me again, this will be a great race and all about those at the head of the market.
I’ve advised 2 here, one is Santini and the other is Lostintranslation (wait for the cheer) but I am seriously worried about Al Boum Photo and Delta Work.
Santini finished 2nd to Topofthegame last year in the RSA Chase when looking like he was going to win it coming to the 2nd last. This effort came off the back of a very interrupted prep whereas this year it’s been much smoother. He won at Sandown despite clearly needing the run before winning the Cotswold Chase beating Bristol De Mai who did everything right but wasn’t good enough to hold off Santini. Bristol De Mai was 3rd in the Gold Cup last year behind Al Boum Photo and Anibale Fly. Santini I think can still find more improvement whereas Bristol De Mai arguably wont.
Lostintranslation was beaten by my fancy for the Champion Chase in Defi De Seuil in last year’s JLT Novice Chase where I think he was simply beaten by a horse with an amazing turn of foot. He stepped up to 3m at Aintree and comfortably beat the RSA Chase winner Topofthegame with 2 behind that have since won decent handicaps in Top Ville Ben and Chris’s Dream. Lostintranslation won at Haydock beating Haydock specialist Bristol De Mai and showed he really wants a true test of stamina which he’ll get in the Gold Cup. The King George was NEVER going to suit, it’s a fast, easy 3m and I always think of it as a 2 ½ mile race. He arguably only ran here because he was on for the bonus. Another run since would have been preferred but hopefully he’s just been working hard at the yard and is fit and ready to run his race. If he truly runs to his best then he will go very close.
Delta Work for me only strengthens my idea that Santini will go very close here. He had a great prep and great run through in the RSA but was still beaten by Santini and I expect the places to be confirmed. Delta Work has since won 3 of his 4 runs in Grade 1 races beating all the right horses and he should go well here but hopefully Santini and Lostintranslation have slightly better form.
Al Boum Photo obviously can’t be ignored. He won the Gold Cup as a 7 year old and he’s been looked after with only the 1 run at Tramore again as his prep run. He clearly acts at Cheltenham and has Gold Cup experience on his side and will go well again. I’m hoping the Novices are slightly better than him however.
Clan Des Obeaux won the King George in impressive style again however this was at Kempton which is nothing like Cheltenham. He is another year older which will help this year but I do have stamina doubts about him and this year the Gold Cup is going to be a very hard race. You are arguably going to need to stay 3 ½ mile to win this year which I don’t think Clan Des Obeaux does
Foxhunters
Hazel Hill is the 5/1 favourite and rightly so. Last year at the Festival he won against the pace bias, those who raced close to the pace stayed there whilst Hazel Hill was the only one good enough to run them down. He won impressively and looks the one to beat again. He was beaten last time out at Wetherby , losing to Minella Rocco giving him 4lb but I feel his preparation this year will have been all geared around returning to Cheltenham whereas last year he earned his place at the Festival by winning at Warwick.
Minella Rocco is obviously one that should go close having finished 2nd in a Gold Cup before and looking like he’s enjoying the game again. He’s arguably been campaigned since moving to Hunter Chasing with the aim of earning his place in the Foxhunters. 4lb worse off with Hazel Hill and with that horse being primed for Cheltenham, I think Hazel Hill reverses the places.
Shantou Flyer was 2nd in this race last year and I think David got it wrong and should have been going harder and earlier aboard Shantou Flyer rather than waiting until after the last. David Maxwell does seem to do this tactic a lot and I don’t think he’ll be changing anything this year and think Haze Hill beats him again.
Grand Annual
My main hope in this race is Lisp who arguably has the perfect profile for this race. He’s still rated 144 which is actually 1lb LOWER than the start of the season and 1lb lower than when a good 5th in the County Hurdle. He’s only 6 years old now and what he achieved when 4 and 5 was very good. I added him to my Horses To Follow this season back in September and he ran a great race for 4th on his return in the Sodexo Handicap Hurdle off 145 when staying on strongly late on. 3 runs over fences have only seen him win once but his other 2 races featured some smart horses who have big chances in the Grade 1’s at the Festival. I do think he’s going to win a big handicap either over fences or hurdles and this race should be run to suit him and he should be finishing strongly up the hill.
