Draw Bias · Left-handed · Turf

Pontefract draw bias

What each part of the draw has really been worth at Pontefract, in lengths against the field average, measured from every Flat race here since 2014. Positive figures finish closer to the winner than the field does; negative ones give lengths away at the stalls.

The strongest measured effect: Middle-high draws have cost 6.09L per run over 16f to 19f, across 129 runs.

The whole picture, every trip

Every stalled run at Pontefract together. The trip tables below tell the finer story: a bias at 5f can vanish, or flip, at a mile.

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	+2.56L	2,096
Low-middle	+1.15L	2,129
Middle	-0.04L	2,127
Middle-high	-1.61L	2,124
High	-2.06L	2,087

Over 5f to 6f

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	+1.35L	1,007
Low-middle	+0.58L	1,009
Middle	-0.03L	1,000
Middle-high	-0.76L	1,003
High	-1.14L	1,004

On firm ground

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	+0.89L	341
Low-middle	+0.52L	335
Middle	-0.15L	338
Middle-high	-0.82L	333
High	-0.46L	340

On good ground

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	+0.96L	491
Low-middle	+0.51L	498
Middle	+0.02L	490
Middle-high	-0.61L	494
High	-0.88L	489

On soft ground

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	+3.32L	175
Low-middle	+0.89L	176
Middle	+0.08L	172
Middle-high	-1.07L	176
High	-3.22L	175

Fields of 2-7 runners

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	-0.25L	158
Low-middle	+0.61L	234
Middle	+0.44L	211
Middle-high	-0.82L	232
High	-0.05L	157

Fields of 8-11 runners

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	+1.24L	608
Low-middle	+0.36L	513
Middle	+0.01L	564
Middle-high	-0.72L	512
High	-0.96L	606

Fields of 12-15 runners

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	+2.52L	226
Low-middle	+0.96L	246
Middle	-0.86L	206
Middle-high	-0.63L	244
High	-2.10L	226

Over 7f to 8f

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	+3.01L	501
Low-middle	+1.11L	509
Middle	-0.11L	512
Middle-high	-1.82L	510
High	-2.18L	498

On firm ground

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	+2.29L	143
Low-middle	+1.94L	144
Middle	-0.13L	154
Middle-high	-1.64L	144
High	-2.47L	142

On good ground

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	+1.98L	254
Low-middle	-0.09L	267
Middle	+0.00L	252
Middle-high	-0.86L	267
High	-0.99L	252

On soft ground

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	+6.50L	104
Middle	-0.37L	106
High	-4.66L	104

Fields of 2-7 runners

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low-middle	+1.34L	132
Middle	+0.00L	131
Middle-high	-0.16L	133

Fields of 8-11 runners

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	+3.51L	278
Low-middle	+0.59L	244
Middle	-0.23L	256
Middle-high	-1.92L	244
High	-2.16L	275

Fields of 12-15 runners

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	+3.51L	110
Low-middle	+1.28L	114
Middle	+0.36L	102
Middle-high	-3.15L	114
High	-1.91L	110

Over 9f to 11f

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	+4.33L	279
Low-middle	+2.50L	296
Middle	+0.40L	290
Middle-high	-1.65L	294
High	-5.71L	277

On firm ground

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Middle	-0.18L	102

On good ground

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	+2.66L	128
Low-middle	+3.00L	136
Middle	+1.49L	129
Middle-high	-1.49L	136
High	-5.87L	126

Fields of 2-7 runners

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low-middle	+1.43L	114
Middle	+0.65L	107
Middle-high	-0.85L	114

Fields of 8-11 runners

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	+4.48L	154
Low-middle	+3.43L	130
Middle	+0.44L	140
Middle-high	-2.12L	129
High	-6.07L	152

Over 12f to 15f

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	+4.30L	170
Low-middle	+2.60L	171
Middle	-1.95L	180
Middle-high	-0.75L	171
High	-4.09L	170

On good ground

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low-middle	+1.65L	100
Middle	-1.80L	100
Middle-high	+0.10L	101

Over 16f to 19f

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	+4.57L	122
Low-middle	+1.03L	127
Middle	+0.44L	126
Middle-high	-6.09L	129
High	+0.35L	121

Run styles from each part of the draw

Win rates for horses ridden in each early-position style from each part of the draw at Pontefract. A front runner drawn low and one drawn wide are not the same bet, and no course average says so.

Draw	Led	Prominent	Midfield	Held up
Low	23.8% of 383	15.2% of 673	17.5% of 519	9.2% of 491
Low-middle	22.3% of 372	13.0% of 671	11.9% of 487	6.7% of 569
Middle	22.9% of 323	10.9% of 650	11.6% of 476	7.8% of 655
Middle-high	20.5% of 264	8.6% of 659	8.4% of 392	5.5% of 785
High	17.0% of 270	8.0% of 597	7.2% of 305	6.5% of 875

How to read these figures

The draw is read as a rank among the stalls actually occupied, cut into five bands from Low to High, so an 8-runner field and a 20-runner field compare honestly. Fallers and horses pulled up carry no beaten distance and are left out of their race’s average, races with fewer than 5 stalled runners are skipped, and a figure is only published where at least 100 runs sit behind it. The full method is on the draw bias index.

This is on every Pontefract racecard

Premium members get the draw read per stall on the card itself, next to the ratings, the pace map and each horse’s own running style. Five days free, no card.

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