Draw Bias · Left-handed · Turf

Yarmouth draw bias

What each part of the draw has really been worth at Yarmouth, in lengths against the field average, measured from every Flat race here since 2014. Positive figures finish closer to the winner than the field does; negative ones give lengths away at the stalls.

The strongest measured effect: High draws have cost 0.97L per run over 9f to 11f, across 433 runs.

The whole picture, every trip

Every stalled run at Yarmouth together. The trip tables below tell the finer story: a bias at 5f can vanish, or flip, at a mile.

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	+0.16L	2,767
Low-middle	+0.31L	2,785
Middle	+0.26L	2,875
Middle-high	-0.17L	2,787
High	-0.57L	2,760

Over 5f to 6f

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	+0.22L	879
Low-middle	+0.31L	866
Middle	+0.15L	926
Middle-high	-0.11L	864
High	-0.58L	873

On firm ground

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	-0.25L	465
Low-middle	+0.33L	475
Middle	+0.07L	485
Middle-high	+0.27L	474
High	-0.44L	461

On good ground

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	+0.55L	315
Low-middle	+0.57L	298
Middle	+0.53L	332
Middle-high	-0.72L	297
High	-0.97L	315

On soft ground

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Middle	-0.65L	109

Fields of 2-7 runners

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	+0.03L	228
Low-middle	+0.09L	306
Middle	-0.08L	316
Middle-high	+0.30L	304
High	-0.44L	223

Fields of 8-11 runners

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	+0.13L	495
Low-middle	+0.70L	395
Middle	+0.41L	460
Middle-high	-0.47L	395
High	-0.69L	492

Fields of 12-15 runners

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	+0.77L	150
Low-middle	-0.31L	159
Middle	-0.19L	142
Middle-high	+0.15L	159
High	-0.41L	152

Over 7f to 8f

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	+0.15L	1,156
Low-middle	+0.24L	1,165
Middle	+0.20L	1,191
Middle-high	-0.16L	1,170
High	-0.44L	1,155

On firm ground

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	-0.08L	584
Low-middle	-0.06L	597
Middle	-0.01L	610
Middle-high	+0.24L	601
High	-0.09L	586

On good ground

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	+0.32L	413
Low-middle	+0.46L	419
Middle	+0.26L	417
Middle-high	-0.41L	420
High	-0.64L	411

On soft ground

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	+0.53L	159
Low-middle	+0.81L	149
Middle	+0.88L	164
Middle-high	-1.08L	149
High	-1.19L	158

Fields of 2-7 runners

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	+0.35L	221
Low-middle	+0.22L	316
Middle	+0.09L	294
Middle-high	-0.06L	316
High	-0.71L	220

Fields of 8-11 runners

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	+0.11L	642
Low-middle	+0.25L	539
Middle	+0.23L	619
Middle-high	-0.19L	539
High	-0.38L	639

Fields of 12-15 runners

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	+0.07L	281
Low-middle	+0.40L	298
Middle	+0.23L	262
Middle-high	-0.25L	303
High	-0.43L	284

Over 9f to 11f

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	+0.47L	432
Low-middle	+0.22L	435
Middle	+0.43L	435
Middle-high	-0.16L	434
High	-0.97L	433

On firm ground

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	+0.18L	224
Low-middle	+0.08L	229
Middle	+0.32L	224
Middle-high	-0.50L	229
High	-0.07L	223

On good ground

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	+0.67L	164
Low-middle	+0.70L	163
Middle	+0.83L	162
Middle-high	-0.51L	162
High	-1.68L	165

Fields of 2-7 runners

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low-middle	+0.14L	123
Middle	+1.63L	125
Middle-high	-0.52L	122

Fields of 8-11 runners

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	+0.40L	233
Low-middle	+0.28L	200
Middle	+0.09L	211
Middle-high	-0.14L	200
High	-0.61L	233

Fields of 12-15 runners

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	+0.87L	105
Low-middle	+0.08L	109
Middle-high	+0.44L	109
High	-1.04L	106

Over 12f to 15f

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	-0.38L	299
Low-middle	+0.71L	318
Middle	+0.59L	322
Middle-high	-0.46L	318
High	-0.53L	298

On firm ground

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	-0.03L	136
Low-middle	+0.29L	156
Middle	+0.24L	158
Middle-high	-0.69L	156
High	+0.20L	136

On good ground

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	-0.41L	119
Low-middle	+1.35L	118
Middle	+0.81L	124
Middle-high	-0.27L	118
High	-1.53L	118

Fields of 2-7 runners

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low-middle	+0.89L	131
Middle	+1.63L	127
Middle-high	-1.67L	131

Fields of 8-11 runners

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	+0.54L	136
Low-middle	-0.29L	113
Middle	-0.78L	127
Middle-high	+0.61L	113
High	-0.08L	134

Run styles from each part of the draw

Win rates for horses ridden in each early-position style from each part of the draw at Yarmouth. A front runner drawn low and one drawn wide are not the same bet, and no course average says so.

Draw	Led	Prominent	Midfield	Held up
Low	18.3% of 421	12.6% of 953	8.2% of 574	10.0% of 751
Low-middle	22.3% of 485	13.5% of 919	9.8% of 605	8.2% of 679
Middle	17.0% of 505	11.2% of 891	11.1% of 649	9.4% of 744
Middle-high	17.3% of 434	10.3% of 866	11.7% of 625	8.0% of 772
High	16.8% of 410	10.6% of 861	11.2% of 553	9.2% of 839

How to read these figures

The draw is read as a rank among the stalls actually occupied, cut into five bands from Low to High, so an 8-runner field and a 20-runner field compare honestly. Fallers and horses pulled up carry no beaten distance and are left out of their race’s average, races with fewer than 5 stalled runners are skipped, and a figure is only published where at least 100 runs sit behind it. The full method is on the draw bias index.

This is on every Yarmouth racecard

Premium members get the draw read per stall on the card itself, next to the ratings, the pace map and each horse’s own running style. Five days free, no card.

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