Draw Bias · Left-handed · Turf

Pontefract draw bias

What each part of the draw has really been worth at Pontefract, in lengths against the field average, measured from every Flat race here since 2014. Positive figures finish closer to the winner than the field does; negative ones give lengths away at the stalls.

The strongest measured effect: Middle-high draws have cost 6.45L per run over 16f to 19f, across 127 runs.

The whole picture, every trip

Every stalled run at Pontefract together. The trip tables below tell the finer story: a bias at 5f can vanish, or flip, at a mile.

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	+2.60L	2,083
Low-middle	+1.14L	2,117
Middle	-0.04L	2,115
Middle-high	-1.65L	2,112
High	-2.05L	2,074

Over 5f to 6f

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	+1.36L	1,002
Low-middle	+0.58L	1,004
Middle	-0.04L	995
Middle-high	-0.77L	998
High	-1.14L	999

On firm ground

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	+0.89L	341
Low-middle	+0.52L	335
Middle	-0.15L	338
Middle-high	-0.82L	333
High	-0.46L	340

On good ground

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	+0.96L	491
Low-middle	+0.51L	498
Middle	+0.02L	490
Middle-high	-0.61L	494
High	-0.88L	489

On soft ground

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	+3.48L	170
Low-middle	+0.92L	171
Middle	-0.01L	167
Middle-high	-1.12L	171
High	-3.27L	170

Fields of 2-7 runners

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	-0.19L	157
Low-middle	+0.60L	233
Middle	+0.41L	209
Middle-high	-0.81L	231
High	-0.05L	156

Fields of 8-11 runners

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	+1.25L	604
Low-middle	+0.37L	509
Middle	+0.00L	561
Middle-high	-0.73L	508
High	-0.96L	602

Fields of 12-15 runners

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	+2.52L	226
Low-middle	+0.96L	246
Middle	-0.86L	206
Middle-high	-0.63L	244
High	-2.10L	226

Over 7f to 8f

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	+2.99L	497
Low-middle	+1.07L	506
Middle	-0.07L	507
Middle-high	-1.89L	507
High	-2.10L	494

On firm ground

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	+2.29L	143
Low-middle	+1.94L	144
Middle	-0.13L	154
Middle-high	-1.64L	144
High	-2.47L	142

On good ground

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	+1.98L	254
Low-middle	-0.09L	267
Middle	+0.00L	252
Middle-high	-0.86L	267
High	-0.99L	252

On soft ground

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	+6.57L	100
Middle	-0.16L	101
High	-4.38L	100

Fields of 2-7 runners

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low-middle	+1.34L	132
Middle	+0.00L	131
Middle-high	-0.16L	133

Fields of 8-11 runners

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	+3.50L	274
Low-middle	+0.51L	241
Middle	-0.15L	251
Middle-high	-2.06L	241
High	-2.02L	271

Fields of 12-15 runners

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	+3.51L	110
Low-middle	+1.28L	114
Middle	+0.36L	102
Middle-high	-3.15L	114
High	-1.91L	110

Over 9f to 11f

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	+4.47L	277
Low-middle	+2.54L	294
Middle	+0.35L	289
Middle-high	-1.67L	292
High	-5.81L	275

On firm ground

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Middle	-0.18L	102

On good ground

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	+2.66L	128
Low-middle	+3.00L	136
Middle	+1.49L	129
Middle-high	-1.49L	136
High	-5.87L	126

Fields of 2-7 runners

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low-middle	+1.43L	114
Middle	+0.65L	107
Middle-high	-0.85L	114

Fields of 8-11 runners

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	+4.73L	152
Low-middle	+3.52L	128
Middle	+0.33L	139
Middle-high	-2.18L	127
High	-6.26L	150

Over 12f to 15f

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	+4.30L	170
Low-middle	+2.60L	171
Middle	-1.95L	180
Middle-high	-0.75L	171
High	-4.09L	170

On good ground

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low-middle	+1.65L	100
Middle	-1.80L	100
Middle-high	+0.10L	101

Over 16f to 19f

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	+4.94L	120
Low-middle	+0.98L	125
Middle	+0.53L	125
Middle-high	-6.45L	127
High	+0.32L	119

Run styles from each part of the draw

Win rates for horses ridden in each early-position style from each part of the draw at Pontefract. A front runner drawn low and one drawn wide are not the same bet, and no course average says so.

Draw	Led	Prominent	Midfield	Held up
Low	23.9% of 380	15.2% of 670	17.5% of 515	9.2% of 488
Low-middle	22.6% of 367	13.0% of 669	12.0% of 484	6.7% of 567
Middle	23.1% of 321	10.9% of 649	11.6% of 473	7.4% of 649
Middle-high	20.2% of 263	8.5% of 655	8.5% of 390	5.4% of 780
High	17.2% of 267	8.1% of 595	7.3% of 301	6.5% of 871

How to read these figures

The draw is read as a rank among the stalls actually occupied, cut into five bands from Low to High, so an 8-runner field and a 20-runner field compare honestly. Fallers and horses pulled up carry no beaten distance and are left out of their race’s average, races with fewer than 5 stalled runners are skipped, and a figure is only published where at least 100 runs sit behind it. The full method is on the draw bias index.

This is on every Pontefract racecard

Premium members get the draw read per stall on the card itself, next to the ratings, the pace map and each horse’s own running style. Five days free, no card.

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