Day 3 at York, and the feature is the Nunthorpe, the fastest 5f of the season. It may not be quite as rapid as usual this year, mind. We have had rain, it is good to soft as we write, and more could come and make it softer still.
Our NAP competition is free for everybody to enter all week. The first race is free for everyone to read, as always.
1:50 handicap: taking on our own Top Rated
An unusual one to start, because we are going to leave our own Top Rated alone. Welbury heads our ratings for the 1:50 and posted a genuinely eyecatching AV figure last time, so this is not a knock on the horse.
It is the context we do not like. Edward Bethell's overall strike rate is 16.39%, but at York it is 7.95%, less than half. The sire's progeny are 9.19% generally and 5.95% at this track. Neither number is fatal on its own. Together, on a horse who has been raised 11lb for his last win, they are enough to make us look elsewhere.
So we are with Blue Courvoisier (Clive Cox, Rossa Ryan), who is our RTR 3 and who has an eyecatching last run of his own.
He was 3rd at Goodwood on 1 August at 10/3, beaten just 3/4 of a length over 1m1f. What makes that run worth more than the bare placing is how the race worked out for our figures. Our Top Rated that day, Crest Of Fire, won it. Our RTR 3, Boyfriend, was 2nd, beaten a neck. Blue Courvoisier was our RTR 6, and he was 3rd.
When a race falls out in that order the horses behind tend to go on and do things, and this one has since moved up from RTR 6 to RTR 3 in our reckoning. That is us saying he has a better chance this time, not a worse one.
The trip is the other reason we like him. He drops back a shade here, and he already has a win over 7f173y at Carlisle to his name off 83, so the distance is no issue. With cut in the ground this will ride longer than the bare 7f192y, which brings the stamina he showed over 1m1f into play rather than leaving it behind.
The course numbers back him too, and they are the mirror image of Welbury's. Clive Cox is 14.08% overall and 11.50% at York, so barely a drop. The sire is 15.34% generally and 16.07% at York, actually better here than anywhere. On our AV figures he is rated 2nd in the race on both the 10 run and the 3 run measure.
He has the big field handicap experience, he is still lightly raced at 5 starts, and he is unquestionably going the right way. We think there is a big run in him.