Draw Bias · Left-handed · Turf

Redcar draw bias

What each part of the draw has really been worth at Redcar, in lengths against the field average, measured from every Flat race here since 2014. Positive figures finish closer to the winner than the field does; negative ones give lengths away at the stalls.

The strongest measured effect: High draws have cost 2.30L per run over 12f to 15f, across 186 runs.

The whole picture, every trip

Every stalled run at Redcar together. The trip tables below tell the finer story: a bias at 5f can vanish, or flip, at a mile.

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	+0.84L	2,909
Low-middle	+0.77L	2,881
Middle	+0.23L	2,927
Middle-high	-0.74L	2,883
High	-1.10L	2,913

Over 5f to 6f

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	+0.55L	1,092
Low-middle	+0.74L	1,084
Middle	+0.28L	1,098
Middle-high	-0.40L	1,083
High	-1.17L	1,093

On firm ground

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	+0.50L	460
Low-middle	+0.32L	459
Middle	+0.41L	467
Middle-high	-0.55L	458
High	-0.69L	461

On good ground

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	+0.48L	426
Low-middle	+0.86L	419
Middle	+0.02L	428
Middle-high	-0.11L	418
High	-1.24L	426

On soft ground

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	+0.82L	206
Low-middle	+1.45L	206
Middle	+0.51L	203
Middle-high	-0.66L	207
High	-2.11L	206

Fields of 2-7 runners

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low-middle	+0.91L	118
Middle	+0.55L	100
Middle-high	+0.07L	117

Fields of 8-11 runners

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	+0.24L	450
Low-middle	+0.36L	396
Middle	+0.23L	449
Middle-high	-0.39L	396
High	-0.43L	451

Fields of 12-15 runners

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	+0.82L	369
Low-middle	+1.12L	374
Middle	-0.20L	340
Middle-high	-0.48L	374
High	-1.29L	369

Fields of 16+ runners

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	+1.47L	197
Low-middle	+0.71L	196
Middle	+1.03L	209
Middle-high	-0.52L	196
High	-2.76L	196

Over 7f to 8f

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	+0.82L	1,132
Low-middle	+0.62L	1,132
Middle	+0.42L	1,147
Middle-high	-1.03L	1,133
High	-0.84L	1,133

On firm ground

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	+0.34L	457
Low-middle	+0.65L	466
Middle	-0.25L	460
Middle-high	-0.30L	466
High	-0.46L	456

On good ground

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	+0.93L	436
Low-middle	-0.08L	440
Middle	+0.82L	438
Middle-high	-0.78L	441
High	-0.88L	438

On soft ground

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	+1.55L	239
Low-middle	+1.91L	226
Middle	+0.97L	249
Middle-high	-3.02L	226
High	-1.51L	239

Fields of 2-7 runners

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	+0.97L	106
Low-middle	+0.68L	152
Middle	+0.62L	145
Middle-high	-1.65L	151
High	-0.44L	106

Fields of 8-11 runners

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	+0.08L	534
Low-middle	+0.17L	472
Middle	+0.22L	528
Middle-high	+0.12L	471
High	-0.56L	533

Fields of 12-15 runners

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	+1.09L	372
Low-middle	+1.14L	395
Middle	+0.90L	344
Middle-high	-1.91L	397
High	-1.09L	374

Fields of 16+ runners

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	+3.20L	120
Low-middle	+0.57L	113
Middle	-0.26L	130
Middle-high	-1.86L	114
High	-1.68L	120

Over 9f to 11f

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	+1.20L	483
Low-middle	+0.91L	457
Middle	-0.47L	473
Middle-high	-0.55L	458
High	-1.06L	484

On firm ground

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	+1.41L	203
Low-middle	+0.48L	183
Middle	+0.31L	196
Middle-high	-0.50L	182
High	-1.69L	203

On good ground

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	+1.77L	176
Low-middle	+1.34L	173
Middle	-1.48L	171
Middle-high	-0.91L	175
High	-0.74L	176

On soft ground

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	-0.19L	104
Low-middle	+0.95L	101
Middle	-0.29L	106
Middle-high	-0.04L	101
High	-0.39L	105

Fields of 8-11 runners

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	+1.71L	274
Low-middle	+1.14L	230
Middle	-0.67L	260
Middle-high	-1.35L	231
High	-0.89L	274

Fields of 12-15 runners

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	+0.45L	154
Low-middle	+0.87L	154
Middle	-0.41L	133
Middle-high	+0.55L	153
High	-1.51L	155

Over 12f to 15f

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	+2.06L	185
Low-middle	+1.10L	193
Middle	+0.61L	194
Middle-high	-1.46L	194
High	-2.30L	186

Fields of 8-11 runners

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	+1.63L	139
Low-middle	+1.64L	126
Middle	+0.98L	139
Middle-high	-1.73L	128
High	-2.48L	140

Run styles from each part of the draw

Win rates for horses ridden in each early-position style from each part of the draw at Redcar. A front runner drawn low and one drawn wide are not the same bet, and no course average says so.

Draw	Led	Prominent	Midfield	Held up
Low	20.3% of 478	12.1% of 923	12.5% of 728	4.7% of 746
Low-middle	19.4% of 403	12.4% of 931	10.3% of 747	6.4% of 780
Middle	20.3% of 408	9.5% of 905	7.6% of 786	4.7% of 806
Middle-high	13.3% of 346	9.6% of 843	8.9% of 707	5.4% of 955
High	18.9% of 297	10.3% of 784	6.2% of 698	4.9% of 1,087

How to read these figures

The draw is read as a rank among the stalls actually occupied, cut into five bands from Low to High, so an 8-runner field and a 20-runner field compare honestly. Fallers and horses pulled up carry no beaten distance and are left out of their race’s average, races with fewer than 5 stalled runners are skipped, and a figure is only published where at least 100 runs sit behind it. The full method is on the draw bias index.

This is on every Redcar racecard

Premium members get the draw read per stall on the card itself, next to the ratings, the pace map and each horse’s own running style. Five days free, no card.

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