Greaneteen is the current favourite for this race having won his last 3 races and is 5 from 7 for Paul Nicholls. His trainer has been talking him up as a Grade 1 horse and he will need to be off his 150 handicap mark (12lb higher than when winning at Musselburgh). A really interesting stat posted a few days ago was that in the last 15 years all 119 runners to have won a handicap chase in that season to then contest the Grand Annual have been beaten. This suggests the 2m handicap division is a very close knit division and you arguably won’t find something that’s well ahead of his mark here. That stat is enough to put me off Greaneteen.
Not Another Muddle was sent off just 6/1 for this race having won impressively at Sandown in February 2019. He ran well for 5th before finishing 2nd at Fontwell beaten just 1 length by Romain De Senam. He was meant to have a prep run last weekend but it was abandoned which would be a concern. I think he’s been saved for a return for the Grand Annual this year off just a 2lb higher mark. He was arguably given too much to do last year and may be closer to the pace this year.
Whatswrongwithyou also interests me at bigger prices. He finished 7th in this race last year when sent off just 8/1 and was definitely given too much to do. He was very inexperienced as a chaser coming into this race last year having had 3 runs and faced just 7 rivals in those 3 runs. With this Cheltenham race and 2 other big handicap fields faced now he should be ready for the hustle and bustle this year. He was sent off just 9/2 on his return when pulling up at Newbury before being sent off at 4/1 when stepped up to 2m3f on heavy going which didn’t suit. As such he would arrive here off a 6lb lower mark and I think he can go very close here. He is currently 33/1 which looks massive to me.
Theinval could be interesting as well IF you simply look at his previous efforts in this race. He was 3rd back in 2017 off a mark of 141 before finishing 4th in 2018 off a mark of 141 again. He went on to win at Ayr a crazy 3 runs later and was raised to a mark of 150 which he’s struggled off. He was last seen pulling up in December at Cheltenham when racing off a mark of 146 but was dropped 5lb back to his 141 mark. He is available at 25/1 NRNB and that could be appealing.
Martin Pipe Conditionals Jockey Hurdle
This is a race that you either get right or get completely wrong. We were fortunate to last year be on Dallas Des Pictons and Early Doors who finished 1st and 2nd. I think one of Gigginstown or JP McManus will win it again but there are PLENTY that fit the bill. Some are likely to run in the County Hurdle, Coral Cup and a few could run in the Grade 1’s.
Entoucas is my main hope here but I’m worried about lots of others. Entoucas was beaten by TOP RATED Envoi Allen at Down Royal, TOP RATED Thatsy at Navan and TOP RATED Mt Leinster at Leopardstown. Finally got his chance as TOP RATED at Naas and won by a comfortably 5 lengths. The mark of 136 is very appealing and I think he could go very close off this mark. Joseph has entered BOTH Entoucas and Front View in the Imperial Cup and this race just to complicate matters. It’s very possible he runs both in both races looking to try and win the bonus.
Front View looks to have a great profile for this race and ran his best race when 2nd last time out in a Grade 3. He looked all over the winner turning in but maybe lacked a bit of fitness late on (surely getting warmed up for Cheltenham) and he would be dangerous if he ran here. He too has form with Envoi Allen.
Palmers Hill is ANOTHER JP horse that could run here and I was impressed with his effort at Kempton when just a neck 2nd to Downtown Getaway. Downtown Getaway was thought good enough to contest a Grade 1 last year at Aintree and returned this season at Newbury where he was sent off 15/8 favourite but pulled up. After a wind op he was just good enough to hold off Palmers Hill who made up the most ground out of any horse in the race and was coming off the back of a 461 day lay off. This was a great effort and trained by Jonjo he could run him here and give Jonjo Jnr another big chance in this race. Jonjo rode Early Doors to win this race last year and in his final year as a conditional he could try and win this race for his dad.
Cheltenham Festival Analysis
Cheltenham Day 1 – Cheltenham Day 1
Cheltenham Day 2 – Cheltenham Day 2
Cheltenham Day 3 – Cheltenham Day 3
Cheltenham Day 4 – This blog!