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Draw Bias · Left-handed · Tapeta and Turf

Newcastle draw bias

What each part of the draw has really been worth at Newcastle, in lengths against the field average, measured from every Flat race here since 2014. Positive figures finish closer to the winner than the field does; negative ones give lengths away at the stalls.

The strongest measured effect: Low draws have cost 1.96L per run over 9f to 11f, across 890 runs.

The whole picture, every trip

Every stalled run at Newcastle together. The trip tables below tell the finer story: a bias at 5f can vanish, or flip, at a mile.

DrawLengths vs field averageRuns
Low-0.60L8,636
Low-middle-0.16L8,661
Middle+0.17L8,435
Middle-high+0.31L8,650
High+0.28L8,638

Over 5f to 6f

DrawLengths vs field averageRuns
Low-0.27L3,106
Low-middle-0.23L3,107
Middle+0.07L3,012
Middle-high+0.18L3,104
High+0.25L3,107

On a standard surface

DrawLengths vs field averageRuns
Low-0.16L2,311
Low-middle-0.30L2,302
Middle+0.00L2,226
Middle-high+0.21L2,297
High+0.25L2,314

On a slow surface

DrawLengths vs field averageRuns
Low-0.63L729
Low-middle-0.11L743
Middle+0.25L722
Middle-high+0.15L745
High+0.36L727

Fields of 2-7 runners

DrawLengths vs field averageRuns
Low-0.03L303
Low-middle-0.53L447
Middle+0.24L410
Middle-high+0.49L445
High-0.24L303

Fields of 8-11 runners

DrawLengths vs field averageRuns
Low-0.29L1,547
Low-middle-0.28L1,353
Middle+0.01L1,503
Middle-high+0.08L1,351
High+0.46L1,544

Fields of 12-15 runners

DrawLengths vs field averageRuns
Low-0.28L1,253
Low-middle-0.07L1,304
Middle+0.08L1,095
Middle-high+0.18L1,305
High+0.09L1,257

Over 7f to 8f

DrawLengths vs field averageRuns
Low-0.43L3,601
Low-middle-0.14L3,580
Middle+0.50L3,518
Middle-high+0.14L3,574
High-0.06L3,600

On a standard surface

DrawLengths vs field averageRuns
Low-0.39L2,635
Low-middle-0.20L2,618
Middle+0.39L2,582
Middle-high+0.16L2,615
High+0.05L2,634

On a slow surface

DrawLengths vs field averageRuns
Low-0.52L902
Low-middle+0.02L899
Middle+0.64L870
Middle-high+0.05L897
High-0.17L902

Fields of 2-7 runners

DrawLengths vs field averageRuns
Low+0.49L394
Low-middle-0.50L573
Middle+0.45L507
Middle-high+0.03L572
High-0.38L394

Fields of 8-11 runners

DrawLengths vs field averageRuns
Low-0.54L1,786
Low-middle-0.06L1,539
Middle+0.40L1,758
Middle-high+0.23L1,536
High-0.01L1,786

Fields of 12-15 runners

DrawLengths vs field averageRuns
Low-0.55L1,418
Low-middle-0.09L1,465
Middle+0.66L1,249
Middle-high+0.09L1,463
High-0.03L1,417

Over 9f to 11f

DrawLengths vs field averageRuns
Low-1.96L890
Low-middle+0.47L926
Middle-0.14L865
Middle-high+0.79L925
High+0.79L893

On a standard surface

DrawLengths vs field averageRuns
Low-2.03L623
Low-middle+0.17L644
Middle-0.04L604
Middle-high+1.04L643
High+0.82L623

On a slow surface

DrawLengths vs field averageRuns
Low-2.09L245
Low-middle+1.01L260
Middle-0.12L238
Middle-high+0.23L260
High+0.89L247

Fields of 2-7 runners

DrawLengths vs field averageRuns
Low-3.12L120
Low-middle-0.00L181
Middle+0.69L153
Middle-high+0.77L182
High+1.05L122

Fields of 8-11 runners

DrawLengths vs field averageRuns
Low-1.72L432
Low-middle+0.76L378
Middle-0.22L410
Middle-high+0.25L378
High+1.05L432

Fields of 12-15 runners

DrawLengths vs field averageRuns
Low-1.85L338
Low-middle+0.40L367
Middle-0.46L302
Middle-high+1.35L365
High+0.37L339

Over 12f to 15f

DrawLengths vs field averageRuns
Low-0.86L655
Low-middle-1.39L667
Middle-0.48L662
Middle-high+1.24L667
High+1.50L653

On a standard surface

DrawLengths vs field averageRuns
Low-1.58L473
Low-middle-1.08L489
Middle+0.13L473
Middle-high+0.98L488
High+1.56L471

On a slow surface

DrawLengths vs field averageRuns
Low+1.24L167
Low-middle-2.46L164
Middle-2.21L173
Middle-high+2.15L164
High+1.36L167

Fields of 2-7 runners

DrawLengths vs field averageRuns
Low-1.02L116
Low-middle-1.10L166
Middle+0.46L157
Middle-high+1.10L167
High+0.38L116

Fields of 8-11 runners

DrawLengths vs field averageRuns
Low-0.65L332
Low-middle-1.25L285
Middle-0.97L320
Middle-high+1.17L285
High+1.66L331

Fields of 12-15 runners

DrawLengths vs field averageRuns
Low-1.11L207
Low-middle-1.81L216
Middle-0.45L185
Middle-high+1.45L215
High+1.90L206

Over 16f to 19f

DrawLengths vs field averageRuns
Low-1.35L384
Low-middle+0.88L381
Middle-0.11L378
Middle-high+0.24L380
High+0.34L385

On a standard surface

DrawLengths vs field averageRuns
Low-1.89L256
Low-middle+0.42L259
Middle+0.37L257
Middle-high+0.30L257
High+0.79L257

On a slow surface

DrawLengths vs field averageRuns
Low-0.20L115
Low-middle+2.05L108
Middle-1.01L109
Middle-high-0.38L109
High-0.40L115

Fields of 8-11 runners

DrawLengths vs field averageRuns
Low-0.76L150
Low-middle-0.42L124
Middle-1.62L134
Middle-high+1.51L124
High+1.32L149

Fields of 12-15 runners

DrawLengths vs field averageRuns
Low+0.56L105
Low-middle+1.83L111
Middle-high-1.56L109
High-3.16L107

Run styles from each part of the draw

Win rates for horses ridden in each early-position style from each part of the draw at Newcastle. A front runner drawn low and one drawn wide are not the same bet, and no course average says so.

DrawLedProminentMidfieldHeld up
Low14.1% of 1,1999.5% of 2,6286.5% of 1,7028.6% of 3,025
Low-middle12.1% of 1,2139.7% of 2,6819.4% of 1,8858.4% of 2,809
Middle13.6% of 1,22912.1% of 2,6759.8% of 1,7128.9% of 2,761
Middle-high13.3% of 1,19711.5% of 2,72112.4% of 1,7199.0% of 2,933
High13.7% of 1,12611.4% of 2,53011.0% of 1,5939.9% of 3,324

How to read these figures

The draw is read as a rank among the stalls actually occupied, cut into five bands from Low to High, so an 8-runner field and a 20-runner field compare honestly. Fallers and horses pulled up carry no beaten distance and are left out of their race’s average, races with fewer than 5 stalled runners are skipped, and a figure is only published where at least 100 runs sit behind it. The full method is on the draw bias index.

This is on every Newcastle racecard

Premium members get the draw read per stall on the card itself, next to the ratings, the pace map and each horse’s own running style. Five days free, no card.

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