Handicap Drops for Hurdlers – 1 mistake and dropped 2lb!
Brinkley dropped 2lb to 136 after finishing 9th on his seasonal return at Haydock where he tried to make all the running which is always tough. The drop of 2lb means he’s now 12lb lower than when being sent off 16/1 and only beaten 16 1/4 lengths in a Pertemps Final. A Pertemps Final that I think was a good one as well. Brocade Racing like to try and plan races in advance with their horses (could have a big run from Remastered in the Coral Gold Cup Handicap Chase) and they could be targeting a return with Brinkley to the Pertemps Final. His handicap mark of 136 would see him get in the Pertemps Final now but he does need to qualify first. There’s a Pertemps Qualifier at Wincanton on Monday 26th December which he could win before being saved for the Festival. Wincanton looks ideal having proven he runs well here when winning on his only start here back in January 2021.
Cormier dropped 2lb to 136 after finishing 6th in a messy Greatwood Hurdle which was silly as there were so many omitted hurdles that it became more like a flat race and whilst he has form on the flat, I believe he would have preferred the hurdles having performed so well when winning at Cheltenham before over hurdles. I think being dropped 2lb is kind to him however and he could well be back to Cheltenham on Friday 9th December for a 2m Handicap Hurdle. He may however be looked after with the Morebattle Hurdle in mind again. The Morebattle Hurdle is worth 50k (similar to winning the County Hurdle and probably easier) and he won that race off a mark of 134 and he’s sure to go well again if he waited for that race off a mark of 136.
Severance dropped 2lb to 127 after finishing 10th in the Greatwood Hurdle. He was inconvenienced by hurdles being omitted in the Morebattle Hurdle at Kelso back in March and with hurdles being omitted in this race, he was up against it and his race was completely over after the first hurdle when making a bad mistake. That was arguably his first run that was disappointing since failing to see out the 2m5f trip at Cheltenham in November 2021. Dropping him 2lb for essentially making a mistake at the first was therefore kind and he is surely going to come back to Cheltenham on Friday 9th December for the 2m Handicap before being aimed at the feature handicaps again. His 127 mark does mean he could be vulnerable to missing out the feature handicaps so winning a slightly easier race in early December looks a good plan.
Handicap Drops for Chasers – 2 for the Welsh National
A strange one for me here as I think Frero Banbou is being aimed at a return to the Grand Annual where he finished a never nearer 3rd off the same 141 mark that he is now down to. Last season he was always held up before finishing strongly and didn’t get there in time at Cheltenham when 3rd. This season however he’s been ridden forward and has still run well for 2nd and 4th off 142 but has been weakening late on instead of finishing best of all. I think it’s harder to win a race where you are essentially hanging on instead of finishing really strongly and relying on getting your timing right to make the challenge. His 2 efforts this season have also been on good ground (reportedly very fast at Ascot) and yet his best 2 efforts in his last few runs have been when winning at Lingfield on Heavy going and finishing 3rd at the Festival on heavy going. He could continue to be carefully campaigned with the Grand Annual in mind!
I think Frero Banbou is being aimed at the Grand Annual, I REALLY think West Cork is being aimed at the Grand Annual. Dan Skelton has a good track record of trying to win the handicaps and West Cork finished 4th in the County Hurdle last year not beaten far by State Man whilst he has also won a Greatwood Hurdle so has the Cheltenham form in the bag. This season over fences he has finished 2nd to Stage Star (Grade 1 winner over hurdles) and then 3rd to Jonbon and Monmiral (both Grade 1 winners over hurdles). That should 100% confirm to connections he won’t be winning an Arkle or similar Grade 1 events at the Cheltenham Festival and surely he will be carefully campaigned (continuing to run in Grade 1 and Grade 2 Novice Chases) and should turn back up at the Cheltenham off a similar mark to what he is now. This current 141 mark is the exact mark he finished 4th in the County Hurdle off.
Monmiral is the LEAST likely of the 3 (Frero Banbou, West Cork and himself) to be aimed for the Grand Annual. His 148 mark could see him be competitive in my opinion in a feature handicap but the Grade 1 winner over hurdles is surely going to be aimed higher. Despite finishing 2nd to Jonbon and being comfortably beaten, there could be reasons why he is worth a bet in the Arkle. Jonbon is 2/1 favourite whilst Monmiral is 40/1, it’s very possible that Monmiral has been beaten here by the future Arkle winner and finishing 7 lengths behind could be good enough to finish 2nd in the Arkle. If we also look at the Arkle market, most of those in between Monmiral and Jonbon are Irish trained and may well not come over until the festival. With that in mind, Paul could just need to avoid taking on Jonbon again to find a winnable Novice chase or 2 with Monmiral and he could easily be 16/1 come the Festival. He’s also only 5 whereas Jonbon is 6 and there may still be more improvement to come from Monmiral.
For Pleasure dropped 2lb for finishing 4th of 4 over hurdles in a race where he again had no chance against Brewin’Upastorm and Goshen. He was also beaten 3 3/4 lengths by Uhtred but again was 8lb wrong with him. He simply had no chance in this race and he needs to go back handicapping soon. I can’t believe a horse sent off 7/1 for a Grand Annual off a mark of 138 can’t win a handicap soon off a mark of 131. I would be keen to see him run at Doncaster over 2m in a Handicap chase on Friday 9th December. He would surely go very close in a race like this!
Musical Slave was a my eyecatcher of the weekend (see video below) and to see him dropped 2lb was an added bonus. He’s number 35 so it is a bit nervous about whether he gets in (20 run) the Welsh National but if he does then I expect him to go very close. His ride at Haydock looked very gentle and it looked like it was simply a fitness run.
Truckers Lodge is my 2nd one from the weekend for the Welsh National. He’s run in 3 Welsh National’s before and finished 2nd off 139 (+3lb claimer), 7th off 155 (+3lb claimer) and 3rd off 150. 3rd Last year off a mark of 150 and he could return this year off a 9lb lower mark. He’s also likely to be ridden again by Freddie Gingell who can take ANOTHER 10lb off. That would mean he would be running off an effective 131 (19lb lower than when 3rd last year). The Welsh National this year is being run in memory of Kim Gingell (Freddie’s Mum who sadly passed away from Cancer aged just 43). You can be sure Paul will getting Freddie and Truckers Lodge there in the best possible condition. They are 33/1 to win currently!
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