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Draw Bias · Left-handed · Polytrack and Tapeta

Wolverhampton draw bias

What each part of the draw has really been worth at Wolverhampton, in lengths against the field average, measured from every Flat race here since 2014. Positive figures finish closer to the winner than the field does; negative ones give lengths away at the stalls.

The strongest measured effect: Middle draws have been worth +1.57L per run over 16f to 19f, across 311 runs.

The whole picture, every trip

Every stalled run at Wolverhampton together. The trip tables below tell the finer story: a bias at 5f can vanish, or flip, at a mile.

DrawLengths vs field averageRuns
Low+0.13L13,047
Low-middle+0.25L13,325
Middle+0.51L13,680
Middle-high-0.29L13,333
High-0.62L13,049

Over 5f to 6f

DrawLengths vs field averageRuns
Low+0.21L4,006
Low-middle+0.36L3,974
Middle+0.23L4,105
Middle-high-0.16L3,971
High-0.64L4,006

On a standard surface

DrawLengths vs field averageRuns
Low+0.19L3,916
Low-middle+0.36L3,888
Middle+0.25L4,006
Middle-high-0.17L3,886
High-0.63L3,916

Fields of 2-7 runners

DrawLengths vs field averageRuns
Low-0.56L429
Low-middle+0.59L642
Middle-0.05L561
Middle-high-0.09L644
High-0.14L428

Fields of 8-11 runners

DrawLengths vs field averageRuns
Low+0.25L2,910
Low-middle+0.45L2,564
Middle+0.21L2,877
Middle-high-0.21L2,564
High-0.67L2,910

Fields of 12-15 runners

DrawLengths vs field averageRuns
Low+0.53L667
Low-middle-0.16L768
Middle+0.56L667
Middle-high-0.07L763
High-0.83L668

Over 7f to 8f

DrawLengths vs field averageRuns
Low+0.38L2,732
Low-middle+0.24L2,900
Middle+0.38L2,904
Middle-high-0.18L2,905
High-0.84L2,724

On a standard surface

DrawLengths vs field averageRuns
Low+0.34L2,672
Low-middle+0.27L2,833
Middle+0.37L2,835
Middle-high-0.20L2,838
High-0.81L2,664

Fields of 2-7 runners

DrawLengths vs field averageRuns
Low-0.14L232
Low-middle+0.46L338
Middle-0.13L309
Middle-high-0.19L339
High-0.08L234

Fields of 8-11 runners

DrawLengths vs field averageRuns
Low+0.32L2,012
Low-middle+0.29L1,833
Middle+0.41L2,111
Middle-high-0.04L1,835
High-0.99L2,007

Fields of 12-15 runners

DrawLengths vs field averageRuns
Low+0.87L488
Low-middle+0.02L729
Middle+0.54L484
Middle-high-0.54L731
High-0.62L483

Over 9f to 11f

DrawLengths vs field averageRuns
Low+0.01L4,249
Low-middle+0.17L4,275
Middle+0.59L4,457
Middle-high-0.48L4,282
High-0.32L4,249

On a standard surface

DrawLengths vs field averageRuns
Low-0.02L4,186
Low-middle+0.18L4,212
Middle+0.60L4,394
Middle-high-0.48L4,219
High-0.31L4,187

Fields of 2-7 runners

DrawLengths vs field averageRuns
Low-0.35L465
Low-middle-0.00L663
Middle+0.80L640
Middle-high-0.32L661
High-0.28L467

Fields of 8-11 runners

DrawLengths vs field averageRuns
Low+0.03L2,446
Low-middle+0.01L2,157
Middle+0.41L2,486
Middle-high-0.33L2,161
High-0.16L2,445

Fields of 12-15 runners

DrawLengths vs field averageRuns
Low+0.09L1,338
Low-middle+0.50L1,455
Middle+0.83L1,331
Middle-high-0.76L1,460
High-0.64L1,337

Over 12f to 15f

DrawLengths vs field averageRuns
Low-0.10L1,768
Low-middle+0.31L1,873
Middle+0.95L1,903
Middle-high-0.23L1,872
High-1.00L1,775

On a standard surface

DrawLengths vs field averageRuns
Low-0.11L1,732
Low-middle+0.33L1,831
Middle+0.91L1,858
Middle-high-0.19L1,830
High-1.01L1,739

Fields of 2-7 runners

DrawLengths vs field averageRuns
Low-0.36L324
Low-middle+0.16L464
Middle+0.37L435
Middle-high-0.26L462
High+0.00L324

Fields of 8-11 runners

DrawLengths vs field averageRuns
Low-0.08L1,119
Low-middle+0.00L975
Middle+1.00L1,142
Middle-high-0.14L977
High-0.82L1,125

Fields of 12-15 runners

DrawLengths vs field averageRuns
Low+0.12L325
Low-middle+1.15L434
Middle+1.51L326
Middle-high-0.38L433
High-2.65L326

Over 16f to 19f

DrawLengths vs field averageRuns
Low-0.35L292
Low-middle-0.37L303
Middle+1.57L311
Middle-high-0.73L303
High-0.18L295

On a standard surface

DrawLengths vs field averageRuns
Low-0.38L290
Low-middle-0.42L301
Middle+1.79L310
Middle-high-0.81L301
High-0.25L293

Fields of 8-11 runners

DrawLengths vs field averageRuns
Low-0.80L150
Low-middle+0.75L132
Middle+2.09L148
Middle-high-2.82L132
High+0.55L153

Run styles from each part of the draw

Win rates for horses ridden in each early-position style from each part of the draw at Wolverhampton. A front runner drawn low and one drawn wide are not the same bet, and no course average says so.

DrawLedProminentMidfieldHeld up
Low13.8% of 2,19912.9% of 4,25710.3% of 2,7685.2% of 3,497
Low-middle14.7% of 2,04513.8% of 3,99411.4% of 2,8586.2% of 4,114
Middle16.7% of 2,06315.0% of 3,93312.6% of 2,5947.5% of 4,746
Middle-high16.8% of 1,85313.2% of 3,62910.6% of 2,1206.7% of 5,345
High16.8% of 1,71812.0% of 3,28410.2% of 1,5716.5% of 5,972

How to read these figures

The draw is read as a rank among the stalls actually occupied, cut into five bands from Low to High, so an 8-runner field and a 20-runner field compare honestly. Fallers and horses pulled up carry no beaten distance and are left out of their race’s average, races with fewer than 5 stalled runners are skipped, and a figure is only published where at least 100 runs sit behind it. The full method is on the draw bias index.

This is on every Wolverhampton racecard

Premium members get the draw read per stall on the card itself, next to the ratings, the pace map and each horse’s own running style. Five days free, no card.

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