The declarations are out for Saturday's Ebor, so rather than sit on our hands until the weekend we are putting our 2 up now, while the prices are still what they are. Full analysis of Saturday's card will follow as usual.
Hopewell Rock: the one we have been on all season
Hopewell Rock will surprise nobody who reads us. We have been on him repeatedly, and the record of that is all published.
It started at Newmarket in May, where he was 3rd over 1m4f off 101 at 9/2, staying on. We took that as a horse who wanted further and was going the right way.
He was our selection at Ascot in June and he disappointed, well backed at 3/1 and only 6th. 2 things were true about that run: he did not get the clearest of passages, and he looked like he wanted a longer trip than the 1m3f211y he got.
So we put him up again next time, and said plainly that we still thought he was progressive. He proved it at Goodwood on 1 August, winning over 1m6f at 5/1 off 101, and to our eye winning it comfortably. The runner up was staying on at the finish but he was never getting there.
That runner up was Small Fry, and this is where it gets interesting, because we had put him up that day as well. In our Goodwood day 5 preview we put up both of them, and they came home first and second.
We then went back in on Small Fry in our York day 1 preview, and he duly won over 2m yesterday, well backed at 2/1. He made it harder than it needed to be by hitting the front too soon; leave it later and he wins with plenty in hand.
So we put up the first 2 home in that Goodwood race, then backed the runner up again next time out and he won that too. We like this form a great deal, and we are entitled to: we have now been right about it twice.
So Hopewell Rock beat a subsequent comfortable winner, and he carries a 4lb penalty for it. That is the price of the form standing up, and we are happy to pay it.
Emit: what Joseph O'Brien has told us by running him
Our second selection is Emit, ridden by Ryan Moore for Joseph O'Brien, and the reasoning starts with which horse the yard chose to run.
Go back to that Goodwood race. Joseph O'Brien had 2 chasing Hopewell Rock home: Small Fry 2nd off 92 and Aeronautic 3rd off 97, sent off the 11/4 favourite and desperately unlucky. Small Fry has since won at York. We are confident Aeronautic wins soon as well.
Now, Small Fry was never getting into the Ebor off 92, so that one decides itself. But Aeronautic off 97 absolutely would have got in, and Joseph O'Brien has chosen not to run him in the most valuable handicap of the week. The horse he has entered instead, and his only runner in the race, is Emit.
That is a yard with a clear view of 3 horses telling you which of the 3 it rates most highly for this. We think that is worth listening to.
The form backs it. Emit was last seen finishing 4th at Ascot in June behind Opportunity, and he finished in front of Hopewell Rock that day, who was back in 6th. He was unlucky there too.
Then look at what he has done over 1m6f, which is the trip he wants and the Ebor trip. At Navan in April he was 3rd behind Scandinavia off a mark of 111. At the Curragh in April he was 4th behind Layfayette, again off 111 and sent off the 5/4 favourite. Neither of those is handicap company. That is Group and Listed form.
He was also unlucky in an Ebor trial at the Curragh in June under Ryan Moore, so the rider knows exactly what he has underneath him on Saturday.
The mark is the whole story. He started this season rated 111. He gets into the Ebor off 104. Say at the start of the year that this horse would line up in the Ebor off 104 and most people would have taken your hand off. His last couple of handicap runs each came with an excuse, the handicapper has come down to meet him, and the yard has picked him ahead of 2 stablemates whose form has already been franked.
Hopewell Rock and Emit. We will be back with the full card on Saturday.