Draw Bias · Left-handed · Turf

Yarmouth draw bias

What each part of the draw has really been worth at Yarmouth, in lengths against the field average, measured from every Flat race here since 2014. Positive figures finish closer to the winner than the field does; negative ones give lengths away at the stalls.

The strongest measured effect: High draws have cost 0.98L per run over 9f to 11f, across 419 runs.

The whole picture, every trip

Every stalled run at Yarmouth together. The trip tables below tell the finer story: a bias at 5f can vanish, or flip, at a mile.

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	+0.17L	2,688
Low-middle	+0.32L	2,707
Middle	+0.25L	2,799
Middle-high	-0.16L	2,709
High	-0.59L	2,681

Over 5f to 6f

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	+0.23L	852
Low-middle	+0.34L	841
Middle	+0.15L	900
Middle-high	-0.11L	839
High	-0.62L	846

On firm ground

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	-0.26L	463
Low-middle	+0.34L	473
Middle	+0.07L	484
Middle-high	+0.27L	472
High	-0.44L	459

On good ground

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	+0.59L	297
Low-middle	+0.64L	280
Middle	+0.50L	314
Middle-high	-0.77L	279
High	-1.00L	297

On soft ground

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Middle	-0.58L	102

Fields of 2-7 runners

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	+0.02L	224
Low-middle	+0.10L	301
Middle	-0.08L	309
Middle-high	+0.30L	299
High	-0.44L	219

Fields of 8-11 runners

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	+0.15L	479
Low-middle	+0.72L	383
Middle	+0.40L	448
Middle-high	-0.46L	383
High	-0.73L	476

Fields of 12-15 runners

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	+0.81L	143
Low-middle	-0.27L	151
Middle	-0.18L	135
Middle-high	+0.10L	151
High	-0.45L	145

Over 7f to 8f

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	+0.15L	1,128
Low-middle	+0.23L	1,136
Middle	+0.19L	1,166
Middle-high	-0.15L	1,141
High	-0.43L	1,127

On firm ground

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	-0.09L	577
Low-middle	-0.04L	590
Middle	-0.06L	602
Middle-high	+0.29L	594
High	-0.10L	579

On good ground

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	+0.34L	395
Low-middle	+0.43L	400
Middle	+0.29L	402
Middle-high	-0.45L	401
High	-0.61L	393

On soft ground

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	+0.55L	156
Low-middle	+0.80L	146
Middle	+0.89L	162
Middle-high	-1.07L	146
High	-1.23L	155

Fields of 2-7 runners

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	+0.36L	215
Low-middle	+0.27L	307
Middle	+0.00L	288
Middle-high	-0.02L	307
High	-0.74L	214

Fields of 8-11 runners

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	+0.08L	628
Low-middle	+0.23L	527
Middle	+0.26L	607
Middle-high	-0.15L	527
High	-0.39L	625

Fields of 12-15 runners

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	+0.13L	273
Low-middle	+0.37L	290
Middle	+0.21L	255
Middle-high	-0.31L	295
High	-0.38L	276

Over 9f to 11f

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	+0.45L	418
Low-middle	+0.24L	420
Middle	+0.49L	421
Middle-high	-0.20L	419
High	-0.98L	419

On firm ground

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	+0.19L	222
Low-middle	+0.08L	227
Middle	+0.31L	223
Middle-high	-0.53L	227
High	-0.04L	221

On good ground

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	+0.57L	155
Low-middle	+0.86L	153
Middle	+1.04L	152
Middle-high	-0.66L	152
High	-1.78L	156

Fields of 2-7 runners

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low-middle	+0.14L	121
Middle	+1.60L	124
Middle-high	-0.52L	120

Fields of 8-11 runners

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	+0.32L	223
Low-middle	+0.39L	190
Middle	+0.23L	201
Middle-high	-0.27L	190
High	-0.63L	223

Fields of 12-15 runners

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	+0.95L	102
Low-middle	-0.04L	106
Middle-high	+0.52L	106
High	-1.03L	103

Over 12f to 15f

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	-0.31L	289
Low-middle	+0.70L	309
Middle	+0.50L	311
Middle-high	-0.34L	309
High	-0.62L	288

On firm ground

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	-0.03L	136
Low-middle	+0.29L	156
Middle	+0.24L	158
Middle-high	-0.69L	156
High	+0.20L	136

On good ground

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	-0.20L	111
Low-middle	+1.23L	110
Middle	+0.62L	115
Middle-high	+0.10L	110
High	-1.79L	110

Fields of 2-7 runners

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low-middle	+0.89L	131
Middle	+1.63L	127
Middle-high	-1.67L	131

Fields of 8-11 runners

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	+0.78L	128
Low-middle	-0.43L	107
Middle	-1.06L	118
Middle-high	+0.92L	107
High	-0.21L	126

Run styles from each part of the draw

Win rates for horses ridden in each early-position style from each part of the draw at Yarmouth. A front runner drawn low and one drawn wide are not the same bet, and no course average says so.

Draw	Led	Prominent	Midfield	Held up
Low	18.4% of 412	12.6% of 928	8.4% of 546	10.1% of 734
Low-middle	22.3% of 471	13.4% of 898	9.5% of 576	8.3% of 665
Middle	16.7% of 492	11.1% of 868	10.9% of 624	9.6% of 729
Middle-high	17.7% of 424	10.2% of 846	11.7% of 599	8.1% of 750
High	17.0% of 395	10.6% of 847	11.5% of 531	9.2% of 812

How to read these figures

The draw is read as a rank among the stalls actually occupied, cut into five bands from Low to High, so an 8-runner field and a 20-runner field compare honestly. Fallers and horses pulled up carry no beaten distance and are left out of their race’s average, races with fewer than 5 stalled runners are skipped, and a figure is only published where at least 100 runs sit behind it. The full method is on the draw bias index.

This is on every Yarmouth racecard

Premium members get the draw read per stall on the card itself, next to the ratings, the pace map and each horse’s own running style. Five days free, no card.

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