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Draw Bias · Left-handed · Polytrack and Tapeta

Wolverhampton draw bias

What each part of the draw has really been worth at Wolverhampton, in lengths against the field average, measured from every Flat race here since 2014. Positive figures finish closer to the winner than the field does; negative ones give lengths away at the stalls.

The strongest measured effect: Middle draws have been worth +1.57L per run over 16f to 19f, across 311 runs.

The whole picture, every trip

Every stalled run at Wolverhampton together. The trip tables below tell the finer story: a bias at 5f can vanish, or flip, at a mile.

DrawLengths vs field averageRuns
Low+0.13L13,111
Low-middle+0.25L13,392
Middle+0.51L13,753
Middle-high-0.29L13,401
High-0.62L13,114

Over 5f to 6f

DrawLengths vs field averageRuns
Low+0.21L4,028
Low-middle+0.35L3,995
Middle+0.23L4,130
Middle-high-0.17L3,992
High-0.63L4,028

On a standard surface

DrawLengths vs field averageRuns
Low+0.19L3,938
Low-middle+0.36L3,909
Middle+0.24L4,031
Middle-high-0.17L3,907
High-0.63L3,938

Fields of 2-7 runners

DrawLengths vs field averageRuns
Low-0.56L431
Low-middle+0.58L645
Middle-0.05L564
Middle-high-0.08L647
High-0.13L430

Fields of 8-11 runners

DrawLengths vs field averageRuns
Low+0.25L2,920
Low-middle+0.45L2,572
Middle+0.21L2,889
Middle-high-0.22L2,572
High-0.66L2,920

Fields of 12-15 runners

DrawLengths vs field averageRuns
Low+0.53L677
Low-middle-0.14L778
Middle+0.55L677
Middle-high-0.06L773
High-0.85L678

Over 7f to 8f

DrawLengths vs field averageRuns
Low+0.38L2,749
Low-middle+0.25L2,919
Middle+0.38L2,921
Middle-high-0.19L2,924
High-0.85L2,741

On a standard surface

DrawLengths vs field averageRuns
Low+0.34L2,689
Low-middle+0.28L2,852
Middle+0.37L2,852
Middle-high-0.20L2,857
High-0.82L2,681

Fields of 2-7 runners

DrawLengths vs field averageRuns
Low-0.13L233
Low-middle+0.47L339
Middle-0.17L311
Middle-high-0.17L340
High-0.08L235

Fields of 8-11 runners

DrawLengths vs field averageRuns
Low+0.31L2,024
Low-middle+0.29L1,845
Middle+0.42L2,122
Middle-high-0.04L1,847
High-0.98L2,019

Fields of 12-15 runners

DrawLengths vs field averageRuns
Low+0.88L492
Low-middle+0.04L735
Middle+0.53L488
Middle-high-0.55L737
High-0.65L487

Over 9f to 11f

DrawLengths vs field averageRuns
Low+0.01L4,268
Low-middle+0.18L4,295
Middle+0.59L4,480
Middle-high-0.48L4,303
High-0.32L4,269

On a standard surface

DrawLengths vs field averageRuns
Low-0.02L4,205
Low-middle+0.19L4,232
Middle+0.60L4,417
Middle-high-0.49L4,240
High-0.31L4,207

Fields of 2-7 runners

DrawLengths vs field averageRuns
Low-0.36L467
Low-middle-0.01L665
Middle+0.80L644
Middle-high-0.32L663
High-0.28L469

Fields of 8-11 runners

DrawLengths vs field averageRuns
Low+0.03L2,461
Low-middle+0.01L2,172
Middle+0.42L2,503
Middle-high-0.35L2,177
High-0.16L2,461

Fields of 12-15 runners

DrawLengths vs field averageRuns
Low+0.10L1,340
Low-middle+0.50L1,458
Middle+0.83L1,333
Middle-high-0.76L1,463
High-0.64L1,339

Over 12f to 15f

DrawLengths vs field averageRuns
Low-0.10L1,774
Low-middle+0.32L1,880
Middle+0.94L1,911
Middle-high-0.23L1,879
High-1.00L1,781

On a standard surface

DrawLengths vs field averageRuns
Low-0.12L1,738
Low-middle+0.34L1,838
Middle+0.90L1,866
Middle-high-0.20L1,837
High-1.00L1,745

Fields of 2-7 runners

DrawLengths vs field averageRuns
Low-0.35L326
Low-middle+0.19L467
Middle+0.37L437
Middle-high-0.30L465
High+0.00L326

Fields of 8-11 runners

DrawLengths vs field averageRuns
Low-0.09L1,123
Low-middle+0.01L979
Middle+0.99L1,148
Middle-high-0.14L981
High-0.81L1,129

Fields of 12-15 runners

DrawLengths vs field averageRuns
Low+0.12L325
Low-middle+1.15L434
Middle+1.51L326
Middle-high-0.38L433
High-2.65L326

Over 16f to 19f

DrawLengths vs field averageRuns
Low-0.35L292
Low-middle-0.37L303
Middle+1.57L311
Middle-high-0.73L303
High-0.18L295

On a standard surface

DrawLengths vs field averageRuns
Low-0.38L290
Low-middle-0.42L301
Middle+1.79L310
Middle-high-0.81L301
High-0.25L293

Fields of 8-11 runners

DrawLengths vs field averageRuns
Low-0.80L150
Low-middle+0.75L132
Middle+2.09L148
Middle-high-2.82L132
High+0.55L153

Run styles from each part of the draw

Win rates for horses ridden in each early-position style from each part of the draw at Wolverhampton. A front runner drawn low and one drawn wide are not the same bet, and no course average says so.

DrawLedProminentMidfieldHeld up
Low13.7% of 2,20912.9% of 4,27510.3% of 2,7935.2% of 3,508
Low-middle14.7% of 2,05413.7% of 4,00811.5% of 2,8856.2% of 4,131
Middle16.6% of 2,07315.0% of 3,94412.7% of 2,6277.5% of 4,765
Middle-high16.8% of 1,86213.2% of 3,64010.6% of 2,1426.7% of 5,371
High16.8% of 1,73012.1% of 3,30010.2% of 1,5756.5% of 6,005

How to read these figures

The draw is read as a rank among the stalls actually occupied, cut into five bands from Low to High, so an 8-runner field and a 20-runner field compare honestly. Fallers and horses pulled up carry no beaten distance and are left out of their race’s average, races with fewer than 5 stalled runners are skipped, and a figure is only published where at least 100 runs sit behind it. The full method is on the draw bias index.

This is on every Wolverhampton racecard

Premium members get the draw read per stall on the card itself, next to the ratings, the pace map and each horse’s own running style. Five days free, no card.

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