Draw Bias · Right-handed · Turf

Windsor draw bias

What each part of the draw has really been worth at Windsor, in lengths against the field average, measured from every Flat race here since 2014. Positive figures finish closer to the winner than the field does; negative ones give lengths away at the stalls.

The strongest measured effect: Low draws have cost 1.28L per run over 12f to 15f, across 490 runs.

The whole picture, every trip

Every stalled run at Windsor together. The trip tables below tell the finer story: a bias at 5f can vanish, or flip, at a mile.

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	+0.03L	3,680
Low-middle	-0.09L	3,694
Middle	+0.20L	3,737
Middle-high	-0.07L	3,699
High	-0.07L	3,679

Over 5f to 6f

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	-0.22L	1,730
Low-middle	-0.09L	1,751
Middle	+0.12L	1,766
Middle-high	+0.05L	1,750
High	+0.14L	1,728

On firm ground

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	-0.04L	922
Low-middle	-0.04L	941
Middle	+0.07L	937
Middle-high	-0.04L	945
High	+0.05L	919

On good ground

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	-0.40L	627
Low-middle	-0.15L	629
Middle	+0.20L	638
Middle-high	+0.11L	624
High	+0.24L	627

On soft ground

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	-0.51L	181
Low-middle	-0.18L	181
Middle	+0.13L	191
Middle-high	+0.32L	181
High	+0.24L	182

Fields of 2-7 runners

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	-0.04L	237
Low-middle	+0.05L	350
Middle	-0.07L	318
Middle-high	+0.18L	348
High	-0.20L	238

Fields of 8-11 runners

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	-0.17L	866
Low-middle	-0.39L	757
Middle	-0.06L	844
Middle-high	+0.33L	757
High	+0.28L	868

Fields of 12-15 runners

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	-0.31L	573
Low-middle	+0.10L	590
Middle	+0.60L	532
Middle-high	-0.38L	591
High	+0.04L	569

Over 7f to 8f

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	+1.02L	624
Low-middle	-0.08L	597
Middle	+0.21L	622
Middle-high	-0.37L	602
High	-0.79L	624

On firm ground

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	+0.76L	289
Low-middle	-0.30L	282
Middle	+0.56L	298
Middle-high	-0.63L	283
High	-0.44L	288

On good ground

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	+0.79L	221
Low-middle	-0.28L	213
Middle	+0.06L	213
Middle-high	+0.04L	214
High	-0.62L	222

On soft ground

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	+2.12L	114
Low-middle	+0.95L	102
Middle	-0.45L	111
Middle-high	-0.55L	105
High	-2.02L	114

Fields of 2-7 runners

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Middle-high	-0.51L	100

Fields of 8-11 runners

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	+0.29L	301
Low-middle	+0.26L	266
Middle	+0.33L	302
Middle-high	+0.31L	267
High	-1.13L	301

Fields of 12-15 runners

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	+2.25L	251
Low-middle	-0.64L	233
Middle	+0.01L	226
Middle-high	-1.09L	235
High	-0.65L	251

Over 9f to 11f

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	+0.57L	836
Low-middle	+0.09L	841
Middle	+0.20L	846
Middle-high	-0.18L	843
High	-0.67L	837

On firm ground

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	+0.76L	378
Low-middle	+0.02L	392
Middle	+0.23L	384
Middle-high	-0.27L	392
High	-0.73L	379

On good ground

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	+0.21L	337
Low-middle	-0.02L	331
Middle	+0.50L	346
Middle-high	+0.04L	332
High	-0.74L	337

On soft ground

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	+0.99L	121
Low-middle	+0.60L	118
Middle	-0.80L	116
Middle-high	-0.51L	119
High	-0.30L	121

Fields of 2-7 runners

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	+0.57L	142
Low-middle	-0.16L	206
Middle	-0.07L	190
Middle-high	+0.56L	206
High	-1.08L	142

Fields of 8-11 runners

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	+0.97L	390
Low-middle	-0.56L	335
Middle	-0.11L	370
Middle-high	-0.91L	334
High	+0.39L	391

Fields of 12-15 runners

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	-0.17L	277
Low-middle	+0.87L	274
Middle	+0.80L	250
Middle-high	-0.14L	276
High	-1.27L	277

Over 12f to 15f

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	-1.28L	490
Low-middle	-0.40L	505
Middle	+0.45L	503
Middle-high	+0.09L	504
High	+1.14L	490

On firm ground

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	-1.14L	224
Low-middle	+0.52L	232
Middle	+1.03L	236
Middle-high	-1.27L	231
High	+0.82L	225

On good ground

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	-1.88L	198
Low-middle	-0.34L	205
Middle	-0.39L	198
Middle-high	+1.03L	204
High	+1.56L	197

Fields of 2-7 runners

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	-1.44L	115
Low-middle	-0.58L	164
Middle	+0.19L	156
Middle-high	+1.03L	164
High	+0.53L	115

Fields of 8-11 runners

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	-0.51L	253
Low-middle	-0.93L	215
Middle	+0.56L	231
Middle-high	-0.78L	215
High	+1.45L	253

Fields of 12-15 runners

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	-2.53L	110
Low-middle	+0.43L	114
Middle	+0.71L	100
Middle-high	+0.80L	113
High	+0.61L	110

Run styles from each part of the draw

Win rates for horses ridden in each early-position style from each part of the draw at Windsor. A front runner drawn low and one drawn wide are not the same bet, and no course average says so.

Draw	Led	Prominent	Midfield	Held up
Low	20.7% of 556	12.4% of 1,123	9.9% of 820	4.7% of 1,096
Low-middle	19.3% of 561	10.2% of 1,061	9.7% of 785	6.1% of 1,181
Middle	20.8% of 544	13.1% of 1,073	11.1% of 764	8.1% of 1,227
Middle-high	20.5% of 551	11.1% of 1,072	9.0% of 678	6.3% of 1,267
High	16.5% of 550	12.3% of 1,065	8.6% of 649	6.9% of 1,291

How to read these figures

The draw is read as a rank among the stalls actually occupied, cut into five bands from Low to High, so an 8-runner field and a 20-runner field compare honestly. Fallers and horses pulled up carry no beaten distance and are left out of their race’s average, races with fewer than 5 stalled runners are skipped, and a figure is only published where at least 100 runs sit behind it. The full method is on the draw bias index.

This is on every Windsor racecard

Premium members get the draw read per stall on the card itself, next to the ratings, the pace map and each horse’s own running style. Five days free, no card.

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