Here are Liam’s thoughts for Day 3 at the Cheltenham Festival. I wonder whether there could be a quiet JP McManus gamble in the Pertemps Final but NOT on Sire Du Berlais!
Liam has been busy this year spotting those who he really likes for Cheltenham Festival races and he and our members are in great positions for plenty of races including having advised No Comment for Kim Muir Handicap Chase at 25/1. To see all of his selections for the Cheltenham Festival to date sign up for a Premium or Professional Subscription (50% off new MONTHLY Subscriptions until Tuesday 10th March!) and check them out here:
Liam’s Cheltenham Festival 2020 Selections
Marsh Novices Chase
Allaho – has already been mentioned in the Day 2 blog and I’m hoping he runs in the RSA rather than this Marsh Novices Chase. I could understand why they may go for this shorter distance Novice chase instead. He would be able to enjoy himself out the front and allow to use his long stride. I think the softer the going the more likely it is that he runs here.
Easy Game and Faugheen were discussed in the Day 2 blog and I think BOTH will run here instead of the RSA Chase. There’s arguably no reason to step up in distance for the 3m trip and this intermediate 2m4f trip would suit them both. There is very little between them.
Itchy Feet – stepped up on previous form with an impressive win at Sandown last time out when beating Midnight Shadow who had previously been the fortunate winner of the Dipper Novices Chase at Cheltenham and before that he had finished 2nd to Keeper Hill at Haydock. Itchy Feet is 2 from 2 over fences and is a Grade 1 winner and has to be respected but more will be needed here to win this much deeper race.
Mister Fisher – was 2nd on Chase debut behind Torpillo who had already had 2 runs for the season and Mister Fisher arguably needed the run. Stepped up to 2m 4f on his next start, Mister Fisher was a good winner over the consistent Good Boy Bobby before winning again back over 2m at Doncaster where he beat Al Dancer and Lisp. His strength in the finish should give him a good chance here.
Fakir D’Oudaries – is surely going to run in the Arkle which may actually be weaker than this race. If connections did change their mind and ran here, he would certainly be in the mix.
Samcro – appears to have found a new lease of life over fences and was a good winner on Beginner Chase debut at Down Royal but he was fully entitled to win that. He was in the process of running a big race Fairyhouse when he fell 2 out before finding Faugheen too good at Limerick. He can certainly run a big race here but I feel there could be 2 or 3 better than him.
Saint Sonnet – is very much an unknown still. Having made his British debut in late February , he won it well enough without getting any real recognition. His form in France over fences was good and Nicholls wouldn’t be training any old horse. He could run a decent race in against better opposition.
Pertemps Final
Skandiburg – has won 3 of his last 4 with his only defeat coming at Market Rasen where he finished a short head 2nd behind Honest Vic. Stepped up to 3m on his last 2 starts he very much looks like he needs all of this 3m trip and a strong pace will suit. Only 2 of the last 20 winners of this Pertemps Final had won a qualifier though and he may find there are a couple here that have been laid out for the race.
The Storyteller – is a previous Cheltenham Festival winner having won the Brown Advisory Chase back in 2018 off a mark of 147. He can run here off a mark of 149 and he sneaked a qualifying place last time out when a staying on 6th at Leopardstown. This will be his 1st handicap since winning the Brown Advisory Chase that is worth winning (winning the qualifier was not necessary, just finishing in the top 6). He should go very well.
Sire Du Berlais – won this race in 2019 off a 7lb lower mark. He qualified for this race when finishing 4th at Warwick when staying on strongly. He’s clearly been laid out for this race again however there looks to be a few in this race that have as well. Off a 7lb higher mark, things are definitely going to be tougher.
Dream Berry – could quietly be the number 1 for JP McManus in this race. He was last seen finishing 2nd at Sandown behind Go Whatever who went on to finish 3rd in the Grade 3 Handicap Hurdle at Sandown won by Limited Reserve. Dream Berry came there at Sandown looking like he was going to win comfortably but arguably didn’t pick up as expected. This was his first run for 392 days and I think he’s been put away since with this race in mind. He ran at the Cheltenham Festival in 2018 and finished a never nearer 7th behind Blow By Blow, Discorama, Early Doors, Sire Du Berlais, Diese Des Bieffes and Lough Derg Spirit. This was arguably a strong Martin Pipe Hurdle. Jonjo claimed 3lb that day off Dream Berry and taking all this into account, Dream Berry will be 10lb better off with Sire Du Berlais!
