Liam was tasked with finding just 1 horse to take out of each race from the Cheltenham Festival. Check out his Horses To Follow from Day 1 of the Cheltenham Festival below. He’ll be looking at them in more depth in upcoming blogs.
Supreme Novices Hurdle – Allart
Allart hadn’t had a competitive run until a very good 5th place today behind what I think were very good horses. I believe that Shishkin will be a leading player for the Arkle next season whilst Abacadabras will go close in a Champion Hurdle and these would have been obvious candidates. Chantry House was unbeaten for Nicky Henderson leading into the race and had already achieved a decent level of form. Asterion Forlonge is clearly talented but unlikely to go left handed again having jumped out to his right again. The front 4 I believe are all 150+ horses (3 already were). Allart was rated 142 today and I’m hoping the handicapper leaves him alone as he could be very interesting off that mark in something like the Greatwood Hurdle. Today was arguably his first proper race over hurdles (fell at 2nd on 1st start and won 2 races at Ludlow and Doncaster at 8/11 and 1/5 respectively). With this strong pace and much better field race under his belt, he should improve for that going forward.
Note: Shishkin was in my Horses To Follow with the Supreme Novices as his main target.
One To Follow: Allart – check handicap mark
Arkle Chase – Fakir D’Oudaries
Fakir D’Oudaries has run another good race at Cheltenham for 2nd having finished 4th last year in the Supreme Novices Hurdle as a 4 year old. We must remember he is still only 5 years old and I’m a big believer in longevity comes with starting at the shorter distances. Having run here in the Arkle as a 5 year old, I think next season he can continue improving and a step up in distance will really suit. The Ryanair looks the obvious target for him next season. I think we will see him in the Ryanair Novice Chase at Punchestown next, over 2m again before he steps back up in trip next season.
One To Follow: Fakir D’oudaries – Ryanair 2021
Ultima Handicap Chase – Cepage
Cepage finished behind all the right horses here with the front 4 in the betting making up the first 4 places and I think it is a race which will work out well. Cepage could only finish 7th however this isn’t a true reflection of how well he ran (for most of the way). He was stepping up in trip here to 3m for the 1st time in his career and it came on testing ground and it wasn’t until the 2nd last that he started getting tired. He travelled and jumped well enough up to the 2 ½ mile trip to suggest that he was still well handicapped and in hindsight would have surely been better in the Brown Advisory Handicap Chase.
His Cheltenham form is very good with a win already to his name this season in January with his overall form reading 424617 now at the course. He may be a long term plot for the Brown Advisory Handicap Chase (arguably has pounds to play with) however I would like to see him take his chance in the Topham Handicap Chase at Aintree next. A big pot and he jumps well suggesting the National fences wouldn’t be an issue whilst the drop back in distance should really suit.
One To Follow: Cepage – Topham Handicap Chase
Champion Hurdle – Epatante
I thought this was a lot harder to be honest to find something of interest as I felt most had run their race and nothing really caught my eye. I would argue the ever improving Epatante should be the one as I still think there is more to come. She picked up really well from the last having travelled well and she’s still lightly raced. If Buveur D’Air comes back next season, could we see Epatante stepping up in distance to run against Honeysuckle and Benie Des Dieux in the Mares Hurdle?
Out of the box: Epatante was a very impressive winner of the Champion Hurdle and you have to be looking out for French Crusader next time. He was having his 1st run for 387 days for Nicky Henderson when not beaten far by Epatante at Newbury on his only start of the season. He may be injury prone but worth noting.
One To Follow: Epatante – maybe a Mares Hurdle
Mares Hurdle – Cap Soleil
Cap Soleil – This is a tough one as well as the front pair were clearly the best with the others in behind likely to keep bumping into one of the front pair. I’m taking a bit of a chance on Cap Soleil for Fergal O’Brien as my one to follow from this race. She’s been well beaten but has run on to be beaten just a neck by Stormy Ireland (153) and beat Lady Buttons (150). If this had been a handicap she would have been getting 38lb from the winner, 32lb from 2nd, 21lb from 3rd, 22lb from 4th and 23lb from 5th.
After running in this race last year she ran back at Cheltenham in a Mares Handicap but disappointed again finishing 10th when sent off 11/2 joint 2nd favourite. She may return again for this race as she would be at least 4lb lower than last year and that was only her 2nd start of the season compared to it being her 3rd this season.
I think she would be worth a try back over 2m as her form over 2m reads 11212 with the defeats coming to Dame Rose in a Listed Hurdle and Laurina in the Mares Novice at Cheltenham.
If connections are keen to keep her over this 2 ½ mile ish trip then I would be targeting something a bit different next season and target the Challenger Series. She could take in Ludlow and Sandown on her way before running in the final (if she hasn’t won and raised her mark too high).
One To Follow: Cap Soleil – Mares Challenger Series Final 2021
Northern Trust Handicap Chase – Galvin
Galvin – Similar to the Supreme Novices, I think this race will work out really well with the right horses towards the fore including Imperial Aura who was sent off the 4/1 joint favourite with the 2nd placed Galvin. Galvin was subject to a late gamble and he has run a great race and not beaten far despite not getting a clear run whilst Imperial Aura was kicking for home.
Davy has got him close but just couldn’t find enough to get past Imperial Aura and I would be suggesting he’s bumped into one. He’s only 6 and this was his handicap debut and I think he can be found a race to win next time out. This looks to me to be the Novice Handicap Chase at Punchestown at the beginning of May. I think there will still be more to come.
One To Follow – Galvin – Novice Handicap Chase at Punchestown
National Hunt Challenge Chase – Ravenhill
Ravenhill – was suggested by Gordon Elliott as being one horse that he felt would go really close in a handicap (Kim Muir) but they changed their mind and ran in this longer race instead and it proved an inspired decision. He travelled really well under a very quiet ride by Jamie Codd and always looked like he was going to pick up the brave Lord Du Mesnil.
Ravenhill would have been 11lb better off in a handicap and as such the handicapper is likely to give him a hike however the Irish Handicapper can be very lenient when adjusting marks and he may not give him as much as he arguably should do. They’ve already said that the Irish National is where he next runs and that looks a great target. If the handicapper raises him any less than 8lb then I would be very keen on him for this Irish National. This was his first run over further than 3m and he showed he clearly stays this trip very well.
One To Follow – Ravenhill – Irish Grand National
