RatingTheRaces
RatingsLog inFree Trial
Draw Bias · Left-handed · Tapeta and Turf

Newcastle draw bias

What each part of the draw has really been worth at Newcastle, in lengths against the field average, measured from every Flat race here since 2014. Positive figures finish closer to the winner than the field does; negative ones give lengths away at the stalls.

The strongest measured effect: Low draws have cost 1.94L per run over 9f to 11f, across 893 runs.

The whole picture, every trip

Every stalled run at Newcastle together. The trip tables below tell the finer story: a bias at 5f can vanish, or flip, at a mile.

DrawLengths vs field averageRuns
Low-0.59L8,688
Low-middle-0.15L8,715
Middle+0.18L8,488
Middle-high+0.29L8,705
High+0.28L8,690

Over 5f to 6f

DrawLengths vs field averageRuns
Low-0.27L3,127
Low-middle-0.23L3,130
Middle+0.07L3,037
Middle-high+0.18L3,127
High+0.24L3,128

On a standard surface

DrawLengths vs field averageRuns
Low-0.16L2,332
Low-middle-0.30L2,325
Middle+0.01L2,251
Middle-high+0.21L2,320
High+0.24L2,335

On a slow surface

DrawLengths vs field averageRuns
Low-0.63L729
Low-middle-0.11L743
Middle+0.25L722
Middle-high+0.15L745
High+0.36L727

Fields of 2-7 runners

DrawLengths vs field averageRuns
Low-0.01L305
Low-middle-0.53L449
Middle+0.26L414
Middle-high+0.49L447
High-0.28L305

Fields of 8-11 runners

DrawLengths vs field averageRuns
Low-0.30L1,557
Low-middle-0.28L1,363
Middle+0.01L1,515
Middle-high+0.07L1,361
High+0.47L1,554

Fields of 12-15 runners

DrawLengths vs field averageRuns
Low-0.27L1,262
Low-middle-0.08L1,315
Middle+0.08L1,104
Middle-high+0.18L1,316
High+0.09L1,266

Over 7f to 8f

DrawLengths vs field averageRuns
Low-0.40L3,625
Low-middle-0.14L3,603
Middle+0.50L3,539
Middle-high+0.13L3,597
High-0.06L3,624

On a standard surface

DrawLengths vs field averageRuns
Low-0.35L2,659
Low-middle-0.20L2,641
Middle+0.38L2,603
Middle-high+0.14L2,638
High+0.04L2,658

On a slow surface

DrawLengths vs field averageRuns
Low-0.52L902
Low-middle+0.02L899
Middle+0.64L870
Middle-high+0.05L897
High-0.17L902

Fields of 2-7 runners

DrawLengths vs field averageRuns
Low+0.49L395
Low-middle-0.51L574
Middle+0.46L508
Middle-high+0.03L573
High-0.39L395

Fields of 8-11 runners

DrawLengths vs field averageRuns
Low-0.51L1,796
Low-middle-0.06L1,548
Middle+0.39L1,766
Middle-high+0.20L1,545
High+0.01L1,796

Fields of 12-15 runners

DrawLengths vs field averageRuns
Low-0.51L1,431
Low-middle-0.09L1,478
Middle+0.66L1,261
Middle-high+0.08L1,476
High-0.06L1,430

Over 9f to 11f

DrawLengths vs field averageRuns
Low-1.94L893
Low-middle+0.53L929
Middle-0.08L869
Middle-high+0.60L929
High+0.83L896

On a standard surface

DrawLengths vs field averageRuns
Low-1.99L626
Low-middle+0.25L647
Middle+0.06L608
Middle-high+0.77L647
High+0.88L626

On a slow surface

DrawLengths vs field averageRuns
Low-2.09L245
Low-middle+1.01L260
Middle-0.12L238
Middle-high+0.23L260
High+0.89L247

