Draw Bias · Left-handed · Fibresand and Tapeta and Turf

Southwell draw bias

What each part of the draw has really been worth at Southwell, in lengths against the field average, measured from every Flat race here since 2014. Positive figures finish closer to the winner than the field does; negative ones give lengths away at the stalls.

The strongest measured effect: Low draws have cost 1.76L per run over 12f to 15f, across 881 runs.

The whole picture, every trip

Every stalled run at Southwell together. The trip tables below tell the finer story: a bias at 5f can vanish, or flip, at a mile.

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	-0.38L	6,846
Low-middle	+0.14L	6,974
Middle	-0.00L	6,908
Middle-high	+0.11L	6,968
High	+0.13L	6,848

Over 5f to 6f

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	+0.51L	2,436
Low-middle	+0.23L	2,475
Middle	+0.00L	2,470
Middle-high	-0.24L	2,471
High	-0.51L	2,438

On a standard surface

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	+0.44L	2,142
Low-middle	+0.22L	2,184
Middle	+0.07L	2,192
Middle-high	-0.22L	2,180
High	-0.51L	2,143

On a slow surface

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	+1.00L	294
Low-middle	+0.31L	291
Middle	-0.49L	278
Middle-high	-0.36L	291
High	-0.49L	295

Fields of 2-7 runners

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	-0.02L	362
Low-middle	+0.26L	530
Middle	-0.07L	484
Middle-high	-0.11L	531
High	-0.10L	363

Fields of 8-11 runners

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	+0.44L	1,381
Low-middle	+0.18L	1,202
Middle	+0.09L	1,365
Middle-high	-0.16L	1,202
High	-0.55L	1,382

Fields of 12-15 runners

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	+0.94L	693
Low-middle	+0.29L	743
Middle	-0.13L	621
Middle-high	-0.47L	738
High	-0.63L	693

Over 7f to 8f

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	-0.45L	2,911
Low-middle	+0.07L	2,952
Middle	+0.18L	2,920
Middle-high	+0.15L	2,950
High	+0.04L	2,913

On a standard surface

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	-0.45L	2,638
Low-middle	+0.10L	2,669
Middle	+0.15L	2,649
Middle-high	+0.13L	2,666
High	+0.07L	2,639

On a slow surface

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	-0.49L	273
Low-middle	-0.20L	283
Middle	+0.54L	271
Middle-high	+0.38L	284
High	-0.23L	274

Fields of 2-7 runners

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	-0.88L	325
Low-middle	-0.27L	475
Middle	+0.10L	435
Middle-high	-0.14L	474
High	+1.35L	326

Fields of 8-11 runners

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	-0.55L	1,679
Low-middle	+0.23L	1,486
Middle	+0.26L	1,655
Middle-high	+0.43L	1,486
High	-0.29L	1,680

Fields of 12-15 runners

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	-0.11L	907
Low-middle	-0.02L	991
Middle	+0.09L	830
Middle-high	-0.12L	990
High	+0.18L	907

Over 9f to 11f

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	-1.49L	400
Low-middle	-0.51L	416
Middle	+0.16L	408
Middle-high	+0.62L	417
High	+1.22L	399

On a standard surface

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	-1.72L	368
Low-middle	-0.49L	382
Middle	+0.30L	382
Middle-high	+0.51L	383
High	+1.39L	367

Fields of 2-7 runners

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low-middle	-1.52L	108
Middle	-0.75L	100
Middle-high	+1.30L	107

Fields of 8-11 runners

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	-0.73L	216
Low-middle	-0.06L	185
Middle	+0.09L	213
Middle-high	+0.00L	187
High	+0.70L	215

Fields of 12-15 runners

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	-2.63L	109
Low-middle	-0.30L	123
Middle-high	+0.97L	123
High	+0.78L	109

Over 12f to 15f

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	-1.76L	881
Low-middle	+0.57L	902
Middle	-0.81L	885
Middle-high	+0.59L	899
High	+1.38L	877

On a standard surface

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	-1.52L	783
Low-middle	+0.36L	798
Middle	-0.33L	784
Middle-high	+0.04L	796
High	+1.45L	778

On a slow surface

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low-middle	+2.17L	104
Middle	-4.53L	101
Middle-high	+4.90L	103

Fields of 2-7 runners

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	-1.28L	185
Low-middle	+0.80L	258
Middle	-1.17L	252
Middle-high	+0.98L	259
High	+0.39L	183

Fields of 8-11 runners

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	-2.34L	492
Low-middle	+0.10L	430
Middle	-1.44L	452
Middle-high	+1.24L	429
High	+2.49L	493

Fields of 12-15 runners

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	-0.79L	204
Low-middle	+1.25L	214
Middle	+1.29L	181
Middle-high	-1.20L	211
High	-0.43L	201

Over 16f to 19f

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	-1.69L	218
Low-middle	-0.50L	229
Middle	+0.32L	225
Middle-high	+0.59L	231
High	+1.26L	221

On a standard surface

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	-1.54L	191
Low-middle	-0.81L	200
Middle	+0.99L	198
Middle-high	+0.83L	202
High	+0.47L	194

Fields of 8-11 runners

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	-4.01L	122
Low-middle	+2.52L	104
Middle	+1.72L	113
Middle-high	-0.99L	104
High	+1.11L	123

Run styles from each part of the draw

Win rates for horses ridden in each early-position style from each part of the draw at Southwell. A front runner drawn low and one drawn wide are not the same bet, and no course average says so.

Draw	Led	Prominent	Midfield	Held up
Low	14.8% of 1,141	10.2% of 2,405	11.9% of 1,507	5.8% of 1,668
Low-middle	15.2% of 1,089	12.0% of 2,273	12.6% of 1,487	6.6% of 2,008
Middle	14.1% of 995	13.1% of 2,221	11.2% of 1,360	6.8% of 2,209
Middle-high	19.1% of 990	12.2% of 2,357	11.0% of 1,215	7.2% of 2,308
High	16.3% of 955	12.5% of 2,328	11.8% of 998	7.2% of 2,460

How to read these figures

The draw is read as a rank among the stalls actually occupied, cut into five bands from Low to High, so an 8-runner field and a 20-runner field compare honestly. Fallers and horses pulled up carry no beaten distance and are left out of their race’s average, races with fewer than 5 stalled runners are skipped, and a figure is only published where at least 100 runs sit behind it. The full method is on the draw bias index.

This is on every Southwell racecard

Premium members get the draw read per stall on the card itself, next to the ratings, the pace map and each horse’s own running style. Five days free, no card.

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