Relegate – holds obvious claims here having won the Champion Bumper back in 2018 beating Carefully Selected and Tornado Flyer. She finished 5th in a Grade 1 on her final start for Willie Mullins behind Commander of Fleet. Over a year later, she returned for Colm Murphy and finished 4th in a Pertemps Qualifier when given a patient ride. She should be fitter for that run and is clearly well handicapped. If she retains her ability then she looks very well handicapped.
Kilbricken Storm – has looked like he is ready to win a big race all season but after travelling well, he finds very little and I thought a drop back in trip would suit. They are sticking to their guns here and running over 3m and this former Albert Bartlett winner looks well handicapped. If this has been the plan all season and he’s never been ready in his previous races then he will go very close here.
Tout Est Permis – is a grade 2 winner over fences and is rated much lower over hurdles. His 4th when qualifying for the race was very eyecatching as I thought his jockey took a pull when just about hitting the front. This momentum stopping move arguably meant he finished further back than he should have in 4th. His subsequent 4th at Leopardstown was a good effort and looked like a stronger pace would really suit.
Ryanair Chase
Min – has flittered between 2m and 2m4f for most of his career. He’s has 2 runs this season with a win over 2m4f at Punchestown when beating Hardline and Presenting Percy when staying on strongly. His defeat over 2m behind Chacun Pour Soi was a very good run and this return to 2m4f should suit. His Cheltenham Festival form of 225 over 2m suggests a change of trip is worth it as well.
Frodon – won this race last year when finding more and more under Bryony Frost beating Aso and Road To Respect. Both Min and Riders Onthe Storm are arguably better than the aforementioned Aso and Road To Respect and this is likely to be tougher for Frodon to hold off this pair.
Riders OnThe Storm – has been in great form for Nigel Twiston-Davies with 3 wins from 3 runs including last time out when Cyrname and Traffic Fluide fell. I think he was going to hold of Traffic Fluide and arguably comes here with a great chance. I’ve advised him at a big price than he is now and I’m happy that he should go well.
Stayers Hurdle
Benie Des Dieux – could run here instead of in the Mares Hurdle. I think wherever she runs, she wins. I really do believe Benie Des Dieux beats Paisley Park if running here and she beats Honeysuckle if running in the Mares Hurdle. Benie Des Dieux most recent win at Gowran Park was very impressive and she clearly stays 3m and I think she would be able to go with Paisley Park when he hits his flat spot and use her turn of foot to go past after the last.
Paisley Park – is a machine who only ever does enough. He hits a flat spot in most of his races before finishing strongest of all. If Benie Des Dieux does not run then Paisley Park will take all the beating here. As good as Emitom and Penhill are, Paisley Park is better. Paisley Park beat Sam Spinner, Faugheen and Bapaume in this race last year and the opposition look of similar strength.
Emitom – bounced back to form last time out at Haydock when beating Donna’s Diamond. He’ll need to improve again to get involved here but his Novice form including finishing 2nd to Champ was very good form and he deserves to take his chance here.
Penhill is a twice Cheltenham Festival winner when winning the Albert Bartlett and Stayers Hurdle in 2017 and 2018 respectively. He missed the Festival last year but has to be respected here. He finished a good 2nd last time out behind Cracking Smart when racing against the pace bias and he should be fully tuned up for this race. I think he can be Paisley Park’s biggest danger if the mare does not run.
Brown Advisory Handicap Chase
Simply The Betts – has improved plenty this year seeing his mark rise from 125 up to 149 and he should have more to come. His form is already working out well and it could be even better by the time this race goes off if Imperial Aura has won the Northern Trust Handicap Company. The track and trip suit and he should go well. It could be whether there is a better handicapped horse, potentially 1 or 2 that have been solely targeted at this race all season.
