Draw Bias · Left-handed · Turf

Redcar draw bias

What each part of the draw has really been worth at Redcar, in lengths against the field average, measured from every Flat race here since 2014. Positive figures finish closer to the winner than the field does; negative ones give lengths away at the stalls.

The strongest measured effect: High draws have cost 2.31L per run over 12f to 15f, across 188 runs.

The whole picture, every trip

Every stalled run at Redcar together. The trip tables below tell the finer story: a bias at 5f can vanish, or flip, at a mile.

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	+0.91L	3,009
Low-middle	+0.73L	2,982
Middle	+0.23L	3,015
Middle-high	-0.74L	2,983
High	-1.12L	3,013

Over 5f to 6f

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	+0.62L	1,127
Low-middle	+0.79L	1,118
Middle	+0.18L	1,131
Middle-high	-0.40L	1,117
High	-1.19L	1,128

On firm ground

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	+0.50L	460
Low-middle	+0.32L	459
Middle	+0.41L	467
Middle-high	-0.55L	458
High	-0.69L	461

On good ground

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	+0.57L	455
Low-middle	+0.90L	447
Middle	-0.14L	457
Middle-high	-0.07L	446
High	-1.25L	455

On soft ground

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	+1.00L	212
Low-middle	+1.59L	212
Middle	+0.39L	207
Middle-high	-0.80L	213
High	-2.16L	212

Fields of 2-7 runners

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low-middle	+1.00L	124
Middle	+0.49L	105
Middle-high	-0.06L	123

Fields of 8-11 runners

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	+0.29L	458
Low-middle	+0.35L	403
Middle	+0.18L	456
Middle-high	-0.39L	403
High	-0.43L	459

Fields of 12-15 runners

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	+0.96L	389
Low-middle	+1.24L	392
Middle	-0.36L	357
Middle-high	-0.47L	392
High	-1.40L	389

Fields of 16+ runners

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	+1.48L	200
Low-middle	+0.66L	199
Middle	+0.96L	213
Middle-high	-0.50L	199
High	-2.68L	199

Over 7f to 8f

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	+0.92L	1,172
Low-middle	+0.56L	1,173
Middle	+0.46L	1,184
Middle-high	-1.09L	1,174
High	-0.85L	1,173

On firm ground

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	+0.34L	457
Low-middle	+0.65L	466
Middle	-0.25L	460
Middle-high	-0.30L	466
High	-0.46L	456

On good ground

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	+1.13L	470
Low-middle	-0.22L	474
Middle	+0.82L	468
Middle-high	-0.90L	475
High	-0.80L	472

On soft ground

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	+1.60L	245
Low-middle	+1.95L	233
Middle	+1.06L	256
Middle-high	-3.04L	233
High	-1.68L	245

Fields of 2-7 runners

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	+1.07L	109
Low-middle	+0.32L	158
Middle	+0.70L	148
Middle-high	-1.50L	157
High	-0.33L	109

Fields of 8-11 runners

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	+0.17L	550
Low-middle	+0.24L	486
Middle	+0.24L	543
Middle-high	+0.03L	485
High	-0.65L	549

Fields of 12-15 runners

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	+1.18L	385
Low-middle	+1.08L	409
Middle	+0.86L	356
Middle-high	-1.97L	411
High	-1.01L	387

Fields of 16+ runners

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	+3.23L	128
Low-middle	+0.38L	120
Middle	-0.00L	137
Middle-high	-2.03L	121
High	-1.66L	128

Over 9f to 11f

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	+1.22L	506
Low-middle	+0.72L	481
Middle	-0.33L	490
Middle-high	-0.45L	481
High	-1.16L	507

On firm ground

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	+1.41L	203
Low-middle	+0.48L	183
Middle	+0.31L	196
Middle-high	-0.50L	182
High	-1.69L	203

On good ground

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	+1.79L	192
Low-middle	+1.11L	191
Middle	-1.13L	183
Middle-high	-0.78L	193
High	-1.03L	192

On soft ground

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	-0.11L	111
Low-middle	+0.44L	107
Middle	-0.12L	111
Middle-high	+0.24L	106
High	-0.42L	112

Fields of 8-11 runners

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	+1.64L	288
Low-middle	+0.93L	243
Middle	-0.51L	270
Middle-high	-1.25L	243
High	-0.89L	288

Fields of 12-15 runners

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	+0.65L	162
Low-middle	+0.59L	163
Middle	-0.17L	139
Middle-high	+0.76L	162
High	-1.85L	163

Over 12f to 15f

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	+2.08L	187
Low-middle	+1.07L	195
Middle	+0.61L	195
Middle-high	-1.44L	196
High	-2.31L	188

Fields of 8-11 runners

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	+1.66L	141
Low-middle	+1.60L	128
Middle	+0.98L	140
Middle-high	-1.70L	130
High	-2.49L	142

Run styles from each part of the draw

Win rates for horses ridden in each early-position style from each part of the draw at Redcar. A front runner drawn low and one drawn wide are not the same bet, and no course average says so.

Draw	Led	Prominent	Midfield	Held up
Low	20.2% of 491	11.9% of 959	12.5% of 752	4.7% of 772
Low-middle	18.7% of 423	12.4% of 960	10.3% of 773	6.5% of 804
Middle	20.5% of 420	9.4% of 925	8.0% of 823	5.1% of 823
Middle-high	13.1% of 366	9.7% of 865	9.2% of 737	5.3% of 984
High	18.3% of 312	10.2% of 806	6.0% of 721	4.9% of 1,126

How to read these figures

The draw is read as a rank among the stalls actually occupied, cut into five bands from Low to High, so an 8-runner field and a 20-runner field compare honestly. Fallers and horses pulled up carry no beaten distance and are left out of their race’s average, races with fewer than 5 stalled runners are skipped, and a figure is only published where at least 100 runs sit behind it. The full method is on the draw bias index.

This is on every Redcar racecard

Premium members get the draw read per stall on the card itself, next to the ratings, the pace map and each horse’s own running style. Five days free, no card.

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