Draw Bias · Left-handed · Fibresand and Tapeta and Turf

Southwell draw bias

What each part of the draw has really been worth at Southwell, in lengths against the field average, measured from every Flat race here since 2014. Positive figures finish closer to the winner than the field does; negative ones give lengths away at the stalls.

The strongest measured effect: Low draws have cost 1.75L per run over 12f to 15f, across 886 runs.

The whole picture, every trip

Every stalled run at Southwell together. The trip tables below tell the finer story: a bias at 5f can vanish, or flip, at a mile.

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	-0.37L	6,877
Low-middle	+0.14L	7,014
Middle	+0.01L	6,939
Middle-high	+0.08L	7,009
High	+0.14L	6,879

Over 5f to 6f

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	+0.51L	2,444
Low-middle	+0.23L	2,483
Middle	+0.00L	2,478
Middle-high	-0.24L	2,480
High	-0.50L	2,446

On a standard surface

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	+0.45L	2,150
Low-middle	+0.22L	2,192
Middle	+0.07L	2,200
Middle-high	-0.23L	2,189
High	-0.50L	2,151

On a slow surface

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	+1.00L	294
Low-middle	+0.31L	291
Middle	-0.49L	278
Middle-high	-0.36L	291
High	-0.49L	295

Fields of 2-7 runners

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	-0.02L	364
Low-middle	+0.27L	534
Middle	-0.06L	486
Middle-high	-0.13L	535
High	-0.09L	365

Fields of 8-11 runners

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	+0.44L	1,387
Low-middle	+0.17L	1,206
Middle	+0.09L	1,371
Middle-high	-0.16L	1,207
High	-0.54L	1,388

Fields of 12-15 runners

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	+0.94L	693
Low-middle	+0.29L	743
Middle	-0.13L	621
Middle-high	-0.47L	738
High	-0.63L	693

Over 7f to 8f

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	-0.44L	2,928
Low-middle	+0.07L	2,975
Middle	+0.20L	2,936
Middle-high	+0.11L	2,973
High	+0.06L	2,930

On a standard surface

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	-0.44L	2,655
Low-middle	+0.10L	2,692
Middle	+0.17L	2,665
Middle-high	+0.08L	2,689
High	+0.09L	2,656

On a slow surface

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	-0.49L	273
Low-middle	-0.20L	283
Middle	+0.54L	271
Middle-high	+0.38L	284
High	-0.23L	274

Fields of 2-7 runners

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	-0.88L	326
Low-middle	-0.30L	477
Middle	+0.12L	436
Middle-high	-0.13L	476
High	+1.34L	327

Fields of 8-11 runners

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	-0.54L	1,685
Low-middle	+0.24L	1,492
Middle	+0.25L	1,660
Middle-high	+0.39L	1,492
High	-0.26L	1,686

Fields of 12-15 runners

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	-0.09L	917
Low-middle	+0.00L	1,006
Middle	+0.15L	840
Middle-high	-0.21L	1,005
High	+0.18L	917

Over 9f to 11f

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	-1.50L	401
Low-middle	-0.52L	418
Middle	+0.17L	409
Middle-high	+0.62L	419
High	+1.22L	400

On a standard surface

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	-1.73L	369
Low-middle	-0.49L	384
Middle	+0.32L	383
Middle-high	+0.51L	385
High	+1.39L	368

Fields of 2-7 runners

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low-middle	-1.52L	110
Middle	-0.69L	101
Middle-high	+1.28L	109

Fields of 8-11 runners

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	-0.73L	216
Low-middle	-0.06L	185
Middle	+0.09L	213
Middle-high	+0.00L	187
High	+0.70L	215

Fields of 12-15 runners

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	-2.63L	109
Low-middle	-0.30L	123
Middle-high	+0.97L	123
High	+0.78L	109

Over 12f to 15f

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	-1.75L	886
Low-middle	+0.60L	909
Middle	-0.77L	891
Middle-high	+0.51L	906
High	+1.41L	882

On a standard surface

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	-1.52L	788
Low-middle	+0.39L	805
Middle	-0.29L	790
Middle-high	-0.06L	803
High	+1.48L	783

On a slow surface

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low-middle	+2.17L	104
Middle	-4.53L	101
Middle-high	+4.90L	103

Fields of 2-7 runners

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	-1.35L	186
Low-middle	+0.79L	260
Middle	-1.17L	253
Middle-high	+1.01L	261
High	+0.41L	184

Fields of 8-11 runners

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	-2.35L	494
Low-middle	+0.11L	432
Middle	-1.42L	455
Middle-high	+1.21L	431
High	+2.50L	495

Fields of 12-15 runners

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	-0.69L	206
Low-middle	+1.33L	217
Middle	+1.40L	183
Middle-high	-1.54L	214
High	-0.36L	203

Over 16f to 19f

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	-1.69L	218
Low-middle	-0.50L	229
Middle	+0.32L	225
Middle-high	+0.59L	231
High	+1.26L	221

On a standard surface

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	-1.54L	191
Low-middle	-0.81L	200
Middle	+0.99L	198
Middle-high	+0.83L	202
High	+0.47L	194

Fields of 8-11 runners

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	-4.01L	122
Low-middle	+2.52L	104
Middle	+1.72L	113
Middle-high	-0.99L	104
High	+1.11L	123

Run styles from each part of the draw

Win rates for horses ridden in each early-position style from each part of the draw at Southwell. A front runner drawn low and one drawn wide are not the same bet, and no course average says so.

Draw	Led	Prominent	Midfield	Held up
Low	14.9% of 1,144	10.2% of 2,410	11.8% of 1,523	5.7% of 1,675
Low-middle	15.2% of 1,093	12.0% of 2,279	12.5% of 1,507	6.7% of 2,018
Middle	14.1% of 996	13.2% of 2,228	11.2% of 1,374	6.8% of 2,218
Middle-high	19.0% of 997	12.2% of 2,363	11.1% of 1,230	7.2% of 2,321
High	16.2% of 962	12.6% of 2,332	11.7% of 1,005	7.2% of 2,473

How to read these figures

The draw is read as a rank among the stalls actually occupied, cut into five bands from Low to High, so an 8-runner field and a 20-runner field compare honestly. Fallers and horses pulled up carry no beaten distance and are left out of their race’s average, races with fewer than 5 stalled runners are skipped, and a figure is only published where at least 100 runs sit behind it. The full method is on the draw bias index.

This is on every Southwell racecard

Premium members get the draw read per stall on the card itself, next to the ratings, the pace map and each horse’s own running style. Five days free, no card.

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