Draw Bias · Left-handed · Turf

York draw bias

What each part of the draw has really been worth at York, in lengths against the field average, measured from every Flat race here since 2014. Positive figures finish closer to the winner than the field does; negative ones give lengths away at the stalls.

The strongest measured effect: Low-middle draws have cost 1.10L per run over 16f to 19f, across 179 runs.

The whole picture, every trip

Every stalled run at York together. The trip tables below tell the finer story: a bias at 5f can vanish, or flip, at a mile.

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	+0.44L	3,409
Low-middle	+0.54L	3,416
Middle	+0.10L	3,387
Middle-high	-0.41L	3,404
High	-0.67L	3,408

Over 5f to 6f

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	+0.76L	1,388
Low-middle	+0.68L	1,384
Middle	-0.07L	1,370
Middle-high	-0.46L	1,383
High	-0.90L	1,383

On firm ground

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	+0.46L	497
Low-middle	+0.91L	493
Middle	-0.87L	481
Middle-high	-0.25L	493
High	-0.27L	496

On good ground

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	+0.83L	774
Low-middle	+0.54L	769
Middle	+0.33L	777
Middle-high	-0.53L	768
High	-1.18L	769

On soft ground

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	+1.55L	117
Low-middle	+0.60L	122
Middle	+0.58L	112
Middle-high	-0.90L	122
High	-1.78L	118

Fields of 8-11 runners

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	+0.63L	354
Low-middle	+0.63L	300
Middle	-0.50L	338
Middle-high	-0.30L	300
High	-0.44L	350

Fields of 12-15 runners

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	+0.77L	319
Low-middle	-0.13L	329
Middle	+0.31L	297
Middle-high	-0.48L	327
High	-0.44L	320

Fields of 16+ runners

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	+0.81L	653
Low-middle	+1.18L	662
Middle	+0.02L	653
Middle-high	-0.59L	662
High	-1.43L	651

Over 7f to 8f

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	+0.20L	899
Low-middle	+0.48L	901
Middle	+0.04L	883
Middle-high	-0.06L	896
High	-0.67L	901

On firm ground

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	+0.43L	295
Low-middle	-0.04L	296
Middle	+0.18L	294
Middle-high	-0.16L	295
High	-0.40L	297

On good ground

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	+0.08L	512
Low-middle	+0.91L	513
Middle	-0.02L	499
Middle-high	-0.27L	511
High	-0.70L	513

Fields of 8-11 runners

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	+0.56L	216
Low-middle	-0.20L	196
Middle	+0.21L	212
Middle-high	-0.12L	197
High	-0.47L	216

Fields of 12-15 runners

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	+0.14L	215
Low-middle	-0.14L	217
Middle	-1.37L	186
Middle-high	+0.88L	214
High	+0.31L	216

Fields of 16+ runners

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	-0.04L	430
Low-middle	+1.22L	436
Middle	+0.64L	432
Middle-high	-0.47L	433
High	-1.36L	431

Over 9f to 11f

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	+0.41L	491
Low-middle	+0.73L	498
Middle	+0.38L	490
Middle-high	-0.65L	494
High	-0.88L	494

On firm ground

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	+0.20L	160
Low-middle	+1.10L	166
Middle	-0.11L	167
Middle-high	-0.90L	166
High	-0.29L	162

On good ground

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	+0.56L	284
Low-middle	+0.86L	289
Middle	+0.80L	280
Middle-high	-1.04L	284
High	-1.19L	285

Fields of 8-11 runners

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	+0.87L	123
Low-middle	-0.56L	101
Middle	+0.96L	116
High	-0.30L	124

Fields of 12-15 runners

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	+0.29L	146
Low-middle	+1.12L	146
Middle	+0.84L	136
Middle-high	-1.43L	145
High	-0.75L	148

Fields of 16+ runners

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	+0.24L	157
Low-middle	+1.12L	159
Middle	+0.07L	153
Middle-high	+0.07L	160
High	-1.51L	157

Over 12f to 15f

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	+0.31L	458
Low-middle	+0.70L	454
Middle	+0.35L	477
Middle-high	-0.98L	453
High	-0.40L	459

On firm ground

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	+0.39L	181
Low-middle	-0.60L	178
Middle	+1.09L	191
Middle-high	-0.25L	177
High	-0.69L	182

On good ground

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	+0.25L	244
Low-middle	+1.33L	243
Middle	+0.03L	247
Middle-high	-1.41L	243
High	-0.21L	244

Fields of 8-11 runners

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	-0.15L	154
Low-middle	+0.84L	134
Middle	+1.10L	155
Middle-high	-1.87L	132
High	-0.09L	156

Fields of 12-15 runners

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	+1.90L	112
Low-middle	+1.30L	108
Middle	-1.43L	100
Middle-high	-2.51L	111
High	+0.61L	111

Fields of 16+ runners

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	-0.51L	142
Low-middle	+0.35L	147
Middle	+0.70L	148
Middle-high	+1.44L	146
High	-2.06L	142

Over 16f to 19f

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	-0.44L	173
Low-middle	-1.10L	179
Middle	+0.23L	167
Middle-high	+0.35L	178
High	+1.01L	171

On good ground

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	-1.22L	107
Low-middle	-1.78L	113
Middle	+1.28L	105
Middle-high	+0.70L	113
High	+1.11L	106

Run styles from each part of the draw

Win rates for horses ridden in each early-position style from each part of the draw at York. A front runner drawn low and one drawn wide are not the same bet, and no course average says so.

Draw	Led	Prominent	Midfield	Held up
Low	14.8% of 446	8.8% of 1,180	9.4% of 877	6.5% of 860
Low-middle	15.7% of 439	10.0% of 1,053	9.8% of 910	8.4% of 972
Middle	13.7% of 408	7.4% of 1,047	9.3% of 820	6.5% of 1,070
Middle-high	11.1% of 306	6.8% of 991	7.0% of 767	6.1% of 1,309
High	9.7% of 319	6.9% of 925	5.8% of 638	4.1% of 1,476

How to read these figures

The draw is read as a rank among the stalls actually occupied, cut into five bands from Low to High, so an 8-runner field and a 20-runner field compare honestly. Fallers and horses pulled up carry no beaten distance and are left out of their race’s average, races with fewer than 5 stalled runners are skipped, and a figure is only published where at least 100 runs sit behind it. The full method is on the draw bias index.

This is on every York racecard

Premium members get the draw read per stall on the card itself, next to the ratings, the pace map and each horse’s own running style. Five days free, no card.

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