Draw Bias · Left-handed · Turf

York draw bias

What each part of the draw has really been worth at York, in lengths against the field average, measured from every Flat race here since 2014. Positive figures finish closer to the winner than the field does; negative ones give lengths away at the stalls.

The strongest measured effect: Low-middle draws have cost 1.10L per run over 16f to 19f, across 179 runs.

The whole picture, every trip

Every stalled run at York together. The trip tables below tell the finer story: a bias at 5f can vanish, or flip, at a mile.

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	+0.42L	3,448
Low-middle	+0.53L	3,455
Middle	+0.11L	3,423
Middle-high	-0.36L	3,443
High	-0.70L	3,447

Over 5f to 6f

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	+0.75L	1,400
Low-middle	+0.67L	1,395
Middle	-0.07L	1,382
Middle-high	-0.46L	1,394
High	-0.89L	1,395

On firm ground

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	+0.46L	497
Low-middle	+0.91L	493
Middle	-0.87L	481
Middle-high	-0.25L	493
High	-0.27L	496

On good ground

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	+0.83L	784
Low-middle	+0.52L	778
Middle	+0.33L	787
Middle-high	-0.52L	777
High	-1.17L	779

On soft ground

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	+1.45L	119
Low-middle	+0.64L	124
Middle	+0.56L	114
Middle-high	-0.95L	124
High	-1.66L	120

Fields of 8-11 runners

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	+0.61L	358
Low-middle	+0.64L	303
Middle	-0.50L	342
Middle-high	-0.32L	303
High	-0.41L	354

Fields of 12-15 runners

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	+0.82L	322
Low-middle	-0.18L	332
Middle	+0.35L	299
Middle-high	-0.53L	330
High	-0.41L	323

Fields of 16+ runners

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	+0.79L	657
Low-middle	+1.19L	666
Middle	+0.01L	658
Middle-high	-0.56L	666
High	-1.44L	655

Over 7f to 8f

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	+0.14L	914
Low-middle	+0.49L	917
Middle	+0.01L	897
Middle-high	+0.03L	912
High	-0.67L	916

On firm ground

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	+0.43L	295
Low-middle	-0.04L	296
Middle	+0.18L	294
Middle-high	-0.16L	295
High	-0.40L	297

On good ground

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	-0.04L	523
Low-middle	+0.91L	525
Middle	-0.01L	509
Middle-high	-0.15L	523
High	-0.71L	524

Fields of 8-11 runners

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	+0.56L	216
Low-middle	-0.20L	196
Middle	+0.21L	212
Middle-high	-0.12L	197
High	-0.47L	216

Fields of 12-15 runners

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	+0.00L	218
Low-middle	-0.07L	220
Middle	-1.34L	188
Middle-high	+0.97L	217
High	+0.25L	219

Fields of 16+ runners

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	-0.10L	441
Low-middle	+1.15L	448
Middle	+0.55L	443
Middle-high	-0.37L	445
High	-1.25L	442

Over 9f to 11f

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	+0.43L	499
Low-middle	+0.59L	505
Middle	+0.45L	497
Middle-high	-0.55L	501
High	-0.91L	502

On firm ground

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	+0.20L	160
Low-middle	+1.10L	166
Middle	-0.11L	167
Middle-high	-0.90L	166
High	-0.29L	162

On good ground

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	+0.59L	288
Low-middle	+0.82L	293
Middle	+0.79L	283
Middle-high	-0.93L	288
High	-1.26L	289

Fields of 8-11 runners

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	+0.87L	123
Low-middle	-0.56L	101
Middle	+0.96L	116
High	-0.30L	124

Fields of 12-15 runners

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	+0.29L	146
Low-middle	+1.12L	146
Middle	+0.84L	136
Middle-high	-1.43L	145
High	-0.75L	148

Fields of 16+ runners

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	+0.29L	165
Low-middle	+0.65L	166
Middle	+0.29L	160
Middle-high	+0.33L	167
High	-1.57L	165

Over 12f to 15f

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	+0.27L	462
Low-middle	+0.75L	459
Middle	+0.42L	480
Middle-high	-0.91L	458
High	-0.55L	463

On firm ground

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	+0.39L	181
Low-middle	-0.60L	178
Middle	+1.09L	191
Middle-high	-0.25L	177
High	-0.69L	182

On good ground

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	+0.18L	248
Low-middle	+1.41L	248
Middle	+0.18L	250
Middle-high	-1.27L	248
High	-0.50L	248

Fields of 8-11 runners

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	-0.11L	156
Low-middle	+0.96L	136
Middle	+1.10L	156
Middle-high	-1.61L	134
High	-0.43L	158

Fields of 12-15 runners

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	+1.67L	114
Low-middle	+1.34L	111
Middle	-1.05L	102
Middle-high	-2.46L	114
High	+0.43L	113

Fields of 16+ runners

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	-0.51L	142
Low-middle	+0.35L	147
Middle	+0.70L	148
Middle-high	+1.44L	146
High	-2.06L	142

Over 16f to 19f

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	-0.44L	173
Low-middle	-1.10L	179
Middle	+0.23L	167
Middle-high	+0.35L	178
High	+1.01L	171

On good ground

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	-1.22L	107
Low-middle	-1.78L	113
Middle	+1.28L	105
Middle-high	+0.70L	113
High	+1.11L	106

Run styles from each part of the draw

Win rates for horses ridden in each early-position style from each part of the draw at York. A front runner drawn low and one drawn wide are not the same bet, and no course average says so.

Draw	Led	Prominent	Midfield	Held up
Low	14.6% of 453	8.9% of 1,190	9.3% of 890	6.6% of 869
Low-middle	15.9% of 447	10.0% of 1,057	9.7% of 929	8.4% of 980
Middle	13.6% of 413	7.4% of 1,056	9.1% of 835	6.5% of 1,077
Middle-high	11.3% of 310	6.7% of 993	7.1% of 789	6.1% of 1,320
High	9.9% of 322	6.9% of 934	5.7% of 647	4.1% of 1,494

How to read these figures

The draw is read as a rank among the stalls actually occupied, cut into five bands from Low to High, so an 8-runner field and a 20-runner field compare honestly. Fallers and horses pulled up carry no beaten distance and are left out of their race’s average, races with fewer than 5 stalled runners are skipped, and a figure is only published where at least 100 runs sit behind it. The full method is on the draw bias index.

This is on every York racecard

Premium members get the draw read per stall on the card itself, next to the ratings, the pace map and each horse’s own running style. Five days free, no card.

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