Draw Bias · Left-handed · Turf

Redcar draw bias

What each part of the draw has really been worth at Redcar, in lengths against the field average, measured from every Flat race here since 2014. Positive figures finish closer to the winner than the field does; negative ones give lengths away at the stalls.

The strongest measured effect: High draws have cost 2.31L per run over 12f to 15f, across 188 runs.

The whole picture, every trip

Every stalled run at Redcar together. The trip tables below tell the finer story: a bias at 5f can vanish, or flip, at a mile.

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	+0.87L	2,972
Low-middle	+0.74L	2,944
Middle	+0.20L	2,983
Middle-high	-0.73L	2,946
High	-1.08L	2,976

Over 5f to 6f

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	+0.58L	1,115
Low-middle	+0.77L	1,105
Middle	+0.21L	1,122
Middle-high	-0.39L	1,104
High	-1.17L	1,116

On firm ground

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	+0.50L	460
Low-middle	+0.32L	459
Middle	+0.41L	467
Middle-high	-0.55L	458
High	-0.69L	461

On good ground

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	+0.55L	449
Low-middle	+0.93L	440
Middle	-0.13L	452
Middle-high	-0.09L	439
High	-1.24L	449

On soft ground

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	+0.82L	206
Low-middle	+1.45L	206
Middle	+0.51L	203
Middle-high	-0.66L	207
High	-2.11L	206

Fields of 2-7 runners

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low-middle	+1.00L	124
Middle	+0.49L	105
Middle-high	-0.06L	123

Fields of 8-11 runners

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	+0.27L	454
Low-middle	+0.36L	399
Middle	+0.17L	453
Middle-high	-0.38L	399
High	-0.42L	455

Fields of 12-15 runners

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	+0.85L	381
Low-middle	+1.18L	383
Middle	-0.27L	351
Middle-high	-0.44L	383
High	-1.35L	381

Fields of 16+ runners

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	+1.48L	200
Low-middle	+0.66L	199
Middle	+0.96L	213
Middle-high	-0.50L	199
High	-2.68L	199

Over 7f to 8f

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	+0.87L	1,157
Low-middle	+0.58L	1,157
Middle	+0.40L	1,168
Middle-high	-1.05L	1,158
High	-0.80L	1,158

On firm ground

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	+0.34L	457
Low-middle	+0.65L	466
Middle	-0.25L	460
Middle-high	-0.30L	466
High	-0.46L	456

On good ground

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	+1.04L	461
Low-middle	-0.14L	465
Middle	+0.75L	459
Middle-high	-0.86L	466
High	-0.78L	463

On soft ground

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	+1.55L	239
Low-middle	+1.91L	226
Middle	+0.97L	249
Middle-high	-3.02L	226
High	-1.51L	239

Fields of 2-7 runners

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	+0.97L	108
Low-middle	+0.64L	156
Middle	+0.62L	147
Middle-high	-1.63L	155
High	-0.40L	108

Fields of 8-11 runners

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	+0.13L	542
Low-middle	+0.17L	478
Middle	+0.21L	534
Middle-high	+0.08L	477
High	-0.56L	541

Fields of 12-15 runners

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	+1.17L	383
Low-middle	+1.07L	406
Middle	+0.84L	354
Middle-high	-1.96L	408
High	-0.99L	385

Fields of 16+ runners

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	+3.10L	124
Low-middle	+0.45L	117
Middle	-0.20L	133
Middle-high	-1.76L	118
High	-1.64L	124

Over 9f to 11f

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	+1.17L	496
Low-middle	+0.79L	472
Middle	-0.40L	483
Middle-high	-0.52L	473
High	-1.04L	497

On firm ground

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	+1.41L	203
Low-middle	+0.48L	183
Middle	+0.31L	196
Middle-high	-0.50L	182
High	-1.69L	203

On good ground

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	+1.67L	189
Low-middle	+1.02L	188
Middle	-1.24L	181
Middle-high	-0.80L	190
High	-0.69L	189

On soft ground

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	-0.19L	104
Low-middle	+0.95L	101
Middle	-0.29L	106
Middle-high	-0.04L	101
High	-0.39L	105

Fields of 8-11 runners

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	+1.70L	284
Low-middle	+0.89L	240
Middle	-0.54L	267
Middle-high	-1.26L	241
High	-0.88L	284

Fields of 12-15 runners

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	+0.39L	156
Low-middle	+0.88L	157
Middle	-0.41L	135
Middle-high	+0.59L	156
High	-1.50L	157

Over 12f to 15f

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	+2.08L	187
Low-middle	+1.07L	195
Middle	+0.61L	195
Middle-high	-1.44L	196
High	-2.31L	188

Fields of 8-11 runners

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	+1.66L	141
Low-middle	+1.60L	128
Middle	+0.98L	140
Middle-high	-1.70L	130
High	-2.49L	142

Run styles from each part of the draw

Win rates for horses ridden in each early-position style from each part of the draw at Redcar. A front runner drawn low and one drawn wide are not the same bet, and no course average says so.

Draw	Led	Prominent	Midfield	Held up
Low	20.3% of 488	12.0% of 944	12.4% of 742	4.7% of 763
Low-middle	18.8% of 414	12.3% of 953	10.3% of 758	6.4% of 797
Middle	20.7% of 416	9.5% of 920	7.9% of 807	5.0% of 817
Middle-high	13.3% of 360	9.6% of 857	9.1% of 723	5.3% of 974
High	18.7% of 305	10.2% of 803	6.1% of 710	5.0% of 1,110

How to read these figures

The draw is read as a rank among the stalls actually occupied, cut into five bands from Low to High, so an 8-runner field and a 20-runner field compare honestly. Fallers and horses pulled up carry no beaten distance and are left out of their race’s average, races with fewer than 5 stalled runners are skipped, and a figure is only published where at least 100 runs sit behind it. The full method is on the draw bias index.

This is on every Redcar racecard

Premium members get the draw read per stall on the card itself, next to the ratings, the pace map and each horse’s own running style. Five days free, no card.

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