Charmant – really appreciated the step up in trip last time out at Wetherby and although he’s got plenty of chase experience he may be unexposed/ahead of his mark over this trip. He comfortably beat Beau Bay and Protek Des Flos. The latter named has since won at Kelso whilst the 4th placed Kilfilum Cross has finished 2nd at Kempton and is well fancied for the Kim Muir Handicap Chase. The form should work out well and if he wasn’t trained in the North by James Ewart he would be a shorter price than his current 33/1 that he can be backed at. I think he can go well here.
Spiritofthegames – looks to have had this race as his target all season. He finished a good 3rd in this race last year off a 2lb lower mark and has since finished 2nd over CD in December and January beaten a head and ½ length respectively. He should go very well again here this year and it would surprise me and disappoint me if he was out of the Top 5.
Vision Des Flos – is very hard to place and he’s right between handicap and graded company meaning he struggles in the Graded races but carries too much weight in the handicaps. He was sent off just 9/1 for the Coral Cup last year off a mark of 150 but could only finish 18th. He’s been well beaten in Grade 1 and Grade 2 races this year either side of an easy win in a 2 runner Novice chase. The 3lb lower mark will definitely help but he really was disappointing last year in the Coral Cup.
Eamon An Cnoic – finished 4th in this race last year and will be 3lb better off with Spiritofthegames who is half the price of Eamon An Cnoic. He travelled really well into the race and didn’t quite get home against 3 very solid handicappers. I think he can go very close again this year and may be played later than last year having surely been targeted at this race again.
Mares Novice Hurdle
Concertista – was caught on the line in this race last year by stablemate Eglantine Du Seuil and I think she will go very close again. Last year she was having her first run for 620 days and having had more experience this year, I think she goes well again. Her most recent effort when 3rd behind Black Tears was a very good run.
Minella Melody – is 3 from 3 over hurdles including winning a Listed race at Punchestown and Grade 3 at Fairyhouse. She beat Colreevy and Dolcita who could reoppose and whilst they are on better terms, it doesn’t look like it will be enough to reverse the placings. She arguably brings in the strongest form but then so did Epatante who disappointed.
Floressa – ran a great race last time out when 3rd behind Lady Buttons and Irish Roe outside of Novice company. She previously beat Jeremys Flame, Silver Forever and Heaven Help Us. This form looks the best of those from the UK and she is arguably the one to challenge the Irish mares.
Kim Muir Handicap Chase
Deise Aba – took a while to get going over fences until a confidence boosting win at Catterick in a 2 runner affair before winning at Sandown in a good handicap. Cloudy Glen, Le Rocher and Diable De Sivola brought a good level form into the race at Sandown and Deise Aba did very well to win. He looked very strong in the finish and the step up in trip should really suit Deise Aba who could well be a Grand National horse of the future.
Kilfilum Cross – finished 2nd in this race last year behind the well campaigned and gambled Any Second Now who is now well fancied for the Grand National. He disappointed at Ayr afterwards and this season has been geared around coming back for this Kim Muir. He ran very moderately at Wetherby in January before a much better run when 2nd over 3m at Kempton which would have happened too quick for him. This year he can run off a handicap mark of 138 which is 1lb lower than when 2nd in this race and he has to go very close again.
No Comment – finished 5th in this race last year when given a ride that looked like he wasn’t the number 1 JP McManus horse. He’s since been up and down the distances from 2m to 3m and hopefully returns here off a 1lb lower mark than last year. If he can be kept in touch and get round then I would expect him to go very close.
Le Breuil – will need to win this to arguably give himself any chance of getting in the Grand National and Jamie Codd has been booked to ride. Jamie has a good record with Le Breuil and he won at the festival last year in the 4m race. He should be strong in the finish and would be running off just 145 which is 5lb lower than when he ran a good race at Aintree for 7th where Kimberlite Candy, Walk In The Mill, Alpha Des Obeaux and Definitely Red all ran. I think he goes very close.
Cheltenham Festival Analysis
Cheltenham Day 1 – Cheltenham Day 1
Cheltenham Day 2 – Cheltenham Day 2
Cheltenham Day 3 – This Blog
Cheltenham Day 4 – Cheltenham Day 4