Day 1 of the Ebor Festival is done. One of our selections won, one of the races we took a view on went against us, and in the opener we were beaten by something we do not think should have beaten us. Here is how it went, race by race, with our preview alongside for anyone who wants to see what we said beforehand.
1:50 Hong Kong Jockey Club World Pool Handicap: the wrong ride, we think
Air Force One won it at 13/2, with our Top Rated Corolla Point second at 5/1 and our selection Toca Madera third, also at 5/1 and joint favourite. The Man was 7th at 6/1.
We were very disappointed with the ride on Toca Madera, and we said so on X within minutes of the race rather than waiting to see how it looked in hindsight.
The horse was last seen finishing strongly for a never nearer 5th in the Stewards' Cup at Goodwood over 6f. Dropping back to 5f, our worry was that he would be outpaced. He was not outpaced at all. He travelled as well as anything for most of the race.
Knowing the horse stays 6f, that is exactly the profile that wants sending about its business early. Daniel Tudhope should have gone a good deal sooner than he did. Instead he waited, and he let the others come to him.
Kick on and get a couple of lengths clear in that situation and you demoralise the horses behind and, just as importantly, the jockeys on them. They stop riding to win and start riding for a place. Instead we allowed the winner and the runner up to build momentum, and by the time our horse was asked, both of those were already hard at work and rolling. Toca Madera did not pick up.
Go earlier and bring his 6f stamina into it and we think he wins. People will argue about kicking clear and getting caught, and that is a fair argument to have, but we would far rather see that than a horse sat still for too much of the race. Plenty agreed with us afterwards.
The Man was mildly disappointing in 7th, though it reads better than it looks. He travelled nicely and got a good run of the race over on the far side, but did not pick up when it mattered, and the horse he was tracking faded badly. Call it a fair effort rather than a bad one.
The frustrating part is the handicapping. We were second in this race last year with The Man off 92. The horse who finished 3rd that day off 84 was Air Force One, and he has come back up 7lb to 91 and won it. The Man came back down 3lb to 89 and was 7th. That is a 10lb swing between the 2 of them in 12 months, and we ended up on the wrong side of it.