Fields of 2-7 runners

DrawLengths vs field averageRuns
Low-3.06L121
Low-middle+0.08L182
Middle+0.78L154
Middle-high+0.56L184
High+1.08L123

Fields of 8-11 runners

DrawLengths vs field averageRuns
Low-1.68L434
Low-middle+0.86L380
Middle-0.12L413
Middle-high-0.10L380
High+1.13L434

Fields of 12-15 runners

DrawLengths vs field averageRuns
Low-1.85L338
Low-middle+0.40L367
Middle-0.46L302
Middle-high+1.35L365
High+0.37L339

Over 12f to 15f

DrawLengths vs field averageRuns
Low-0.89L659
Low-middle-1.37L672
Middle-0.48L665
Middle-high+1.24L672
High+1.51L657

On a standard surface

DrawLengths vs field averageRuns
Low-1.62L477
Low-middle-1.05L494
Middle+0.13L476
Middle-high+0.98L493
High+1.57L475

On a slow surface

DrawLengths vs field averageRuns
Low+1.24L167
Low-middle-2.46L164
Middle-2.21L173
Middle-high+2.15L164
High+1.36L167

Fields of 2-7 runners

DrawLengths vs field averageRuns
Low-1.02L116
Low-middle-1.10L166
Middle+0.46L157
Middle-high+1.10L167
High+0.38L116

Fields of 8-11 runners

DrawLengths vs field averageRuns
Low-0.66L334
Low-middle-1.22L287
Middle-0.97L321
Middle-high+1.15L287
High+1.65L333

Fields of 12-15 runners

DrawLengths vs field averageRuns
Low-1.19L209
Low-middle-1.76L219
Middle-0.42L187
Middle-high+1.45L218
High+1.91L208

Over 16f to 19f

DrawLengths vs field averageRuns
Low-1.35L384
Low-middle+0.88L381
Middle-0.11L378
Middle-high+0.24L380
High+0.34L385

On a standard surface

DrawLengths vs field averageRuns
Low-1.89L256
Low-middle+0.42L259
Middle+0.37L257
Middle-high+0.30L257
High+0.79L257

On a slow surface

DrawLengths vs field averageRuns
Low-0.20L115
Low-middle+2.05L108
Middle-1.01L109
Middle-high-0.38L109
High-0.40L115

Fields of 8-11 runners

DrawLengths vs field averageRuns
Low-0.76L150
Low-middle-0.42L124
Middle-1.62L134
Middle-high+1.51L124
High+1.32L149

Fields of 12-15 runners

DrawLengths vs field averageRuns
Low+0.56L105
Low-middle+1.83L111
Middle-high-1.56L109
High-3.16L107

Run styles from each part of the draw

Win rates for horses ridden in each early-position style from each part of the draw at Newcastle. A front runner drawn low and one drawn wide are not the same bet, and no course average says so.

DrawLedProminentMidfieldHeld up
Low14.1% of 1,2049.5% of 2,6396.6% of 1,7238.7% of 3,040
Low-middle12.0% of 1,2229.7% of 2,6929.3% of 1,9058.5% of 2,823
Middle13.7% of 1,23912.1% of 2,6859.7% of 1,7348.9% of 2,772
Middle-high13.3% of 1,20011.5% of 2,73112.4% of 1,7398.9% of 2,955
High13.7% of 1,13311.4% of 2,53711.0% of 1,6079.9% of 3,348

How to read these figures

The draw is read as a rank among the stalls actually occupied, cut into five bands from Low to High, so an 8-runner field and a 20-runner field compare honestly. Fallers and horses pulled up carry no beaten distance and are left out of their race’s average, races with fewer than 5 stalled runners are skipped, and a figure is only published where at least 100 runs sit behind it. The full method is on the draw bias index.

This is on every Newcastle racecard

Premium members get the draw read per stall on the card itself, next to the ratings, the pace map and each horse’s own running style. Five days free, no card.

Start the free trial →Today’s racecards →