Draw Bias · Left-handed · Turf

Yarmouth draw bias

What each part of the draw has really been worth at Yarmouth, in lengths against the field average, measured from every Flat race here since 2014. Positive figures finish closer to the winner than the field does; negative ones give lengths away at the stalls.

The strongest measured effect: High draws have cost 0.96L per run over 9f to 11f, across 426 runs.

The whole picture, every trip

Every stalled run at Yarmouth together. The trip tables below tell the finer story: a bias at 5f can vanish, or flip, at a mile.

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	+0.18L	2,728
Low-middle	+0.32L	2,746
Middle	+0.26L	2,837
Middle-high	-0.17L	2,748
High	-0.59L	2,721

Over 5f to 6f

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	+0.21L	866
Low-middle	+0.33L	855
Middle	+0.18L	914
Middle-high	-0.10L	853
High	-0.62L	860

On firm ground

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	-0.26L	463
Low-middle	+0.34L	473
Middle	+0.07L	484
Middle-high	+0.27L	472
High	-0.44L	459

On good ground

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	+0.53L	311
Low-middle	+0.61L	294
Middle	+0.57L	328
Middle-high	-0.74L	293
High	-1.01L	311

On soft ground

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Middle	-0.58L	102

Fields of 2-7 runners

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	+0.03L	226
Low-middle	+0.09L	303
Middle	-0.08L	313
Middle-high	+0.28L	301
High	-0.43L	221

Fields of 8-11 runners

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	+0.14L	487
Low-middle	+0.73L	389
Middle	+0.43L	454
Middle-high	-0.48L	389
High	-0.74L	484

Fields of 12-15 runners

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	+0.72L	147
Low-middle	-0.30L	157
Middle	-0.10L	139
Middle-high	+0.18L	157
High	-0.49L	149

Over 7f to 8f

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	+0.17L	1,143
Low-middle	+0.24L	1,150
Middle	+0.18L	1,178
Middle-high	-0.14L	1,155
High	-0.45L	1,142

On firm ground

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	-0.09L	577
Low-middle	-0.04L	590
Middle	-0.06L	602
Middle-high	+0.29L	594
High	-0.10L	579

On good ground

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	+0.38L	410
Low-middle	+0.46L	414
Middle	+0.26L	414
Middle-high	-0.44L	415
High	-0.65L	408

On soft ground

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	+0.55L	156
Low-middle	+0.80L	146
Middle	+0.89L	162
Middle-high	-1.07L	146
High	-1.23L	155

Fields of 2-7 runners

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	+0.38L	216
Low-middle	+0.24L	309
Middle	+0.00L	289
Middle-high	+0.01L	309
High	-0.74L	215

Fields of 8-11 runners

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	+0.10L	636
Low-middle	+0.25L	534
Middle	+0.23L	613
Middle-high	-0.17L	534
High	-0.39L	633

Fields of 12-15 runners

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	+0.13L	279
Low-middle	+0.41L	295
Middle	+0.22L	260
Middle-high	-0.30L	300
High	-0.44L	282

Over 9f to 11f

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	+0.49L	425
Low-middle	+0.19L	428
Middle	+0.45L	429
Middle-high	-0.18L	427
High	-0.96L	426

On firm ground

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	+0.19L	222
Low-middle	+0.08L	227
Middle	+0.31L	223
Middle-high	-0.53L	227
High	-0.04L	221

On good ground

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	+0.69L	162
Low-middle	+0.69L	161
Middle	+0.93L	160
Middle-high	-0.60L	160
High	-1.69L	163

Fields of 2-7 runners

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low-middle	+0.14L	123
Middle	+1.63L	125
Middle-high	-0.52L	122

Fields of 8-11 runners

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	+0.42L	229
Low-middle	+0.28L	196
Middle	+0.15L	208
Middle-high	-0.23L	196
High	-0.58L	229

Fields of 12-15 runners

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	+0.95L	102
Low-middle	-0.04L	106
Middle-high	+0.52L	106
High	-1.03L	103

Over 12f to 15f

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	-0.29L	293
Low-middle	+0.73L	312
Middle	+0.52L	315
Middle-high	-0.45L	312
High	-0.57L	292

On firm ground

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	-0.03L	136
Low-middle	+0.29L	156
Middle	+0.24L	158
Middle-high	-0.69L	156
High	+0.20L	136

On good ground

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	-0.14L	115
Low-middle	+1.29L	113
Middle	+0.69L	119
Middle-high	-0.22L	113
High	-1.64L	114

Fields of 2-7 runners

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low-middle	+0.89L	131
Middle	+1.63L	127
Middle-high	-1.67L	131

Fields of 8-11 runners

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	+0.80L	132
Low-middle	-0.33L	110
Middle	-0.94L	122
Middle-high	+0.57L	110
High	-0.13L	130

Run styles from each part of the draw

Win rates for horses ridden in each early-position style from each part of the draw at Yarmouth. A front runner drawn low and one drawn wide are not the same bet, and no course average says so.

Draw	Led	Prominent	Midfield	Held up
Low	18.5% of 417	12.6% of 943	8.2% of 558	10.0% of 742
Low-middle	22.4% of 478	13.5% of 910	9.7% of 589	8.2% of 672
Middle	17.0% of 499	11.1% of 883	11.0% of 636	9.5% of 733
Middle-high	17.4% of 431	10.2% of 854	11.7% of 607	8.0% of 766
High	17.0% of 401	10.6% of 853	11.3% of 541	9.2% of 829

How to read these figures

The draw is read as a rank among the stalls actually occupied, cut into five bands from Low to High, so an 8-runner field and a 20-runner field compare honestly. Fallers and horses pulled up carry no beaten distance and are left out of their race’s average, races with fewer than 5 stalled runners are skipped, and a figure is only published where at least 100 runs sit behind it. The full method is on the draw bias index.

This is on every Yarmouth racecard

Premium members get the draw read per stall on the card itself, next to the ratings, the pace map and each horse’s own running style. Five days free, no card.

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