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Draw Bias · Left-handed · Tapeta and Turf

Newcastle draw bias

What each part of the draw has really been worth at Newcastle, in lengths against the field average, measured from every Flat race here since 2014. Positive figures finish closer to the winner than the field does; negative ones give lengths away at the stalls.

The strongest measured effect: Low draws have cost 2.01L per run over 9f to 11f, across 881 runs.

The whole picture, every trip

Every stalled run at Newcastle together. The trip tables below tell the finer story: a bias at 5f can vanish, or flip, at a mile.

DrawLengths vs field averageRuns
Low-0.61L8,571
Low-middle-0.15L8,596
Middle+0.17L8,369
Middle-high+0.32L8,585
High+0.28L8,573

Over 5f to 6f

DrawLengths vs field averageRuns
Low-0.26L3,082
Low-middle-0.23L3,082
Middle+0.07L2,991
Middle-high+0.18L3,079
High+0.25L3,083

On a standard surface

DrawLengths vs field averageRuns
Low-0.15L2,287
Low-middle-0.31L2,277
Middle-0.00L2,205
Middle-high+0.21L2,272
High+0.25L2,290

On a slow surface

DrawLengths vs field averageRuns
Low-0.63L729
Low-middle-0.11L743
Middle+0.25L722
Middle-high+0.15L745
High+0.36L727

Fields of 2-7 runners

DrawLengths vs field averageRuns
Low-0.04L301
Low-middle-0.53L445
Middle+0.25L407
Middle-high+0.51L443
High-0.26L301

Fields of 8-11 runners

DrawLengths vs field averageRuns
Low-0.29L1,529
Low-middle-0.30L1,336
Middle+0.01L1,489
Middle-high+0.08L1,334
High+0.47L1,526

Fields of 12-15 runners

DrawLengths vs field averageRuns
Low-0.27L1,249
Low-middle-0.06L1,298
Middle+0.07L1,091
Middle-high+0.17L1,299
High+0.09L1,253

Over 7f to 8f

DrawLengths vs field averageRuns
Low-0.44L3,575
Low-middle-0.14L3,556
Middle+0.48L3,488
Middle-high+0.16L3,550
High-0.05L3,574

On a standard surface

DrawLengths vs field averageRuns
Low-0.40L2,609
Low-middle-0.21L2,594
Middle+0.37L2,552
Middle-high+0.19L2,591
High+0.06L2,608

On a slow surface

DrawLengths vs field averageRuns
Low-0.52L902
Low-middle+0.02L899
Middle+0.64L870
Middle-high+0.05L897
High-0.17L902

Fields of 2-7 runners

DrawLengths vs field averageRuns
Low+0.46L390
Low-middle-0.50L569
Middle+0.44L501
Middle-high+0.08L568
High-0.42L390

Fields of 8-11 runners

DrawLengths vs field averageRuns
Low-0.55L1,772
Low-middle-0.08L1,526
Middle+0.39L1,742
Middle-high+0.26L1,523
High+0.02L1,772

Fields of 12-15 runners

DrawLengths vs field averageRuns
Low-0.55L1,410
Low-middle-0.07L1,458
Middle+0.64L1,241
Middle-high+0.08L1,456
High-0.03L1,409

Over 9f to 11f

DrawLengths vs field averageRuns
Low-2.01L881
Low-middle+0.50L917
Middle-0.14L857
Middle-high+0.77L916
High+0.82L884

On a standard surface

DrawLengths vs field averageRuns
Low-2.10L614
Low-middle+0.21L635
Middle-0.02L596
Middle-high+1.02L634
High+0.85L614

On a slow surface

DrawLengths vs field averageRuns
Low-2.09L245
Low-middle+1.01L260
Middle-0.12L238
Middle-high+0.23L260
High+0.89L247

Fields of 2-7 runners

DrawLengths vs field averageRuns
Low-3.12L120
Low-middle-0.00L181
Middle+0.69L153
Middle-high+0.77L182
High+1.05L122

Fields of 8-11 runners

DrawLengths vs field averageRuns
Low-1.77L426
Low-middle+0.76L372
Middle-0.21L404
Middle-high+0.25L372
High+1.09L426

Fields of 12-15 runners

DrawLengths vs field averageRuns
Low-1.91L335
Low-middle+0.49L364
Middle-0.45L300
Middle-high+1.30L362
High+0.38L336

Over 12f to 15f

DrawLengths vs field averageRuns
Low-0.89L649
Low-middle-1.36L660
Middle-0.49L655
Middle-high+1.27L660
High+1.48L647

On a standard surface

DrawLengths vs field averageRuns
Low-1.64L467
Low-middle-1.03L482
Middle+0.12L466
Middle-high+1.02L481
High+1.53L465

On a slow surface

DrawLengths vs field averageRuns
Low+1.24L167
Low-middle-2.46L164
Middle-2.21L173
Middle-high+2.15L164
High+1.36L167

Fields of 2-7 runners

DrawLengths vs field averageRuns
Low-1.02L116
Low-middle-1.10L166
Middle+0.46L157
Middle-high+1.10L167
High+0.38L116

Fields of 8-11 runners

DrawLengths vs field averageRuns
Low-0.77L328
Low-middle-1.09L281
Middle-0.99L315
Middle-high+1.27L281
High+1.58L327

Fields of 12-15 runners

DrawLengths vs field averageRuns
Low-1.00L205
Low-middle-1.91L213
Middle-0.46L183
Middle-high+1.40L212
High+1.96L204

Over 16f to 19f

DrawLengths vs field averageRuns
Low-1.35L384
Low-middle+0.88L381
Middle-0.11L378
Middle-high+0.24L380
High+0.34L385

On a standard surface

DrawLengths vs field averageRuns
Low-1.89L256
Low-middle+0.42L259
Middle+0.37L257
Middle-high+0.30L257
High+0.79L257

On a slow surface

DrawLengths vs field averageRuns
Low-0.20L115
Low-middle+2.05L108
Middle-1.01L109
Middle-high-0.38L109
High-0.40L115

Fields of 8-11 runners

DrawLengths vs field averageRuns
Low-0.76L150
Low-middle-0.42L124
Middle-1.62L134
Middle-high+1.51L124
High+1.32L149

Fields of 12-15 runners

DrawLengths vs field averageRuns
Low+0.56L105
Low-middle+1.83L111
Middle-high-1.56L109
High-3.16L107

Run styles from each part of the draw

Win rates for horses ridden in each early-position style from each part of the draw at Newcastle. A front runner drawn low and one drawn wide are not the same bet, and no course average says so.

DrawLedProminentMidfieldHeld up
Low14.1% of 1,1899.5% of 2,6156.4% of 1,6808.6% of 3,005
Low-middle11.9% of 1,1979.7% of 2,6679.4% of 1,8648.4% of 2,795
Middle13.5% of 1,22012.1% of 2,6639.7% of 1,6889.0% of 2,739
Middle-high13.3% of 1,18611.6% of 2,70912.5% of 1,7009.0% of 2,910
High13.8% of 1,12011.4% of 2,51510.9% of 1,5769.9% of 3,297

How to read these figures

The draw is read as a rank among the stalls actually occupied, cut into five bands from Low to High, so an 8-runner field and a 20-runner field compare honestly. Fallers and horses pulled up carry no beaten distance and are left out of their race’s average, races with fewer than 5 stalled runners are skipped, and a figure is only published where at least 100 runs sit behind it. The full method is on the draw bias index.

This is on every Newcastle racecard

Premium members get the draw read per stall on the card itself, next to the ratings, the pace map and each horse’s own running style. Five days free, no card.

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